predictions for Samford game

Well, finally the Big 12 is off the schneid.  The kittens lost to Iowa
on Tuesday, and Central Florida lost to South Florida, also on Tuesday.
Cincinnati seemed to have their game against San Francisco in hand with
a 9 point lead and less than 3 minutes to play, but the Dons managed
to force overtime when a missed Bearcat free throw enabled a tying
trey.  But the Bearcats managed their own trey with seconds remaining
in overtime to take a one-point lead that survived a missed half-court
buzzer beater.

BYU, Texas Tech, Texas, and Iowa State all play earlier than Kansas
on Thursday, so maybe the Big 12 can assert its dominance by the time
the Jayhawks take the court in Salt Lake City.

Samford has played only one Top 25 team, and that was in their season
opener at Purdue, where they lost by 53 points.  Samford has played
only one other Top 100 team, and that was in their second game at VCU,
where they lost by 10.  Samford has played only two other teams in the
top tier (top third) of Division I, beating #108 Western Carolina twice,
at home by 26 and on the road by 4, and also beating #113 Belmont at
home by 6.  So those would be considered their best wins.  Of course,
by now they must be playing with greater confidence than when they
opened their season at Purdue.  Will they be intimidated by playing
Kansas?

Some people have raised the issue of Salt Lake City's altitude.  First
of all, it's not that high; we'll have worse to deal with when Colorado
rejoins the Big 12.  Second, both teams will be faced with the same
issue.  The smart thing to do is get there early and start to acclimate.

Where we start to see some concern is with three-point shooting.
Samford is #7 in all of Division I in three-point shooting percentage
at 39.32 percent.  Of course, that wouldn't matter if they shot a low
volume of treys.  Unfortunately, they are also #7 in all of Division I
in volume, attempting 852 threes.  But are they a Timberlake kind of
three-point shooting team, namely shooting a decent percentage against
weaker opposition, but doing considerably worse against stronger
opposition?  They shot only 16 percent from long distance against Purdue.
Plus, Kansas has faced other teams that shoot the three well; Kentucky
is #1 at 41.19 percent, and we beat them; Baylor is #9 at 38.80 percent
and we split with them; UConn is #34 at 36.69 percent, and we beat them.
The problem has been with teams that normally don't shoot the three very
well, but get hot against the Jayhawks, as if Kansas was playing down
to the level of the opposition.

Of course, as you can well imagine, the outcome of this game depends
heavily on the status of Dickinson.  McCullar is out, ostensibly for
the entire tournament, after hints being dropped prior to Selection
Sunday that the Jayhawks would be at full strength by the time of the
NCAA Tournament.  Is it possible that the pain will subside by the
final weekend, enabling him to play if Kansas can survive and advance
to the Final Four?  Sounds like Self may be taking the "all or nothing"
motivational approach.  And while the media statements about Dickinson
being much better off than originally feared, it's hard for me to
imagine him being 100 percent by the time of this game.  Even if the
doctors declare him 100 percent physically, there is always the question
about being 100 percent mentally.  Might he play less physically in an
attempt to protect his shoulder?  How hard would it be to re-injure?
Popped out once, does that make it easier to pop out a second time?
Rumor has it that Hunter has had this particular injury before, in
which case he may be in a good position to know what to expect.

We saw Vegas take the injuries into account in their prediction for
the Cincinnati game, picking the Bearcats to win, when all the other
computer rankings that had no idea about the injuries picked Kansas to
win.  The Vegas line has moved from 7.5 points in favor of Kansas when
I compiled all the various predictions prior to Self's announcement, to
just 7.0 points as of a moment ago, after Self's announcement.  That's
a bit of a surprise; is McCullar only worth a half point???

The pessimist is Dunkel, who is predicting Kansas to lose by 1, followed
by Colley, who is expecting a one-possession affair, but is favoring the
Jayhawks.  The optimist is the BPI, who has Kansas by 11.5 points, and
that hasn't changed since yesterday.  The weirdest prediction comes
from RealTime, who has Samford ranked #23 and Kansas ranked #31.  One
might expect that Samford would therefore be favored on a neutral court,
but instead RealTime has Kansas by 9.  Go figure.  Yet more evidence for
why I think RealTime isn't ready for PrimeTime.

The word is that Samford likes to press.  That could be good news for
Kansas, as the Jayhawks excel in transition, so with some crisp passing,
a strength of the team, beating the press ought to lead to a bunch of
easy two pointers.  Kansas also has a size advantage; Dickinson ought
to be able to score in the paint with regularity.  So the Jayhawks
just need to defend the arc.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Sam     KU      Defensive Stats      Sam     KU
Points/Game         84.3    75.0     Opp Points/Game     74.4    69.1
Avg Score Margin   +10.0    +5.9     Opp Effective FG %  50.0    47.6
Assists/Game        17.0    18.5     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.3     7.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.4    35.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.4    25.4
Effective FG %      56.9    53.4     Blocks/Game          3.8     3.9
Off Rebound %       27.4    24.1     Steals/Game          9.5     7.2
FTA/FGA            0.364   0.328     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.0    14.7
Turnover %          16.0    14.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU             Sam
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.96           +0.54    
inconsistency         12.80           12.06    
trend                 -0.35 ± 0.25    +0.08 ± 0.23
mental toughness      -0.21 ± 0.24    -0.56 ± 0.23         
average total pts      144.19         158.72

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Rylan Jones (guard)
most points        Achor Achor (forward)
most rebounds      Achor Achor (forward)
most assists       Rylan Jones (guard)
most steals        A.J. Staton-McCray (guard)
most blocks        Achor Achor (forward)
most turnovers     Achor Achor (forward)
most fouls         Jermaine Marshall (forward)

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          22-10          29-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Samford
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +11.00   81   70       83       # 13   #  6    # 85   #228
Pomeroy                 +6.88   82   75       74.2     # 22   #  5    # 81   #247
Greenfield              +7.50   80   72.5              # 18   # 10    # 96   #176
Dunkel                  -1.00   72   73                # 78           # 33
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.00   80   73                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +10.29   84   74       80.6     # 24   #  7    # 96   #180
Real Time               +9.00   72   63       64.0     # 31   #  9    # 23   #239
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   79   72       59       # 16   #  8    # 44   #233
DPPI                    +3.90   78   74       60.2     # 16   #  5    # 92   #226 
ESPN BPI               +11.50                 83.7     # 20   #  5    # 96   #299
Whitlock                +4.11                          # 22   # 12    # 66   #230
Colley Matrix           +2.69                          # 22   #  7    # 44   #213
Donchess               +10.10   83   73       82.7     # 17   #  5    #100   #228
Haslametrics            +9.66   83   73                # 24           #104
INCCStats               +7.00   83   76       76       # 20           # 90
common opponents             
NCAA NET                                               # 19           # 74
LRMC                                                   # 25   # 11    #108   #236
Massey composite                                       # 18           # 75
Pomeroy offense                                        # 65           # 69
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           #116
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 92           # 14
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.11   79.8 72.4     73.7
scatter                  3.47    4.1  3.3     10.1

Here is Kansas' season:
                                                                             CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----    -----
HOME   #254 North Carolina Central      99  56   +20.90   +22.10
HOME   #337 Manhattan                   99  61   +28.51    +9.49
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    89  84    -0.59    +5.59
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 12 Marquette                   59  73    -2.44   -11.56
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   69  60    -4.75   +13.75
HOME   #320 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +25.57   -17.57
HOME   #  1 Connecticut                 69  65    -4.98    +8.98
HOME   #212 UMKC                        88  69   +18.96    +0.04
HOME   #150 Missouri                    73  64   +15.34    -6.34
AWAY   # 93 Indiana                     75  71    +3.76    +0.24
HOME   # 84 Yale                        75  60    +9.89    +5.11
NEUT   #155 Wichita St.                 86  67   +12.35    +6.65
HOME   # 33 TCU                         83  81    +4.84    -2.84
AWAY   # 61 UCF                         60  65    +0.85    -5.85
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.60    +6.40
AWAY   #115 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +5.91   +18.09
AWAY   #144 West Virginia               85  91    +8.18   -14.18
HOME   # 37 Cincinnati                  74  69    +5.13    -0.13
AWAY   #  5 Iowa St.                    75  79    -8.67    +4.67
HOME   #115 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +12.91   +16.09
HOME   #  2 Houston                     78  65    -4.56   +17.56
AWAY   # 68 Kansas St.                  70  75    +1.40    -6.40
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      64  61    +1.44    +1.56
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                  50  79    -3.03   -25.97
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma                    67  57    -1.40   +11.40
HOME   # 27 Texas                       86  67    +4.04   +14.96
HOME   # 16 BYU                         68  76    +2.24   -10.24
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      74  82    -5.56    -2.44
HOME   # 68 Kansas St.                  90  68    +8.40   +13.60
AWAY   #  2 Houston                     46  76   -11.56   -18.44
NEUT   # 37 Cincinnati                  52  75    +1.63   -24.63
NEUT   # 81 Samford                     82  75    +6.88             0.742    0.742
NEUT   # 15 Gonzaga                     75  77    -1.68             0.437    0.324
NEUT   #  3 Purdue                      71  78    -6.74             0.262    0.085
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   69  74    -4.75             0.327    0.028
NEUT   #  2 Houston                     61  69    -8.06             0.223    0.006
NEUT   #  1 Connecticut                 67  75    -8.48             0.212    0.001

Here is Samford's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #  3 Purdue                      45  98   -17.34   -35.66
AWAY   # 80 VCU                         65  75    -3.71    -6.29
Div2        Mississippi College         96  52
HOME   #301 South Carolina St.          89  72   +18.64    -1.64
HOME   #314 Alabama St.                 99  67   +19.64   +12.36
HOME   #215 Merrimack                   79  71   +13.38    -5.38
HOME   #346 North Carolina A&T         101  83   +24.49    -6.49
HOME   #152 Louisiana                   88  65    +9.56   +13.44
Div3        LaGrange                   128  82
HOME   #327 Alabama A&M                118  91   +22.30    +4.70
HOME   #113 Belmont                     99  93    +6.82    -0.82
AWAY   #298 Valparaiso                  79  61   +11.37    +6.63
AWAY   #277 Texas Southern              87  65    +9.55   +12.45
HOME   #140 Chattanooga                 89  74    +8.70    +6.30
AWAY   #258 The Citadel                 80  64    +8.21    +7.79
HOME   #148 UNC Greensboro              79  70    +9.09    -0.09
HOME   #354 VMI                        134  96   +28.59    +9.41
AWAY   #108 Western Carolina            75  71    -0.58    +4.58
HOME   #214 Mercer                      87  80   +13.20    -6.20
AWAY   #141 Furman                      68  78    +1.97   -11.97
AWAY   #175 East Tennessee St.          75  72    +4.20    -1.20
HOME   #193 Wofford                     81  79   +12.16   -10.16
AWAY   #140 Chattanooga                 78  56    +1.70   +20.30
AWAY   #148 UNC Greensboro              78  69    +2.09    +6.91
AWAY   #354 VMI                        102  63   +21.59   +17.41
HOME   #108 Western Carolina            88  62    +6.42   +19.58
AWAY   #214 Mercer                      84  88    +6.20   -10.20
HOME   #141 Furman                      74  72    +8.97    -6.97
HOME   #175 East Tennessee St.          87  71   +11.20    +4.80
AWAY   #193 Wofford                     69  91    +5.16   -27.16
HOME   #258 The Citadel                 92  80   +15.21    -3.21
NEUT   #214 Mercer                      70  57    +9.70    +3.30
NEUT   #141 Furman                      84  77    +5.47    +1.53
NEUT   #175 East Tennessee St.          76  69    +7.70    -0.70
NEUT   # 22 Kansas                      75  82    -6.88             0.258