Question for the Board

Hi all. So a friend of mine was asking what seed I think KU will get in the NCAA tournament. Obviously how the Big 12 tournament plays out for them is a big factor in determining that. IMHO, I said that if they won the Big 12 tournament, they’d likely earn a 4 seed with an outside shot at a 3. OTOH, if they get blown out by Utah or UCF, they would likely be a 7 seed.

Bottom line, he asked, based on how I think it plays out, what seed I think KU will inevitably get. I homed in on a 5 or 6, but in the end, I went with 5. (That’s being optimistic that they win at least two games in the Big 12 tourney.

Anyway, was curious as to what everyone else thinks. What seed do you think KU will be in the NCAA tournament?

I would say a 6 seed.

Current Projections: Anywhere from 6 seed to 8 seed
Currently, Kansas sits as a 7 seed according to Bracket Matrix, which averages projections across the major Bracket projections.
Some of the more recent projections have moved Kansas up to a 6 seed, and it’s not impossible that KU lands on the 5 line with three wins in Kansas City. At the same time, a bad Big 12 Tourney could quickly knock KU down to an 8 seed.
Let's look at what the major bracketologists are forecasting:
ESPN (Joe Lunardi):
KU as a 6 seed facing the winner of Indiana-Oklahoma
Potential second-round matchup: #3 St. John's
Region's #2 seed: Alabama
CBS Sports (Jerry Palm):
KU as a 7 seed facing Indiana
Potential second-round matchup: #2 Tennessee
Field of 68 (Jeff Goodman):
KU as a 6 seed facing Drake
Potential second-round matchup: #3 Texas A&M
Region's #2 seed: St. John's
And here’s what some of the lesser-known but historically top-ranking bracket projections forecast for KU:
YAGO Brackets:
KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Vandy, Arkansas, Baylor)
Region's #2 seed: St. John's
Glazewski-tology:
KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Vandy, Arkansas, Baylor)
Region's #2 seed: Alabama
1-3-1 Sports:
KU as a 7 seed vs. one of the 10s (Utah St, Arkansas, WVU, Baylor)
Region's #2 seed: Alabama
What History Says about KU’s Chances per Seed
Here's how teams with KU's projected seeds have performed historically, according to Data Science and Sports Analytics Professor Sheldon H. Jacobson (University of Illinois):
5 Seed Historical Performance:
Round of 32: 64.7%
Sweet Sixteen: 34.6%
Elite Eight: 7.7%
Final Four: 5.8%
Championship Game: 5.1%
National Champion: 0%
6 Seed Historical Performance:
Round of 32: 60.9%
Sweet Sixteen: 28.8%
Elite Eight: 10.9%
Final Four: 1.9%
Championship Game: 2.6%
National Champion: 2.6%
7 Seed Historical Performance:
Round of 32: 61.5%
Sweet Sixteen: 18.6%
Elite Eight: 6.4%
Final Four: 1.9%
Championship Game: 1.3%
National Champion: 2.6%
8 Seed Historical Performance:
Round of 32: 48.1%
Sweet Sixteen: 10.3%
The difference between seeds is significant when it comes to reaching the Sweet Sixteen (34.6 % vs. 28.8% vs. 18.6% vs. 10.3%).
What it Means for KU
It’s going to be a difficult path for the Jayhawks regardless of where they land. They’ll probably face a strong 2 or 3 seed in the second round.
The good news: KU has the tournament experience and coaching to outperform these odds. The concerning news: KU’s struggled to knock off the kind of high-level competition they’re likely to face early in the Tourney.
Given the potential opponents (Drake, Indiana, Oklahoma, Alabama, St. Johns, Tennessee), KU’s chances will be all about the matchups. And we’ll get into that before and after Selection Sunday.

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For now, a deep run in the Big 12 Tourney will provide a significantly better chance to make it to the second weekend.
And a little bracket luck will go a long, long way.
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