predictions for Kansas State game

Senior Night.  'nuf said.

Well, almost.  Kansas is favored by about 9.5 points.  In only three conference
games has Kansas State played above expectation by enough to overcome a margin
of that size, and only one of those games is among the last 14 games.  Their
first two conference games against UCF and West Virginia were eye openers, but
the kittens have been pretty ordinary since then, except against BYU, the team
that just ended Kansas' home court winning streak.  Some might say that Kansas
State is overdue for another double-digit above-expectation performance, but
they've already played six "better than you are" games, as well as six "worse
than you are games".  The rest are usually who you are, and the odds favor this
game being one of those.

The kittens have the better trend and mental toughness ratings, which taken as
face value would reduce the margin to about 7 points.

But it's Senior Night.  And McCullar appears to be back, heopfully this time
for good.  Jankovich will get the start.  Would love to see him hit multiple
threes and get to play extended minutes.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      KSU     KU      Defensive Stats      KSU     KU
Points/Game         72.6    76.3     Opp Points/Game     69.9    68.8
Avg Score Margin    +2.6    +7.5     Opp Effective FG %  46.2    47.4
Assists/Game        14.1    19.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.6     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.8    35.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.2    25.4
Effective FG %      50.2    54.7     Blocks/Game          4.2     3.8
Off Rebound %       31.6    24.8     Steals/Game          6.1     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.380   0.324     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    14.8
Turnover %          18.4    14.6   

My Stats Comparison        KU             KSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.01           +0.28    
inconsistency         11.87           11.12    
trend                 -0.17 ± 0.28    +0.15 ± 0.25
mental toughness      -0.02 ± 0.24    +0.14 ± 0.22         
average total pts      145.11         142.48

Common Opponents
================
There are thirteen common opponents, all twelve other conference members plus
Wichita State, two of which Kansas State has played twice (West Virginia, BYU),
two of which Kansas has played twice (Baylor, Oklahoma), and one of which both
teams have played twice (Oklahoma State), for which I will use only the home-home
and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in Manhattan, giving us nineteen
scores to compare:

KU  +19 WSU neutral (+19 neutral court)
KSU  +9 WSU neutral ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +13 KSU at home (+10 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
KSU +25 UCF at home (+22 neutral court)
KU  -21 KSU at home (-24 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KSU +14 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)     KSU  +4 WVU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -17 KSU at home (-20 neutral court)     KU   -1 KSU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-26 neutral court)
KSU  -1 TTU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU  -25 KSU at home (-28 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   -8 BU  on road ( -5 neutral court)
KSU  +4 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     KSU  +4 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +2 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -3 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)

KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)     KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
KSU  +4 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)     KSU  -3 OSU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +28 KSU at home (+25 neutral court)     KU  +30 KSU at home (+27 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KSU -11 ISU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +10 KSU at home ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)
KSU -22 UH  on road (-19 neutral court)
KU  +32 KSU at home (+29 neutral court)

KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +10 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)
KSU -20 OU  at home (-23 neutral court)     KSU -20 OU  at home (-23 neutral court)
KU  +35 KSU at home (+32 neutral court)     KU  +39 KSU at home (+36 neutral court)

KU   -8 BYU at home (-11 neutral court)     KU   -8 BYU at home (-11 neutral court)
KSU  -6 BYU on road ( -3 neutral court)     KSU +10 BYU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU   -5 KSU at home ( -8 neutral court)     KU  -15 KSU at home (-18 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KSU  -3 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +8 KSU at home ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +19 UT  at home (+16 neutral court)
KSU  -6 UT  on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU  +22 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
KSU  -2 UC  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +4 KSU at home ( +1 neutral court)

KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)

The Houston, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State comparisons are particularly favorable for
Kansas, whereas the West Virginia, UCF, and Texas Tech comparisons are particularly
favorable for Kansas State.  Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, while seven
favor Kansas State.  The average is 9.84 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter
of 18.36 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tylor Perry (guard)
most points        Tylor Perry (guard)
most rebounds      Arthur Kaluma (forward) 
most assists       Tylor Perry (guard)
most steals        Cam Carter (guard)
most blocks        William McNair (forward)
most turnovers     Cam Carter (guard)
most fouls         Cam Carter (guard)

Reserve guard Ques Glover is out for the seaosn following knee surgery.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          21-8           17-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +8.00   75   67       78       #  9   #  5    # 49   # 20
Pomeroy                 +9.57   75   65       81.7     # 17   #  3    # 68   # 32
Greenfield             +11.00   77   66                # 17   #  6    # 54   # 35
Dunkel                  +2.00   75   73                # 17           # 72
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.50   78   66                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +9.37   74   65       79.9     # 17   #  5    # 55   # 37
Real Time              +17.00   84   67       80.6     # 20   #  5    #119   # 37
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   78   66       78       #  9   #  8    #118   # 11
DPPI                   +10.20   77   67       76.0     # 14   #  3    # 60   # 26 
ESPN BPI               +10.30                 83.2     # 18   #  4    # 55   # 23
Whitlock                +9.63                          # 14   # 26    # 73   # 35
Colley Matrix          +10.32                          # 17   #  7    # 80   # 71
Donchess                +9.60   77   67       81.7     # 15   #  5    # 55   # 39
Haslametrics           +10.94   75   64                # 20           # 77
INCCStats               +9.00   74   65       80       # 17           # 60
common opponents        +9.84
NCAA NET                                               # 18           # 73
LRMC                                                   # 19   # 12    # 61   # 37
Massey composite                                       # 15           # 65
Pomeroy offense                                        # 44           #147
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           # 19
Pomeroy tempo                                          #111           #210
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +10.02   76.6 66.5     79.9
scatter                  2.91    2.8  2.3      2.2

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #249 North Carolina Central      99  56   +21.62   +21.38
HOME   #347 Manhattan                   99  61   +31.45    +6.55
NEUT   # 18 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.22    +4.78
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    -1.48   -12.52
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -5.02   +14.02
HOME   #317 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.45   -18.45
HOME   #  2 Connecticut                 69  65    -2.85    +6.85
HOME   #213 UMKC                        88  69   +20.18    -1.18
HOME   #145 Missouri                    73  64   +16.30    -7.30
AWAY   # 95 Indiana                     75  71    +5.41    -1.41
HOME   # 82 Yale                        75  60   +10.57    +4.43
NEUT   #154 Wichita St.                 86  67   +13.63    +5.37
HOME   # 32 TCU                         83  81    +5.76    -3.76
AWAY   # 65 UCF                         60  65    +2.42    -7.42
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                    78  66    +6.15    +5.85
AWAY   #102 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +6.05   +17.95
AWAY   #133 West Virginia               85  91    +8.91   -14.91
HOME   # 47 Cincinnati                  74  69    +7.26    -2.26
AWAY   # 10 Iowa St.                    75  79    -5.70    +1.70
HOME   #102 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +13.05   +15.95
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -3.68   +16.68
AWAY   # 68 Kansas St.                  70  75    +2.57    -7.57
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      64  61    +2.03    +0.97
AWAY   # 33 Texas Tech                  50  79    -1.14   -27.86
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    67  57    -0.85   +10.85
HOME   # 26 Texas                       86  67    +5.20   +13.80
HOME   # 16 BYU                         68  76    +3.08   -11.08
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      74  82    -4.97    -3.03
HOME   # 68 Kansas St.                  75  65    +9.57             0.817
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     63  73   -10.68             0.156

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 94 USC                         69  82    +2.52   -15.52
HOME   #315 Bellarmine                  83  75   +19.41   -11.41
HOME   #149 South Dakota St.            91  68   +10.42   +12.58
NEUT   # 59 Providence                  73  70    -0.40    +3.40
NEUT   # 92 Miami FL                    83  91    +1.91    -9.91
HOME   #337 Central Arkansas           100  56   +23.80   +20.20
HOME   #282 Oral Roberts                88  78   +17.63    -7.63
HOME   #255 North Alabama               75  74   +15.99   -14.99
HOME   # 24 Villanova                   72  71    -0.72    +1.72
AWAY   # 86 LSU                         75  60    -2.06   +17.06
HOME   # 34 Nebraska                    46  62    -0.09   -15.91
NEUT   #154 Wichita St.                 69  60    +7.24    +1.76
HOME   #301 Chicago St.                 62  55   +18.16   -11.16
HOME   # 65 UCF                         77  52    +3.23   +21.77
AWAY   #133 West Virginia               81  67    +2.56   +11.44
AWAY   # 33 Texas Tech                  59  60    -7.06    +6.06
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      68  64    -3.73    +7.73
HOME   #102 Oklahoma St.                70  66    +6.90    -2.90
AWAY   # 10 Iowa St.                    67  78   -11.63    +0.63
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     52  74   -16.12    -5.88
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                    53  73    +0.18   -20.18
AWAY   #102 Oklahoma St.                72  75    -0.10    -2.90
HOME   # 17 Kansas                      75  70    -2.57    +7.57
AWAY   # 16 BYU                         66  72   -10.02    +4.02
HOME   # 32 TCU                         72  75    -0.44    -2.56
AWAY   # 26 Texas                       56  62    -7.76    +1.76
HOME   # 16 BYU                         84  74    -3.02   +13.02
HOME   #133 West Virginia               94  90    +9.56    -5.56
AWAY   # 47 Cincinnati                  72  74    -5.77    +3.77
AWAY   # 17 Kansas                      65  75    -9.57             0.183
HOME   # 10 Iowa St.                    65  70    -4.63             0.331