predictions for TCU game

I hate early tips.  It's at 7:00 a.m., Hawaii time.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 12.3 point margin, with an 88.7 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 144.7 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 78, TCU 66.  Kansas has been
playing 0.6 points above expectation, while TCU has been playing 0.4 points
below expectation, which means that the margin for Kansas could be 13.2 points.
The Jayhawks still have a strongly negative trend, while TCU has a slightly
negative trend, though it's not statistically significant.  Both teams have
negative mental toughness ratings, and neither is statistically significant.
But if you take it at face value, the margin for Kansas drops to 10.9 points.
TCU has been more consistent than Kansas, which makes it harder for the
Horned Frogs to overcome the margin.  TCU has played 3 games out of 22 by
more than 12.3 points above expectation, which would be enough to win today's
game.  That corresponds to a 13.6 percent chance of winning.  Meanwhile,
Kansas has played 3 out of 21 Division I games by more than 12.3 points
below expectation, which would be enough to lose today's game.  That
corresponds to a 14.3 percent chance of losing.  Those average to a 14
percent chance of losing, a bit higher than derived from the Sagarin
Predictor ratings shown above.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 82 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, TCU 68.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 17.5 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 0.9 units, which combine to an 18.4 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 71.1 possessions per game, the
margin for Kansas works out to 13.1 points on a neutral court.  Subtract
Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, and the margin becomes 9.8 points.
The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 77, TCU 67.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Greenfield gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 78 to 65.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in six of eight categories; TCU has a higher offensive rebound percentage and
attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in six of seven categories; TCU grabs more offensive
rebounds per game.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Dunkel gives Kansas a 14.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 12.0 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total points
projection of 149, the implied final score is Kansas 81.5, TCU 67.5 (you pick
the roundings).  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 144, which would imply
a final score of Kansas 78, TCU 66.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Real Time gives Kansas a 5.0 point margin with a final score of 80 to 75.  The
probability of winning the game is given as 60.4 percent.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Dolphin gives Kansas a 10.9 point margin, with an 82.6 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 78, TCU 67.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Whitlock's ratings differential is 19.7 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 14.3 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by 11.0 points.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 11.1 points in favor of
Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage,
and Kansas has a 7.8 point margin.  The BPI has Duke ranked eight spots ahead of
Kansas, and also claims that TCU has played a tougher schedule than Kansas!

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

In the "hard to understand" category, LRMC has Kansas ranked down at #16, five
spots lower than Duke, who fell out of the national polls after another loss.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, corresponding to a 73 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 75 to 69.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Crotistics gives Kansas a 9.5 point margin.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

DPPI gives Kansas a 12.4 point margin.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

There are seven common opponents, all in conference, once of which TCU has
played twice (Texas), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us nine
scores to compare:

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
TCU -21 OSU on road (-17 neutral)
KU   -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
TCU  -8 WV  at home (-12 neutral)
KU   +1 TCU on road ( +5 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
TCU  +1 UT  at home ( -3 neutral)     TCU -17 UT  on road (-13 neutral)
KU   +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral)     KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
TCU -28 BU  on road (-24 neutral)
KU  +44 TCU on road (+48 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
TCU  -7 TT  at home (-11 neutral)
KU  +21 TCU on road (+25 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
TCU -13 ISU at home (-17 neutral)
KU   +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral)

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
TCU -23 OU  on road (-19 neutral)
KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)
KU   -1 TCU on road ( +3 neutral)

Seven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two marginally favor TCU.  The
average is 11.0 points in favor of Kansas.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

The Topeka YMCA makes Kansas a 7 point underdog.

Players to watch:  Guard Brandon Parrish plays the most minutes, but that's it.
Guard Malique Trent is their leading scorer and their leading thief, but also
commits the most turnovers and the most personal fouls.  Forward Karviar
Shepherd is their leading rebounder.  Forward Vladimir Brodziansky blocks the
most shots.

The average of the various prognostications is 10.6 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 78, TCU 67.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   #  5   #  9   #  7   # 10   +0.6   10.9   -0.47 +/- 0.39   -0.21 +/- 0.23
TCU            #124   # 52   #121   #122   #128   -0.4    9.3   -0.04 +/- 0.32   -0.06 +/- 0.15
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  9  #  9   # 11   # 12   #  7  #  3    # 21    #  7   #  6   #  4   #  6
TCU            #146  # 75   #138   # 67   #126  # 80    #133    #140   # 69   #161   # 88
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  7   #  7   #  9   #  7   #  4   #  5   #  8   1.006   18-4     #     #   
TCU            #147   #141   #123   #162   #159   #158   #144   0.402   10-12    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  7  #  5    #  7  # 25    # 18  # 50    # 16  #  9    # 15  #  4    #  5  #  3
TCU            #139  # 75    #126  # 53    #131  # 47    #121  # 72    #150  # 64    #122  # 10

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #304 Northern Colorado          109  72   +32.33    +4.67
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    -1.16    -4.84
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 56 UCLA                        92  73    +9.30    +9.70
NEUT   # 19 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +2.57    +4.43
HOME   #270 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +28.93    +4.07
HOME   #157 Harvard                     75  69   +21.30   -15.30
HOME   #301 Holy Cross                  92  59   +31.72    +1.28
HOME   # 75 Oregon State                82  67   +14.15    +0.85
HOME   #171 Montana                     88  46   +22.59   +19.41
AWAY   # 66 San Diego State             70  57    +6.74    +6.26
HOME   # 97 UC Irvine                   78  53   +16.11    +8.89
HOME   # 32 Baylor                     102  74    +8.25   +19.75
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma                   109 106    +2.38    +0.62
AWAY   # 54 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.93    +4.07
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               63  74    -4.25    -6.75
HOME   #121 TCU                         70  63   +18.89   -11.89
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma State              67  86    +6.73   -25.73
HOME   # 34 Texas                       76  67    +8.49    +0.51
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                  72  85    +0.12   -13.12
HOME   # 22 Kentucky                    90  84    +6.71    -0.71
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                77  59   +11.48    +6.52
AWAY   #121 TCU                                  +12.27             0.887
HOME   #  4 West Virginia                         +2.37             0.587
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -4.24             0.326
HOME   # 65 Oklahoma State                       +13.35             0.892
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          +4.86             0.699
AWAY   # 32 Baylor                                +1.63             0.559
HOME   # 54 Texas Tech                           +12.55             0.923
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 +1.87             0.568
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                            +6.74             0.752

Here is TCU's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #316 SE Louisiana                90  77   +17.70    -4.70
HOME   #255 Houston Baptist             90  63   +12.59   +14.41
HOME   # 87 South Dakota State          67  76    -0.23    -8.77
NEUT   # 78 Rhode Island                60  66    -4.44    -1.56
NEUT   #162 Illinois State              71  60    +2.64    +8.36
HOME   # 18 SMU                         70  75    -9.81    +4.81
HOME   #247 Colgate                     76  49   +11.89   +15.11
AWAY   # 58 Washington                  67  92    -9.35   -15.65
HOME   #343 Prairie View A&M            73  55   +22.31    -4.31
HOME   #323 Abilene Christian           80  69   +18.77    -7.77
AWAY   #325 Bradley                     53  49   +12.42    -8.42
HOME   #349 Delaware State              75  47   +24.91    +3.09
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma State              48  69    -8.85   -12.15
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               87  95   -13.21    +5.21
HOME   # 34 Texas                       58  57    -7.09    +8.09
AWAY   # 32 Baylor                      54  82   -13.95   -14.05
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                      63  70   -18.89   +11.89
HOME   # 54 Texas Tech                  69  76    -3.03    -3.97
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                  60  73    -8.84    -4.16
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       54  71   -13.71    -3.29
HOME   # 83 Tennessee                   75  63    -0.76   +12.76
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                    72  95   -19.82    -3.18
HOME   #  9 Kansas                               -12.27             0.113
HOME   # 65 Oklahoma State                        -2.23             0.412
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia                        -19.83             0.024
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                          -4.10             0.314
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                           -15.46             0.044
AWAY   # 54 Texas Tech                            -9.65             0.109
HOME   # 32 Baylor                                -7.33             0.236
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                         -10.72             0.102
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma                             -13.20             0.061