preseason projection

Asteroids returning to perihelion -- it's so predictable.

What is not so predictable is the potential third game in the Players Era Tournament.
As near as I can tell, only four teams from the eighteen-team pool will play in the
so-called "Premier Four", but according to ncaa.com, "Additional men's matchups
will air Nov. 26 and Nov. 27 based on the first two days of competition."  Does that
guarantee a third game for all 18 contestants?  Anyway, for purposes of projecting
the season record, I've selected the highest-ranked team, according to Pomeroy,
that is participating in the tournament, which happens to be Houston.  Unlike other
tournaments played around Thanksgiving, games between members of the same
conference appear to be quite possible.

Kansas managed only a #21 ranking in Pomeroy's starting ratings, so you probably
won't be surprised to see the season projection at 19 wins and 12 losses.  Lots of
talent on this Jayhawk squad, but not a lot of experience.  Should be interesting.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #326 Green Bay                   93  63   +29.69             0.997
AWAY   # 33 North Carolina              80  82    -1.80             0.432
HOME   #266 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      89  63   +25.50             0.992
HOME   #211 Princeton                   87  64   +22.74             0.984
NEUT   #  7 Duke                        76  79    -3.68             0.364
NEUT   # 77 Notre Dame                  78  70    +7.76             0.768
NEUT   # 68 Syracuse                    83  76    +7.21             0.752
NEUT   #  1 Houston                     69  76    -6.93             0.256
HOME   #  5 Connecticut                 75  77    -1.56             0.441
NEUT   # 28 Missouri                    80  79    +0.98             0.537
AWAY   # 38 N.C. State                  76  77    -1.43             0.446
HOME   #142 Towson                      83  65   +18.22             0.957
HOME   #150 Davidson                    86  66   +19.18             0.965
AWAY   # 64 UCF                         80  77    +3.22             0.619
HOME   # 66 TCU                         81  71   +10.22             0.833
AWAY   # 67 West Virginia               74  71    +3.18             0.618
HOME   # 13 Iowa St.                    76  74    +1.40             0.553
HOME   # 17 Baylor                      77  75    +1.97             0.574
AWAY   # 83 Colorado                    79  74    +5.21             0.689
AWAY   # 61 Kansas St.                  79  76    +2.42             0.590
HOME   # 18 BYU                         82  79    +2.23             0.583
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  73  79    -5.61             0.298
HOME   # 74 Utah                        83  72   +11.27             0.857
HOME   # 15 Arizona                     82  80    +1.56             0.559
AWAY   # 13 Iowa St.                    72  78    -5.60             0.298
AWAY   # 69 Oklahoma St.                83  79    +4.16             0.653
HOME   # 36 Cincinnati                  76  71    +5.36             0.694
HOME   #  1 Houston                     70  74    -3.43             0.373
AWAY   # 15 Arizona                     78  84    -5.44             0.304
AWAY   # 75 Arizona St.                 80  76    +4.40             0.661
HOME   # 61 Kansas St.                  82  73    +9.42             0.813