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Updated Big 12 Odds after 10 games - WVU closing in

  • CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 2 months ago #3499 by CorpusJayhawk
Obviously the whole purpose of odds and statistical projections is assuming all things go according to the established trends. But the super exciting thing about college basketball is the specter of upsets. Imagine the No. 1 Oklahoma losing to Kansas State where the odds are 75% against that. That changes the landscape dramatically. The next 7 days will go a long way to determining the Big 12 title. I can't overstate how vital the next game is for Kansas. A loss for all intents and purposes eliminates KU from contention from a statistical standpoint. As it is we are on the outside looking in with a 25% chance of winning the Big 12. WVU's odds are now up to 75%. LET"S ROCK AND CHALK THESE DUDES!!!
-Projected Conference Wins-		
Team        	Wins	
-----------	------	
West Virginia	13.6	
Oklahoma     	12.4	
Kansas       	12.2	
Iowa St.     	10.9	
Baylor       	10.0	
Texas        	9.8	
Kansas St.   	7.2	
Texas Tech   	6.1	
Oklahoma St. 	5.0	
TCU          	2.8	
--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--		
Team        	Solo	Shared
-----------	------	------
Oklahoma    	10.9%	28.3%
West Virginia	51.3%	75.3%
Kansas      	9.0%	24.5%
Iowa St.    	0.6%	3.9%
Baylor      	0.2%	1.4%
Texas       	0.2%	1.2%
Texas Tech  	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas St.   	0.0%	0.0%
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--		
Opponent   	City        	Prob
-----------	-----------	--------
Baylor      	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma    	Lawrence    	100.0%
Texas Tech  	Lubbock     	100.0%
West Virginia	Morgantown  	0.0%
TCU         	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma St. 	Stillwater  	0.0%
Texas       	Lawrence    	100.0%
Iowa St.     	Ames        	0.0%
Kansas St.   	Lawrence    	100.0%
TCU         	Fort Worth  	100.0%
West Virginia	Lawrence    	61.4%
Oklahoma    	Norman      	38.9%
Oklahoma St. 	Lawrence    	88.3%
Kansas St.   	Manhattan   	59.8%
Baylor      	Waco        	53.9%
Texas Tech  	Lawrence    	86.9%
Texas       	Austin      	62.8%
Iowa St.     	Lawrence    	72.4%
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, JRhawk, Socalhawk, Freestate69, replayloungehawk

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8 years 2 months ago #3508 by konza63
Nicely done, Corpus...and nicely stated.

The next 7 days, indeed, are going to be crucial.

What I found interesting about your table is TEXAS. Nobody's talking about them, and yet there they suddenly and quietly are, tied with KU and OU at 7-3. Do they have such poor odds of winning the conference because of their daunting schedule ahead? Looks like they have a bit of a "back-loaded" schedule when it comes to playing the tougher teams. (Not that ours is that much easier, but just curious if the above is why their win projection and conference championship probability is acutely low relative to the teams they're now tied with.)
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 2 months ago #3510 by LKF_HAWK
I watched Baylor - WVU last night. Huggins, great coach, but annoying as heck. His team is a bunch of thugs, not bad people, but play backyard "no blood no foul" ball and the WVa fans were chanting "we want Kansas".... Well the get us, and I hope we hit them like a express coal train and knock these guys back to Appalachia with their tails between their legs. Hawks have no execuses not to be juiced, 1st place, payback game, and it's at the Phog. I am going to miss this game, but let's get it done boys! RCJHKU!

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8 years 2 months ago #3511 by konza63
I sure hope that one of the KU staffers (if not the players and coaches themselves) saw and heard that, or caught wind of it.

Nothing can spark a team better than being disrespected...along with having been manhandled by them the last time.

I honestly hate WVU's style of play, because it's basically a "We're going to foul on every play to the point where the refs will raise the bar higher and higher on what constitutes a foul, and get away with a full-scale mugging."

What was doubly frustrating about Morgantown is, if everyone recalls, the refs actually kept calling fouls on US (!!!) throughout the first half, to the point where WVU was on the line constantly and we hardly got a sniff of the charity stripe! It was ludicrous.

I hope we kick the snot out of these guys...actually, I like your "Appalachia" description better! :evil: :P :evil:

It's time to put on the kevlar, channel the Old Barn's aura, and stomp some Mountaineer @$#!!!
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 2 months ago #3522 by Slayer2384
My Duh post just to get it out of the way. All we need to do in win out the rest of the way and the worst we do is share the title. Always the optimist.

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8 years 2 months ago #3530 by LSHawk
I'll be there screaming my friggin (to quote HCRW) head off...

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8 years 2 months ago #3538 by LKF_HAWK
Scream twice as loud, I won't be able to watch, stuck in a metal cigar tube ( Intl flight)...hope the refs call an honest game, little home cooking because WVa wins by attrition. The hillbillies play a brand of basketball I thought the new rules were supposed to eliminate.

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8 years 2 months ago #3550 by LSHawk
May the team have the mindset, "If you want the B12 championship, you will have to tear it from our bloody hands."

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