predictions for Texas A&M Corpus Christi game

Your mileage may vary, but what stood out to me was how North Carolina got so
many offensive rebounds and second-chance points, plus how easily Veesaar got
to the rim uncontested in the second half.  That's the sort of scoring play I
was expecting to see from Bidunga being fed by Peterson.  Tiller fouling out
hurt as well, given how hot he was from three-point distance.  So we have the
for-real game against Carolina and the exhibition against Louisville that show
a lot more inconsistency than I'd like to see.

Anyway, that game is now in the rear-view mirror, and attention shifts to the
Islanders from Corpus Christi.  The second of three cupcakes on the schedule,
the various prognostications average a 22 point margin for Kansas and a 98
percent chance of winning.  Ho hum.  That margin is suppressed by Colley's
13 point margin, easily the smallest of the bunch, but Colley has all the
undefeated teams (who have played games) ranked ahead of those with one loss,
so his ratings are incredibly suspect at this stage of the season.  Also, I'm
still using the scaling factor (from ratings units to points) from last season,
which in turn is based on the last time Sagarin did college basketball ratings.
Omit Colley's prediction, and the average is closer to 23 points.

Dunkel has his picks up for Tuesday, but the Kansas game is not listed among
them.  Is he unaware of the game, or simply ignoring such mismatches?

Corpus Christi has played three games, though only two against Division I
competition, losing both.  Their sole win came against a Division III
opponent.  The Islanders did play SMU tougher than expected, so expect a
better game than against Green Bay.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats    TAMUCC    KU      Defensive Stats    TAMUCC    KU
Points/Game         67.5    84.0     Opp Points/Game     77.0    69.0
Avg Score Margin    -9.5   +15.0     Opp Effective FG %  48.1    47.5
Assists/Game        14.0    17.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     13.0     7.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.5    35.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     20.5    26.0
Effective FG %      42.3    60.3     Blocks/Game          3.5     5.5
Off Rebound %       31.3    27.3     Steals/Game          4.0     6.0
FTA/FGA            0.379   0.336     Personal Fouls/Gm   24.5    16.5
Turnover %          14.2    11.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU            TAMUCC
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.37           +2.46    
inconsistency         15.81           10.87    
trend                -22.36 ±  .     -15.38 ±  .  
mental toughness      -0.66 ±  .      +0.84 ±  .           
average total pts     153.00          148.00 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Sheldon Williams (forward)
most points        Sheldon Williams (forward)
most rebounds      Sheldon Williams (forward)
most assists       D'Avian Houston (guard)
most steals        Mason Gibson (guard)
most blocks        Cedric Horton (guard)
most turnovers     D'Avian Houston (guard)
most fouls         Kayden Crosby (forward)

                                                           1-1            1-2 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         TAMUCC
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +22.00   83   61       97       # 28   # 31    #232   #145
Pomeroy                +24.47   90   66       99.0     # 28   #146    #262   #111
Greenfield             +25.50   86.5 61                # 21   # 11    #230   #168
Dunkel                                                 #              #   
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                             
Dolphin Predictive     +21.74   85   63       96.1     # 15   #  8    #214   #125
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN Bet/BPI           +25.50   86.5 61                # 24   #109    #204   #184
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix          +12.82                          #161   #168    #358   #144 
Donchess               +23.00   85   62       97.8     # 17   #128    #215   #123
Haslametrics           +23.16   85   62                # 15           #202
INCCStats              +22.00   82   60       98.1     # 21           #239
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 29           #232
Pomeroy offense                                        # 37           #280
Pomeroy defense                                        # 16           #222
Pomeroy tempo                                          #231           #218
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +22.24   85.4 62.0     97.6
scatter                  3.82    2.4  1.9      1.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 18-13:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #337 Green Bay                   94  51   +29.45   +13.55
AWAY   # 23 North Carolina              74  87    -4.19    -8.81
HOME   #262 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      90  66   +24.47             0.990
HOME   #247 Princeton                   92  68   +23.94             0.988
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        76  82    -5.62             0.298
NEUT   # 71 Notre Dame                  82  76    +6.07             0.717
NEUT   # 59 Syracuse                    84  79    +4.98             0.681
NEUT   #  2 Houston                     71  76    -5.80             0.292
HOME   #  5 Connecticut                 78  80    -1.77             0.434
NEUT   # 35 Missouri                    84  83    +1.66             0.562
AWAY   # 25 N.C. State                  79  82    -3.65             0.365
HOME   #132 Towson                      83  66   +16.74             0.943
HOME   #130 Davidson                    87  70   +17.08             0.947
AWAY   # 82 UCF                         86  82    +4.62             0.669
HOME   # 92 TCU                         85  73   +12.15             0.875
AWAY   # 75 West Virginia               75  71    +3.40             0.626
HOME   #  9 Iowa St.                    79  80    -1.18             0.456
HOME   # 19 Baylor                      81  79    +2.24             0.584
AWAY   #102 Colorado                    84  77    +6.73             0.738
AWAY   # 56 Kansas St.                  82  81    +1.07             0.540
HOME   # 16 BYU                         82  81    +1.27             0.548
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  77  83    -6.06             0.283
HOME   # 98 Utah                        88  74   +13.38             0.897
HOME   # 11 Arizona                     85  85    -0.14             0.495
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    75  84    -8.18             0.220
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma St.                84  83    +0.58             0.522
HOME   # 43 Cincinnati                  80  74    +6.15             0.719
HOME   #  2 Houston                     72  75    -2.30             0.414
AWAY   # 11 Arizona                     81  88    -7.14             0.250
AWAY   # 77 Arizona St.                 82  78    +4.12             0.651
HOME   # 56 Kansas St.                  86  78    +8.07             0.777

Here is Texas A&M Corpus Christi season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div3        Trinity                     83  56
AWAY   # 50 SMU                         58  69   -21.14   +10.14
AWAY   #279 Tarleton St.                77  85    -2.77    -5.23
AWAY   # 28 Kansas                      66  90   -24.47             0.010