predictions for UCF game

[chant]  TEN MORE GAMES!  TEN MORE GAMES!  TEN MORE GAMES!

Could potentially get to 30 wins on the season.

Better late than never.  LRMC is finally on board for this season.  They
usually do join the fun pretty late in the season, but it seems they're
much later than usual this season.  No predictions, just rankings.  At
#14, Kansas would be deserving of a 4 seed in the Big Dance.

The average of the various prognostications is 9.5 points in favor of
Kansas.  UCF did play more than 9.5 points above expectation against Utah
yesterday, but otherwise you have to back up 14 games to find another
performance more than 9.5 points above expectation, and that was at home
against TCU.  They've done it only four times all season out of 32 games,
for just a 12.5 percent chance of beating Kansas.  Meanwhile, Kansas has
played below expectation by more than 9.5 points on seven occasions this
season, for a 22.6 percent chance of losing to UCF.

The Knights lost to Kansas by 51 points in Orlando, but by only 4 points
later on in Lawrence.  Continue that trend, and they'll blow away the
Jayhawks this time around.  Or maybe both were statistical flukes.
Kansas City is closer to being a home game for the Jayhawks than it is
a road game, and that game in Orlando is still a more than four sigma
outlier, so I wouldn't expect a repeat of a blowout.  UCF is a bit of
an oddity, being ranked 12 spots higher than TCU by Pomeroy, but having
won two fewer conference games.  Part of that is the unbalanced schedules,
and part of that is TCU being a bit of an oddity.

But here we are, the postseason.  One could call the Big 12 Tournament
one last chance for a tune-up before the Big Dance, but heck, why shouldn't
the pre-season #1 have a decent shot at winning the automatic bid to the
Big Dance?  Would certainly help the seeding situation come Selection Sunday.

[chant]  TEN MORE GAMES!  TEN MORE GAMES!  TEN MORE GAMES!

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UCF     KU      Defensive Stats      UCF     KU
Points/Game         78.8    75.5     Opp Points/Game     79.6    67.9
Avg Score Margin    -0.7    +7.6     Opp Effective FG %  51.1    45.4
Assists/Game        14.0    17.6     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.3     8.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.8    38.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.6    26.0
Effective FG %      49.1    53.2     Blocks/Game          4.5     4.8
Off Rebound %       30.2    27.7     Steals/Game          7.7     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.363   0.242     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.1    14.1
Turnover %          14.7    14.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UCF
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.13           -1.08    
inconsistency         13.50           11.94    
trend                 -0.29 ± 0.27    +0.09 ± 0.23
mental toughness      -0.24 ± 0.26    +0.07 ± 0.22         
average total pts     143.35          158.41 

Common Opponents
================
There are fourteen common opponents, all conference members, two of which Kansas
has played twice (Houston, Kansas State), three of which UCF has played twice (TCU,
Oklahoma State, Utah), and two of which both have playd twice (Colorado, Iowa State)
plus the two head-to-head games, giving us twenty three scores to compare:

KU   -5 TTU at home ( -9 neutral court)
UCF  +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  -17 UCF neutral (-17 neutral court)

KU  +12 CU  at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +7 CU  on road (+11 neutral court)
UCF  +1 CU  at home ( -3 neutral court)     UCF -13 CU  on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU  +11 UCF neutral (+11 neutral court)     KU  +20 UCF neutral (+20 neutral court)

KU   +7 UA  at home ( +3 neutral court)
UCF  -8 UA  on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU   +7 UCF neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
UCF  +6 ASU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU   +5 UCF neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU   -6 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)     KU   -6 UH  on road ( -2 neutral court)
UCF  -1 UH  at home ( -5 neutral court)     UCF  -1 UH  at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU   -5 UCF neutral ( -5 neutral court)     KU   +3 UCF neutral ( +3 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU  +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)
UCF -25 ISU on road (-21 neutral court)     UCF -12 ISU at home (-16 neutral court)
KU   +8 UCF neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +29 UCF neutral (+29 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
UCF +27 TCU at home (+23 neutral court)     UCF -11 TCU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU   -6 UCF neutral ( -6 neutral court)     KU  +24 UCF neutral (+24 neutral court)

KU  -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)
UCF  -6 BYU at home (-10 neutral court)
KU  -20 UCF neutral (-20 neutral court)

KU  +14 UC  on road (+18 neutral court)
UCF -10 UC  at home (-14 neutral court)
KU  +32 UCF neutral (+32 neutral court)

KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
UCF -15 BU  on road (-11 neutral court)
KU   +4 UCF neutral ( +4 neutral court)

KU  +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)     KU  +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)
UCF  -9 OSU on road ( -5 neutral court)     UCF +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +33 UCF neutral (+33 neutral court)     KU  +19 UCF neutral (+19 neutral court)

KU   -7 UU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -7 UU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
UCF  +4 UU  at home (  0 neutral court)     UCF +15 UU  neutral (+15 neutral court)
KU   -3 UCF neutral ( -3 neutral court)     KU  -18 UCF neutral (-18 neutral court)

KU  +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
UCF  +4 KSU at home (  0 neutral court)     UCF  +4 KSU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   +6 UCF neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -4 UCF neutral ( -4 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
UCF  -7 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -2 UCF neutral ( -2 neutral court)

KU  +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)     KU   +4 UCF at home (  0 neutral court)
KU  +55 UCF neutral (+55 neutral court)     KU    0 UCF neutral (  0 neutral court)

Fourteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, eight favor UCF, and one is a wash.  The
average is 7.87 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 18.23 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Darius Johnson (guard)
most points        Keyshawn Hall (guard)
most rebounds      Keyshawn Hall (guard)
most assists       Darius Johnson (guard)
most steals        Darius Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Moustapha Thiam (center)
most turnovers     Keyshawn Hall (guard)
most fouls         Moustapha Thiam (center)

Reserve forward Rokas Jocius has a foot injury and is questionable for the game.
Reserve guard Mikey Williams is injured and questionable for the game.
Reserve guard Jaylin Sellers is injured with no timetable for return to action.
Reserve guard Cameron Simpson is injured with no timetable for return to action.

                                                          20-11          17-15
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           UCF
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +9.00   80   71       80       # 21   #  4    # 65   # 36
Pomeroy                 +9.11   83   74       80.5     # 21   #  9    # 70   # 44
Greenfield             +10.50   83   72                # 14   #  7    # 66   # 52
Dunkel                 +17.50   88   71                # 32           # 82
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.50   83   73                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +10.22   83   72       80.7     # 20   # 10    # 68   # 53
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   81   70       74       # 19   #  8    #123   # 22
Real Time               +8.00   73   65       64.8     # 27   #  9    #102   # 33
DPPI                    +7.60   80   72       72.1     # 16   #  5    # 54   # 28 
ESPN BPI                +9.70                 82.4     # 12   #  5    # 67   # 32
Whitlock                +7.71                          # 21   #  6    # 75   # 29
Colley Matrix           +6.64                          # 27   # 10    # 77   # 35
Donchess                +8.30   81   72       77.4     # 28   #  6    # 73   # 32
Haslametrics            +9.87   82   72                # 16           # 61
INCCStats               +9.00   83   74       80       # 17           # 70
common opponents        +7.87             
NCAA NET                                               # 18           # 72
LRMC                                                   # 14   #  5    # 60   # 18
Massey composite                                       # 22           # 75
Pomeroy offense                                        # 50           # 57
Pomeroy defense                                        #  8           #109
Pomeroy tempo                                          #117           # 12
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9.47   81.7 71.5     76.9
scatter                  2.45    3.5  2.4      5.7

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #313 Howard                      87  57   +29.47    +0.53
HOME   # 37 North Carolina              92  89    +7.55    -4.55
NEUT   #  8 Michigan St.                77  69    -2.38   +10.38
HOME   #178 Oakland                     78  57   +19.77    +1.23
HOME   #106 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +15.80    +2.20
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        75  72   -10.42   +13.42
HOME   #136 Furman                      86  51   +17.91   +17.09
AWAY   # 36 Creighton                   63  76    -0.03   -12.97
AWAY   # 20 Missouri                    67  76    -3.71    -5.29
HOME   #125 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.77    -1.77
HOME   #208 Brown                       87  53   +21.70   +12.30
HOME   # 51 West Virginia               61  62    +8.87    -9.87
AWAY   # 70 UCF                         99  48    +5.61   +45.39
HOME   # 74 Arizona St.                 74  55   +12.32    +6.68
AWAY   # 53 Cincinnati                  54  40    +2.18   +11.82
AWAY   # 10 Iowa St.                    57  74    -5.37   -11.63
HOME   # 64 Kansas St.                  84  74   +11.14    -1.14
AWAY   # 87 TCU                         74  61    +6.75    +6.25
HOME   #  3 Houston                     86  92    -3.39    -2.61
HOME   # 70 UCF                         91  87   +12.61    -8.61
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                      70  81    -1.15    -9.85
HOME   # 10 Iowa St.                    69  52    +1.63   +15.37
AWAY   # 64 Kansas St.                  73  81    +4.14   -12.14
HOME   # 90 Colorado                    71  59   +14.09    -2.09
AWAY   # 77 Utah                        67  74    +5.77   -12.77
AWAY   # 24 BYU                         57  91    -2.62   -31.38
HOME   # 97 Oklahoma St.                96  64   +16.15   +15.85
AWAY   # 90 Colorado                    71  64    +7.09    -0.09
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  73  78    +0.40    -5.40           CUMU.
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     59  65   -10.39    +4.39           PROB.
HOME   # 16 Arizona                     83  76    +2.80    +4.20           -----
NEUT   # 70 UCF                         83  74    +9.11             0.805  0.805
NEUT   # 16 Arizona                     76  77    -0.70             0.474  0.382
NEUT   #  7 Texas Tech                  71  74    -3.10             0.385  0.147
NEUT   #  3 Houston                     62  68    -6.89             0.258  0.038

Here is UCF's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 17 Texas A&M                   64  61    -5.82    +8.82
HOME   #165 Purdue Fort Wayne           75  68   +11.98    -4.98
HOME   #108 Florida Atlantic           100  94    +8.17    -2.17
HOME   #305 Tennessee Tech              80  69   +20.49    -9.49
NEUT   # 12 Wisconsin                   70  86   -10.10    -5.90
NEUT   # 80 LSU                        102 109    +1.29    -8.29
HOME   #147 Milwaukee                   84  76   +10.48    -2.48
HOME   #163 Cal Baptist                 74  59   +11.47    +3.53
HOME   #289 Tarleton St.                66  51   +18.74    -3.74
NEUT   #270 Tulsa                       88  75   +14.21    -1.21
HOME   #179 Jacksonville                86  66   +12.71    +7.29
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                  87  83   -15.52   +19.52
HOME   # 21 Kansas                      48  99    -5.61   -45.39
HOME   # 90 Colorado                    75  74    +5.64    -4.64
AWAY   # 16 Arizona                     80  88   -13.54    +5.54
AWAY   # 74 Arizona St.                 95  89    -3.36    +9.36
HOME   #  3 Houston                     68  69   -11.97   +10.97
AWAY   # 10 Iowa St.                    83 108   -14.62   -10.38
HOME   # 87 TCU                         85  58    +5.40   +21.60
AWAY   # 21 Kansas                      87  91   -12.61    +8.61
HOME   # 24 BYU                         75  81    -4.55    -1.45
HOME   # 53 Cincinnati                  83  93    +0.72   -10.72
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                      76  91    -9.68    -5.32
HOME   # 10 Iowa St.                    65  77    -7.62    -4.38
AWAY   # 90 Colorado                    63  76    -1.36   -11.64
AWAY   # 97 Oklahoma St.                95 104    +0.27    -9.27
HOME   # 77 Utah                        76  72    +4.08    -0.08
HOME   # 64 Kansas St.                  80  76    +2.58    +1.42
AWAY   # 87 TCU                         78  89    -1.60    -9.40
HOME   # 97 Oklahoma St.                83  70    +7.27    +5.73
AWAY   # 51 West Virginia               65  72    -6.43    -0.57
NEUT   # 77 Utah                        87  72    +0.58   +14.42
NEUT   # 21 Kansas                      74  83    -9.11             0.195