predictions for Arizona game

[chant]  NINE MORE GAMES!  NINE MORE GAMES!  NINE MORE GAMES!

Could potentially get to 30 wins on the season.

Overtime yesterday.  The average of the prognostications suggests that today's game
is the one to go into overtime.  Five of them call for Kansas to win, by up to 3
points, while the other eleven call for Arizona to win, by up to 3 points.  Should
be a one-possession affair, either way.  Or maybe we'll be celebrating a coming out
party for AJ and we'll win comfortably.  Or maybe we'll pull a Houston and snatch
defeat from the jaws of victory.  The average favors Arizona by 0.4 of a point.

[chant]  NINE MORE GAMES!  NINE MORE GAMES!  NINE MORE GAMES!

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UA      KU      Defensive Stats      UA      KU
Points/Game         82.0    76.2     Opp Points/Game     72.1    68.7
Avg Score Margin    +9.9    +7.5     Opp Effective FG %  48.3    45.8
Assists/Game        16.8    17.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.7     8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.9    38.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.7    26.1
Effective FG %      52.6    53.1     Blocks/Game          4.4     4.8
Off Rebound %       35.1    27.9     Steals/Game          7.9     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.371   0.245     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.5    14.2
Turnover %          13.9    14.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UA 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.11           +2.00    
inconsistency         13.34           11.38    
trend                 -0.30 ± 0.25    -0.16 ± 0.23
mental toughness      -0.23 ± 0.25    -0.44 ± 0.18         
average total pts     144.88          154.03 

Common Opponents
================
There are fifteen common opponents, all 14 other conference members plus Duke, three
of which Kansas has played twice (Colorado, Kansas State, Houston), one of which
Kansas has played three times (UCF), five of which Arizona has played twice (West
Virginia, Baylor, Texas Tech, Arizona State, BYU, though one of those West Virginia
games was a non-conference neutral court tournament game), one of which both have
played twice (Iowa State), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us twenty seven
scores to compare:

KU   +3 Duk neutral ( +3 neutral court)
UA  -14 Duk at home (-18 neutral court)
KU  +21 UA  neutral (+21 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)     KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
UA   -7 WVU neutral ( -7 neutral court)     UA  +19 WVU on road (+23 neutral court)
KU   +2 UA  neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU  -28 UA  neutral (-28 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
UA   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU  +12 UA  neutral (+12 neutral court)

KU  +14 UC  on road (+18 neutral court)
UA   +5 UC  on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU   +9 UA  neutral ( +9 neutral court)

KU   +4 UCF at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)
UA   +8 UCF at home ( +4 neutral court)     UA   +8 UCF at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU   -4 UA  neutral ( -4 neutral court)     KU  +51 UA  neutral (+51 neutral court)

KU   +4 UCF neutral ( +4 neutral court)
UA   +8 UCF at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU    0 UA  neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)     KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
UA  +11 BU  at home ( +7 neutral court)     UA   +7 BU  on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  -14 UA  neutral (-14 neutral court)     KU  -18 UA  neutral (-18 neutral court)

KU   -5 TTU at home ( -9 neutral court)     KU   -5 TTU at home ( -9 neutral court)
UA  -16 TTU on road (-12 neutral court)     UA   +9 TTU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +3 UA  neutral ( +3 neutral court)     KU  -14 UA  neutral (-14 neutral court)

KU  +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)
UA  +14 OSU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU  +10 UA  neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU  +12 CU  at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +7 CU  on road (+11 neutral court)
UA  +15 CU  at home (+11 neutral court)     UA  +15 CU  at home (+11 neutral court)
KU   -3 UA  neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU    0 UA  neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU  +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
UA  +11 ISU at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU   +6 UA  neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU    0 UA  neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU  +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU  +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
UA   +9 ASU on road (+13 neutral court)     UA  +13 ASU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   +2 UA  neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +6 UA  neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU  -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)     KU  -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)
UA  +11 BYU on road (+15 neutral court)     UA   -1 BYU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU  -45 UA  neutral (-45 neutral court)     KU  -33 UA  neutral (-33 neutral court)

KU   -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU  +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
UA   -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court)     UA   -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -5 UA  neutral ( -5 neutral court)     KU   +5 UA  neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU   -6 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)     KU   -6 UH  on road ( -2 neutral court)
UA   -4 UH  at home ( -8 neutral court)     UA   -4 UH  at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU   -2 UA  neutral ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +6 UA  neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU   -7 UU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
UA  +17 UU  at home (+13 neutral court)
KU  -16 UA  neutral (-16 neutral court)

KU   +7 UA  at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +3 UA  neutral ( +3 neutral court)

Thirteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, eleven favor Arizona, and three are a wash.
The average is 1.70 points in favor of Arizona, with a scatter of 17.94 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Caleb Love (guard)
most points        Caleb Love (guard)
most rebounds      Tobe Awaka (forward)
most assists       Jaden Bradley (guard)
most steals        Jaden Bradley (guard)
most blocks        Henri Veesaae (forward)
most turnovers     K. J. Lewis (guard)
most fouls         Tobe Awaka (forward)

Reserve center Motiejus Krivas is out with a leg injury.  He's ninth on the team
in minutes per game and seventh in points per game.

                                                          21-11          20-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Arizona
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -3.00   74   77       39       # 20   #  4    # 16   #  5
Pomeroy                 -0.84   76   77       46.8     # 21   # 11    # 16   #  9
Greenfield              -1.50   75   76.5              # 15   #  7    # 10   #  5
Dunkel                  +3.00   76   73                # 32           # 29
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.50   75   77                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -1.06   75   76       46.4     # 20   # 10    # 13   #  7
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   75   74       47       # 22   #  8    # 19   #  5
Real Time               +2.00   72   70       53.6     # 26   # 10    # 44   # 20
DPPI                    -0.90   75   76       72.1     # 18   #  5    # 14   # 11 
ESPN BPI                -0.80                 46.9     # 12   #  5    # 10   #  7
Whitlock                -0.72                          # 21   #  6    # 18   #  8
Colley Matrix           +0.91                          # 27   # 10    # 36   # 19
Donchess                +0.70   76   76       51.2     # 28   #  6    # 23   # 16
Haslametrics            -0.84   75   76                # 17           # 13
INCCStats               -1.00   76   77       45       # 19           # 12
common opponents        -1.70             
NCAA NET                                               # 18           # 72
LRMC                                                   # 14   #  5    # 60   # 18
Massey composite                                       # 22           # 21
Pomeroy offense                                        # 47           # 14
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 30
Pomeroy tempo                                          #112           # 52
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -0.39   75.0 75.5     49.8
scatter                  1.52    1.1  2.1      9.3

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #312 Howard                      87  57   +29.30    +0.70
HOME   # 35 North Carolina              92  89    +6.91    -3.91
NEUT   #  8 Michigan St.                77  69    -2.59   +10.59
HOME   #178 Oakland                     78  57   +19.66    +1.34
HOME   #107 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +15.76    +2.24
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        75  72   -10.57   +13.57
HOME   #137 Furman                      86  51   +17.80   +17.20
AWAY   # 36 Creighton                   63  76    -0.16   -12.84
AWAY   # 20 Missouri                    67  76    -3.84    -5.16
HOME   #125 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.66    -1.66
HOME   #209 Brown                       87  53   +21.67   +12.33
HOME   # 54 West Virginia               61  62    +9.20   -10.20
AWAY   # 69 UCF                         99  48    +5.34   +45.66
HOME   # 74 Arizona St.                 74  55   +12.19    +6.81
AWAY   # 56 Cincinnati                  54  40    +2.45   +11.55
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    57  74    -5.99   -11.01
HOME   # 67 Kansas St.                  84  74   +11.34    -1.34
AWAY   # 87 TCU                         74  61    +6.56    +6.44
HOME   #  3 Houston                     86  92    -3.52    -2.48
HOME   # 69 UCF                         91  87   +12.34    -8.34
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      70  81    -1.61    -9.39
HOME   #  9 Iowa St.                    69  52    +1.01   +15.99
AWAY   # 67 Kansas St.                  73  81    +4.34   -12.34
HOME   # 84 Colorado                    71  59   +13.50    -1.50
AWAY   # 77 Utah                        67  74    +5.65   -12.65
AWAY   # 24 BYU                         57  91    -2.69   -31.31
HOME   # 99 Oklahoma St.                96  64   +16.03   +15.97
AWAY   # 84 Colorado                    71  64    +6.50    +0.50
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  73  78    +0.33    -5.33
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     59  65   -10.52    +4.52           CUMU.
HOME   # 16 Arizona                     83  76    +2.66    +4.34           PROB.
NEUT   # 69 UCF                         98  94    +8.84    -4.84           -----
NEUT   # 16 Arizona                     76  77    -0.84             0.468  0.468
NEUT   #  7 Texas Tech                  71  74    -3.17             0.382  0.179
NEUT   #  3 Houston                     61  68    -7.02             0.253  0.045

Here is Arizona's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #359 Canisius                    93  64   +36.12    -7.12
HOME   #285 Old Dominion               102  44   +27.50   +30.50
AWAY   # 12 Wisconsin                   88 103    -3.92   -11.08
HOME   #  1 Duke                        55  69    -6.48    -7.52
NEUT   #144 Davidson                   104  71   +15.64   +17.36
NEUT   # 38 Oklahoma                    77  82    +4.79    -9.79
NEUT   # 54 West Virginia               76  83    +6.62   -13.62
HOME   #295 Southern Utah              102  66   +29.06    +6.94
NEUT   # 25 UCLA                        54  57    +1.61    -4.61
HOME   #116 Samford                     96  64   +18.59   +13.41
HOME   #201 Central Michigan            94  41   +22.92   +30.08
HOME   # 87 TCU                         90  81   +14.60    -5.60
AWAY   # 56 Cincinnati                  72  67    +3.39    +1.61
AWAY   # 54 West Virginia               75  56    +3.12   +15.88
HOME   # 69 UCF                         88  80   +13.40    -5.40
HOME   # 28 Baylor                      81  70    +6.23    +4.77
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                  54  70    -5.93   -10.07
AWAY   # 99 Oklahoma St.                92  78   +10.15    +3.85
HOME   # 84 Colorado                    78  63   +14.53    +0.47
HOME   #  9 Iowa St.                    86  75    +1.81    +9.19
AWAY   # 74 Arizona St.                 81  72    +6.22    +2.78
AWAY   # 24 BYU                         85  74    -1.84   +12.84
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  82  73    +1.07    +7.93
AWAY   # 67 Kansas St.                  70  73    +5.33    -8.33
HOME   #  3 Houston                     58  62    -2.93    -1.07
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      74  67    -0.77    +7.77
HOME   # 24 BYU                         95  96    +5.16    -6.16
HOME   # 77 Utah                        83  66   +13.68    +3.32
AWAY   #  9 Iowa St.                    67  84    -5.19   -11.81
HOME   # 74 Arizona St.                113 100   +13.22    -0.22
AWAY   # 21 Kansas                      76  83    -2.66    -4.34
NEUT   # 21 Kansas                      77  76    +0.84             0.532