predictions for North Carolina game

Big game.  Wish there was more to go on than just one game apiece against a cupcake.

Only Dunkel is picking the Jayhawks to win.  The rest have Kansas losing by anywhere
from 1 to 4 points.  But given that the standard deviation for the difference between
the actual and predicted margins is up around 9 to 10 points for college basketball,
this game is effectively a toss-up.  Kansas is the higher ranked of the two teams,
though rankings aren't based on a lot of factual data at this early stage of the season,
but North Carolina has the home court advantage.  Curiously, the one prognosticator who
has North Carolina ranked higher than Kansas is Dunkel, yet he is picking the Jayhawks
to win, despite the Tar Heels having the home court advantage.  Go figure.  Or maybe I
just don't understand Dunkel's ranking system, because Dunkel also shows a numerical
rating value, and Kansas has the higher rating by about 3 rating units.  Makes no sense
to me.  Shouldn't the higher rated team have a better ranking?

Both teams have highly touted freshmen.  Who has the better supporting cast?

How many dunks will Bidunga get because Peterson gets double-teamed?  Darryn does seem
to have a way of finding Flory in such situations.  

Let's see if we can pull off the trifecta and sweep the state of North Carolina again
by beating the Tar Heels, the Wolfpack, and the Blue Devils.  Tall order, but hey, we
did it last season, with a victory over Wilmington as well.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UNC     KU      Defensive Stats      UNC     KU
Points/Game         94.0    94.0     Opp Points/Game     54.0    51.0
Avg Score Margin   +40.0   +43.0     Opp Effective FG %  37.5    35.7
Assists/Game        23.0    20.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.0     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   45.0    44.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     30.0    35.0
Effective FG %      58.5    65.5     Blocks/Game          3.0     8.0
Off Rebound %       36.7    34.6     Steals/Game         13.0     6.0
FTA/FGA            0.338   0.414     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.0    15.0
Turnover %          13.7     4.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UNC 
===================   =============   ============
performance          +11.94           +8.36    
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .   ±  .        .   ±  .  
mental toughness        .   ±  .        .   ±  .           
average total pts     145.00          148.00 

Common Opponents
================
None.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Henri Vesaaw (center), Kyan Evans (guard), Caleb Wilson (forward)
most points        Caleb Wilson (forward)
most rebounds      Henri Ceesaae (center)
most assists       Kyan Evans (guard), Luka Bogavac (guard)
most steals        Kyan Evans (guard)
most blocks        Henri Vesaaw (center), Zayden High (forward), Caleb Wilson (forward)
most turnovers     Henri Vesaaw (center), Seth Trimble (guard), Kyan Evans (guard), Caleb Wilson (forward)
most fouls         Derek Dixon (guard)

                                                           1-0            1-0 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     North Carolina
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -3.00   73   76       43       # 17   #244    # 21   #254
Pomeroy                 -1.39   81   83       44.5     # 19   #260    # 30   #269
Greenfield              -1.50   78   79                # 10   #191    # 26   #242
Dunkel                  +3.00   77   74                # 31           # 23
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.50   78   80                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -4.01   71   75       37.3     #  7   #250    # 17   #271
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN Bet/BPI            -1.50   77.5 79                # 18   #250    # 48   #255
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix                                          #      #       #      #    
Donchess                -2.20   76   78       44.8     # 16   #331    # 17   #351
Haslametrics            -2.97   76   79                # 15           # 18
INCCStats               -1.00   75   76       47.2     # 14           # 26
common opponents                                     
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 20           # 24
Pomeroy offense                                        # 35           # 25
Pomeroy defense                                        #  7           # 42
Pomeroy tempo                                          #204           # 32
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -1.61   76.3 77.9     43.4
scatter                  1.87    2.8  2.7      3.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #337 Green Bay                   94  51   +31.06   +11.94
AWAY   # 30 North Carolina              81  83    -1.39             0.448
HOME   #245 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      88  63   +25.35             0.992
HOME   #203 Princeton                   89  65   +23.77             0.988
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        76  79    -3.74             0.362
NEUT   # 71 Notre Dame                  80  72    +8.19             0.780
NEUT   # 62 Syracuse                    84  77    +6.93             0.744
NEUT   #  2 Houston                     71  76    -5.07             0.316
HOME   #  7 Connecticut                 77  77    -0.06             0.498
NEUT   # 29 Missouri                    82  80    +1.66             0.562
AWAY   # 32 N.C. State                  78  80    -1.40             0.447
HOME   #133 Towson                      84  65   +18.55             0.960
HOME   #149 Davidson                    87  67   +20.14             0.972
AWAY   # 72 UCF                         84  79    +5.31             0.692
HOME   # 87 TCU                         85  72   +13.60             0.901
AWAY   # 78 West Virginia               76  71    +5.03             0.683
HOME   # 12 Iowa St.                    77  76    +1.61             0.560
HOME   # 21 Baylor                      81  77    +3.87             0.643
AWAY   # 94 Colorado                    82  75    +7.27             0.754
AWAY   # 57 Kansas St.                  82  79    +2.77             0.603
HOME   # 17 BYU                         82  79    +3.05             0.613
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  76  81    -4.98             0.319
HOME   # 80 Utah                        86  73   +12.61             0.883
HOME   # 10 Arizona                     84  83    +1.21             0.545
AWAY   # 12 Iowa St.                    74  79    -5.39             0.305
AWAY   # 70 Oklahoma St.                86  81    +5.27             0.691
HOME   # 33 Cincinnati                  79  73    +5.78             0.708
HOME   #  2 Houston                     72  74    -1.57             0.441
AWAY   # 10 Arizona                     81  87    -5.79             0.292
AWAY   # 73 Arizona St.                 82  76    +5.29             0.691
HOME   # 57 Kansas St.                  85  75    +9.77             0.822

Here is North Carolina's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #348 Central Arkansas            94  54   +31.64    +8.36
HOME   # 19 Kansas                      83  81    +1.39             0.552