predictions for Princeton game

Princeton lost by 35 on the road to Pomeroy's #78 team, Akron, in the season opener.
Then they played a home game against #263 Bucknell and won by 10.  Their most recent
game was against Division III John Jay College, racking up a big win in the process.
So Princeton and Kansas have identical 2-1 records.

Pomeroy does rank Princeton a bit higher than Corpus Christi, but the predictions
from the usual prognosticators are remarkably similar to last Tuesday's contest.
Except for Colley, whose rankings are dominated by record, and because Kansas and
Princeton have identical records, Colley has them almost identically ranked, making
the home court advantage the main difference.  Yes, Colley's prediction is effectively
less than 4 points in favor of Kansas, while everybody else is over 20.  Pretty
ridiculous.  I'd expect Colley to say that it's too early in the season for the
ratings to mean anything, yet others have gotten around that problem.

The word is that Darryn Peterson will once again sit for the Princeton game.  If
he sits for Duke as well, then I'll believe the hamstring story.  But if he plays
these next several games, and then sits for Towson and Davidson, then I'd question
the truthfulness of the bug/cramp/hamstring stories.

The silver lining is that somebody else will get some minutes to work on their
game, which could come in handy later in the season when foul trouble or a real
injury forces Self to go deeper into the bench.  But without Peterson's scoring
punch, it's probably a good idea to take the under on total points.  We should
also learn whether Rosario's scoring against Corpus Christi was just an anomaly.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats    Prince    KU      Defensive Stats    Prince    KU
Points/Game         71.0    81.7     Opp Points/Game     83.5    61.3
Avg Score Margin   -12.5   +20.3     Opp Effective FG %  55.3    42.8
Assists/Game        11.0    17.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.5     6.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.5    38.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.5    28.7
Effective FG %      46.6    60.8     Blocks/Game          3.0     7.7
Off Rebound %       24.4    25.0     Steals/Game          3.5     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.415   0.367     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.0    14.7
Turnover %          16.2    15.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU            Prince
===================   =============   ============
performance           +3.34           -7.04    
inconsistency         11.30           16.76    
trend                 -3.36 ± 10.8   +23.70 ±  .  
mental toughness      -0.61 ± 0.10    -1.11 ±  .           
average total pts     143.00          154.50 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Dalen Davis (guard)
most points        Dalen Davis (guard)
most rebounds      Malik Abdullahi (forward)
most assists       Dalen Davis (guard)
most steals        four tied
most blocks        C. J. Happy (forward)
most turnovers     four tied
most fouls         Malik Abdullahi (forward)

                                                           2-1            2-1 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Princeton
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +22.00   83   61       97       # 28   # 44    #178   #263
Pomeroy                +23.05   89   66       98.5     # 25   #146    #225   #155
Greenfield             +23.50   85   61.5              # 17   # 14    #221   #250
Dunkel                 +31.00   90   59                # 36           #206
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +23.50   85   61                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +21.39   85   64       95.8     # 11   # 13    #171   #158
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN Bet/BPI           +24.50   85.5 61                # 22   #155    #259   #251
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +3.58                          #119   #235    #124   #153 
Donchess               +22.10   85.5 63       97.4     # 21   #160    #193   #141
Haslametrics           +21.68   85   64                # 17           #185
INCCStats              +21.00   81   60       97.7     # 20           #206
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 29           #216
Pomeroy offense                                        # 43           #235
Pomeroy defense                                        # 12           #209
Pomeroy tempo                                          #226           #195
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +21.57   85.4 62.1     97.3
scatter                  6.57    2.6  2.1      1.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 18-13:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #343 Green Bay                   94  51   +30.07   +12.93
AWAY   # 23 North Carolina              74  87    -3.88    -9.12
HOME   #267 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      77  46   +24.80    +6.20
HOME   #225 Princeton                   89  66   +23.05             0.985
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        76  83    -6.40             0.273
NEUT   # 71 Notre Dame                  80  74    +5.99             0.714
NEUT   # 57 Syracuse                    83  78    +5.16             0.687
NEUT   #  2 Houston                     69  75    -6.05             0.284
HOME   #  6 Connecticut                 77  79    -1.44             0.446
NEUT   # 29 Missouri                    82  82    +0.30             0.511
AWAY   # 21 N.C. State                  78  82    -4.17             0.347
HOME   #128 Towson                      79  63   +16.53             0.941
HOME   #118 Davidson                    84  68   +16.03             0.935
AWAY   # 65 UCF                         84  81    +2.32             0.587
HOME   # 83 TCU                         83  71   +11.89             0.869
AWAY   # 62 West Virginia               72  71    +1.67             0.563
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    78  79    -0.76             0.471
HOME   # 27 Baylor                      82  79    +3.65             0.635
AWAY   # 97 Colorado                    84  78    +6.28             0.724
AWAY   # 60 Kansas St.                  84  82    +1.99             0.574
HOME   # 18 BYU                         81  79    +1.99             0.574
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  75  81    -5.43             0.304
HOME   #100 Utah                        87  73   +13.60             0.901
HOME   # 11 Arizona                     82  82    -0.09             0.497
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    75  82    -7.76             0.232
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma St.                83  82    +1.25             0.547
HOME   # 40 Cincinnati                  80  74    +6.11             0.718
HOME   #  2 Houston                     71  73    -2.55             0.405
AWAY   # 11 Arizona                     78  86    -7.09             0.251
AWAY   # 82 Arizona St.                 81  76    +4.68             0.671
HOME   # 60 Kansas St.                  88  79    +8.99             0.802

Here is Princeton's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 78 Akron                       69 104   -16.11   -18.89
HOME   #263 Bucknell                    73  63    +5.19    +4.81
Div3        John Jay                   100  59
AWAY   # 25 Kansas                      66  89   -23.05             0.015