predictions for Cincinnati game

It's the post-season.  Everybody's nicked up.  Kansas is out a couple of starters.
Cincinnati might be minus a couple of contributors, but they're not the top players.
Advantage Bearcats.  At least Kansas isn't on the road.  Indeed, it may be as close
to a home court as we can get without actually playing in Allen Field House.
Advantage Kansas.  Still, the homecourt advantage is only about 3 points, whereas
McCullar and Dickinson account for 36.32 points per game.  The highest-scoring
non-starters, Jackson and Timberlake, account for just 8.78 points per game, though
a lot of that is because of their limited minutes.  If you scale that up to a full
40 minutes, which is unlikely, Timberlake would score 13.23 and Jackson would score
9.11 points.  That's still a loss of 14 points per game.  And THEIR subs will
likely reduce the output even further.  The more likely backup for Dickinson is
Braun, who scores at a 11.57 points per 40 minutes pace.  I'll expect to see KJ
at the five when Braun needs a rest.  Surely they wouldn't pull the redshirt off
of Clemence just for the Big 12 Tournament.  And I wouldn't be surpriesd to see
some Jankovich either, especially if the team needs some long-range shooting.

Now, let's assume that Lakhin and Fredrick are out.  That costs Cincinnati just
15.85 points, and their likely subs can replace the bulk of that.

Vegas knows about the injury situation.  So does Greenfield, who usually agrees
with Vegas on every prediction.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if their two
predictions are ALWAYS in agreement, but they keep changing dynamically, so any
differences are due to when I happen to check Greenfield's posting and Dunkel's
posting (I'm always getting the Vegas prediction from Dunkel's web site).
Anyway, Vegas and Greenfield are the only ones predicting Kansas to lose, and by
2.5 points.  Everybody else is picking Kansas to win.  The average favors Kansas
by 3.5 points, with a scatter of 3.2 points.

If you look at the "My Stats" section below, you see how similar the two teams
are.  Cincinnati is a fraction of a point more underrated, but more consistent
than Kansas, and the trend and mental toughness ratings are comparable, as is
the total points.  Kansas has a better record and has played a more difficult
schedule.  But then look at the common opponents section, and you see that
more comparisons favor Cincinnati than Kansas (by the slimmest of margins),
but the average favors Kansas by a point.

I suspect most Jayhawk fans are resigned to not winning the Big 12 Tournament,
and with the team needing time to rest and heal, would be perfectly content to
have the Jayhawks lose today and prepare for the bigger prize in the Big Dance.
I take a somewhat different attitude.  Realizing that depth isn't as critical
during the Big Dance because of the longer timeouts and the games being
scheduled just two to a week, with no travel between the most closely spaced
games, I still worry about the foul situation.  I would not be surprised at
all to see Big 12 teams hampered by whistle-happy officials who won't tolerate
the degree of physicality that Big 12 referees have allowed.  Indeed, I've
heard that Houston gets away with such physical play because the refs couldn't
possibly blow the whistle on every possession.  But the NCAA refs may not let
them get away with it.  My guess is that the Big 12 teams with the most depth
will more likely play to seed, because they can afford the extra fouls that
are likely to get called.  Because of that, Kansas needs to get as much bench
experience as possible before next week, and that means letting the bench get
as many minutes as possible this week in a tournament setting.  No, I do not
want to go home after today.  Let's at least get to the semifinals.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UC      KU      Defensive Stats      UC      KU
Points/Game         75.3    75.8     Opp Points/Game     68.4    69.0
Avg Score Margin    +6.9    +6.8     Opp Effective FG %  48.1    47.7
Assists/Game        14.9    18.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     12.0     7.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.6    35.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.7    25.3
Effective FG %      50.4    54.0     Blocks/Game          4.4     3.8
Off Rebound %       36.7    24.3     Steals/Game          6.6     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.287   0.334     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.4    14.8
Turnover %          14.6    14.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UC
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.92           +1.33    
inconsistency         12.16           10.27    
trend                 -0.21 ± 0.26    -0.16 ± 0.20
mental toughness      -0.17 ± 0.23    -0.10 ± 0.18         
average total pts      144.77         143.66

Common Opponents
================
There are twelve common opponents, all in conference, two of which Cincinnati has
played twice (TCU, UCF ), one of which Cincinnati has played thrice (West Virginia),
three of which Kansas has played twice (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State), two of
which both teams have played twice (Oklahoma, Houston), plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us twenty two scores to compare:

KU   -8 BYU at home (-11 neutral court)
UC  +11 BYU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU  -25 UC  neutral (-25 neutral court)

KU  +19 UT  at home (+16 neutral court)
UC   -1 UT  at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU  +20 UC  neutral (+20 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -5 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
UC   -3 BU  on road (  0 neutral court)     UC   -3 BU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU   -5 UC  neutral ( -5 neutral court)     KU    0 UC  neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
UC   +4 TCU at home ( +1 neutral court)     UC  -18 TCU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU   -2 UC  neutral ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +14 UC  neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +10 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)
UC   -4 OU  at home ( -7 neutral court)     UC   -3 OU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +16 UC  neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU  +13 UC  neutral (+13 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UC  +11 UCF at home ( +8 neutral court)     UC   +2 UCF on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU  -10 UC  neutral (-10 neutral court)     KU   -7 UC  neutral ( -7 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
UC   -4 WVU on road ( -1 neutral court)     UC  +36 WVU at home (+33 neutral court)
KU   -2 UC  neutral ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -36 UC  neutral (-36 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
UC   +5 WVU neutral ( +5 neutral court)
KU   -8 UC  neutral ( -8 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-26 neutral court)
UC   +3 TTU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU  -32 UC  neutral (-32 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)     KU  -30 UH  on road (-27 neutral court)
UC   -5 UH  at home ( -8 neutral court)     UC   -8 UH  on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +18 UC  neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  -22 UC  neutral (-22 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
UC   -9 ISU at home (-12 neutral court)
KU  +11 UC  neutral (+11 neutral court)

KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)     KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
UC   -4 OSU at home ( -7 neutral court)     UC   -4 OSU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +33 UC  neutral (+33 neutral court)     KU  +34 UC  neutral (+34 neutral court)

KU  +22 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)     KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
UC   +2 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     UC   +2 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +20 UC  neutral (+20 neutral court)     KU   -1 UC  neutral ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +2 UC  neutral ( +2 neutral court)

Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, eleven favor Cincinnati (surprise!), and one is
a wash.  The average is 1.41 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 19.21 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Simas Lukosius (guard)
most points        Daniel Skillings (guard)
most rebounds      Aziz Bandaogo (forward)
most assists       Day Day Thomas (guard)
most steals        Day Day Thomas (guard)
most blocks        Aziz Bandaogo (forward)
most turnovers     Simas Lukosius (guard)
most fouls         Aziz Bandaogo (forward)

Forward Viktor Lakhin has an ankle injury, and his status for the game is uncertain.
He is sixth on the team in minutes per game played and fourth in points per game
scored.  Guard CJ Fredrick has been dealing with a hamstring injury, and a timetable
for his return to action has not been established.  He is seventh on the team in
minutes per game played and ninth in points per game scored.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          22-9           19-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Cincinnati
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +7.00   74   67       73       #  9   #  5    # 55   # 51
Pomeroy                 +3.07   73   70       61.4     # 18   #  2    # 43   # 69
Greenfield              -2.50   67   70                # 17   #  5    # 32   # 34
Dunkel                  +1.00   67   66                # 22           # 53
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   68   70                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +3.21   72   69       61.2     # 19   #  4    # 29   # 27
Real Time               +3.00   70   67       56.1     # 19   #  6    # 78   # 47
Seven Overtimes         +8.00   76   68       73       # 10   # 10    # 47   # 68
DPPI                    +2.90   73.5 70.5     58.1     # 14   #  3    # 39   # 33 
ESPN BPI                +7.40                 75.9     # 18   #  3    # 32   # 43
Whitlock                +2.92                          # 18   # 12    # 47   # 43
Colley Matrix           +6.38                          # 18   #  6    # 77   # 49
Donchess                +5.60   75   70       67.2     # 15   #  5    # 43   # 55
Haslametrics            +6.18   74   68                # 19           # 37
INCCStats               +3.00   73   70       62       # 18           # 40
common opponents        +1.41
NCAA NET                                               # 18           # 43
LRMC                                                   # 19   # 10    # 33   # 54
Massey composite                                       # 15           # 48
Pomeroy offense                                        # 48           # 70
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 23
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 94           #196
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.50   71.9 68.8     65.3
scatter                  3.18    3.1  1.5      7.2

Here is Kansas' season:
                                                                             CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----    -----
HOME   #242 North Carolina Central      99  56   +21.16   +21.84
HOME   #337 Manhattan                   99  61   +29.58    +8.42
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                    89  84    -0.15    +5.15
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 13 Marquette                   59  73    -1.69   -12.31
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -4.79   +13.79
HOME   #320 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.65   -18.65
HOME   #  2 Connecticut                 69  65    -3.44    +7.44
HOME   #208 UMKC                        88  69   +19.99    -0.99
HOME   #146 Missouri                    73  64   +16.22    -7.22
AWAY   # 87 Indiana                     75  71    +4.35    -0.35
HOME   # 91 Yale                        75  60   +11.07    +3.93
NEUT   #159 Wichita St.                 86  67   +13.64    +5.36
HOME   # 33 TCU                         83  81    +5.83    -3.83
AWAY   # 57 UCF                         60  65    +1.57    -6.57
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma                    78  66    +6.36    +5.64
AWAY   #110 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +6.73   +17.27
AWAY   #141 West Virginia               85  91    +9.24   -15.24
HOME   # 43 Cincinnati                  74  69    +6.57    -1.57
AWAY   # 12 Iowa St.                    75  79    -5.28    +1.28
HOME   #110 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +13.73   +15.27
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -4.43   +17.43
AWAY   # 68 Kansas St.                  70  75    +2.37    -7.37
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      64  61    +2.17    +0.83
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                  50  79    -2.08   -26.92
AWAY   # 40 Oklahoma                    67  57    -0.64   +10.64
HOME   # 23 Texas                       86  67    +4.59   +14.41
HOME   # 16 BYU                         68  76    +2.94   -10.94
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      74  82    -4.83    -3.17
HOME   # 68 Kansas St.                  90  68    +9.37   +12.63
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     46  76   -11.43   -18.57
NEUT   # 42 Cincinnati                  73  70    +2.88             0.614    0.614
NEUT   # 14 Baylor                      74  75    -1.34             0.450    0.276
NEUT   # 12 Iowa St.                    68  70    -1.86             0.433    0.120
NEUT   #  1 Houston                     63  71    -7.96             0.227    0.027

Here is Cincinnati's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #192 Illinois Chicago            69  58   +16.21    -5.21
HOME   #351 Detroit Mercy               93  61   +27.86    +4.14
HOME   #148 Eastern Washington          85  73   +13.55    -1.55
HOME   #185 Northern Kentucky           90  66   +15.99    +8.01
HOME   #128 Georgia Tech                89  54   +11.65   +23.35
AWAY   #283 Howard                      86  81   +13.48    -8.48
HOME   #240 Florida Gulf Coast          99  62   +17.09   +19.91
AWAY   # 54 Xavier                      79  84    -1.96    -3.04
HOME   #172 Bryant                      85  53   +15.92   +16.08
NEUT   # 28 Dayton                      68  82    -1.27   -12.73
HOME   #216 Merrimack                   65  49   +16.93    -0.93
HOME   #213 Stetson                     83  75   +16.69    -8.69
HOME   #206 Evansville                  76  58   +16.94    +1.06
AWAY   # 16 BYU                         71  60    -7.13   +18.13
HOME   # 23 Texas                       73  74    +1.57    -2.57
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      59  62    -7.73    +4.73
HOME   # 33 TCU                         81  77    +2.67    +1.33
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma                    65  69    +3.30    -7.30
AWAY   # 18 Kansas                      69  74    -6.57    +1.57
HOME   # 57 UCF                         68  57    +5.40    +5.60
AWAY   #141 West Virginia               65  69    +5.87    -9.87
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                  75  72    -5.08    +8.08
HOME   #  1 Houston                     62  67    -7.05    +2.05
HOME   # 12 Iowa St.                    59  68    -1.25    -7.75
AWAY   # 57 UCF                         76  74    -1.60    +3.60
HOME   #110 Oklahoma St.                76  80   +10.48   -14.48
AWAY   # 33 TCU                         57  75    -4.33   -13.67
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     59  67   -14.05    +6.05
HOME   # 68 Kansas St.                  74  72    +6.23    -4.23
AWAY   # 40 Oklahoma                    71  74    -3.70    +0.70
HOME   #141 West Virginia               92  56   +12.87   +23.13
NEUT   #141 West Virginia               90  85    +9.37    -4.37
NEUT   # 18 Kansas                      70  73    -3.07             0.386