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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, round 17
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1 month 4 weeks ago #32371
by asteroid
Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd 10
Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
# 1 Houston 14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223 13.167
# 9 Iowa State 10.283 9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155 11.780
# 13 Baylor 10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535 9.608 10.046 10.482 10.774
# 16 BYU 13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066 10.308
# 33 Texas Tech 8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376 10.130
# 17 Kansas 11.129 11.165 9.953 10.509 11.149 9.975 10.129 9.899 10.141 11.123 10.347
# 32 TCU 8.897 8.838 9.434 10.428 10.101 9.485 9.699 10.539 10.935 9.956 9.970
# 26 Texas 8.957 7.615 8.460 7.481 6.422 7.099 8.313 8.013 7.835 8.802 8.185
# 37 Oklahoma 9.775 10.625 10.049 9.582 9.673 10.451 9.153 8.438 9.338 8.485 9.244
# 69 Kansas State 6.225 7.348 8.108 7.872 8.624 8.740 8.583 8.349 7.542 6.881 7.698
# 47 Cincinnati 8.497 9.970 9.053 8.992 9.415 8.605 8.372 8.680 7.848 8.699 8.651
# 65 UCF 5.855 4.785 5.635 5.777 6.960 6.883 7.267 6.935 6.465 7.319 7.299
#101 Oklahoma State 4.861 4.635 4.385 3.978 3.409 3.237 2.968 3.292 3.086 3.656 3.667
#134 West Virginia 3.680 3.467 2.787 3.626 3.496 4.655 4.376 4.040 4.923 4.778 4.780
Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16 Rd 17
Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf. Pred.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd Next Game Score
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- --------- -----
# 1 Houston 13.469 13.495 13.683 13.903 14.285 14.378 14.653 13 3 @UCF Wed 69-60 RW
# 9 Iowa State 12.143 12.688 13.007 12.832 12.034 13.025 13.358 12 4 BYU Wed 77-72
# 13 Baylor 10.471 10.937 11.153 10.722 10.304 10.900 11.236 10 6 UT Mon 78-71
# 16 BYU 10.396 10.497 9.493 9.913 9.177 9.904 10.211 9 7 @ISU Wed 72-77
# 33 Texas Tech 10.375 10.873 10.868 11.175 10.526 9.814 10.121 9 7 @OSU Tue 76-72 RW
# 17 Kansas 10.683 9.932 10.644 10.628 11.018 10.314 9.970 9 7 KSU Tue 74-65
# 32 TCU 9.722 9.777 10.308 10.029 10.423 9.794 9.493 8 8 @WVU Wed 80-73 RW
# 26 Texas 8.413 8.431 8.215 8.417 8.065 8.778 8.935 8 8 @BU Mon 71-78
# 37 Oklahoma 9.193 8.802 8.104 8.121 8.553 8.266 8.003 7 9 UC Tue 73-68
# 69 Kansas State 7.564 7.630 7.143 6.909 7.633 7.781 7.518 7 9 @KU Tue 65-74
# 47 Cincinnati 8.364 7.830 8.348 7.387 6.988 6.941 7.203 6 10 @OU Tue 68-73
# 65 UCF 7.063 6.950 6.351 5.573 6.218 6.772 6.437 6 10 UH Wed 60-69
#101 Oklahoma State 3.625 3.574 4.559 5.443 5.197 4.647 4.472 4 12 TTU Tue 72-76
#134 West Virginia 4.520 4.312 4.124 4.824 4.821 4.688 4.390 4 12 TCU Wed 73-80
Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 17, by just a half point over
RealTime. Seven Overtimes pulled up the rear on this occasion. Dolphin retained the
season lead, with Dunkel easily in last place.
Three road wins were projected for Round 17, and all three happened. Three more are projected
for Round 18, with Houston in Orlando, Texas Tech in Stillwater, and TCU in Morgantown all
expected to win.
Road wins (38 out of 112) Home losses RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
5 Houston BYU UT UC BU OU 0 Houston +5 UH
4 Baylor OSU UCF WVU TCU 0 Iowa State +4 ISU
4 Iowa State TCU UT UC UCF 1 Kansas BYU +2 BU
4 Texas UC OU TCU TTU 2 Baylor TCU UH +1 BYU
3 BYU UCF WVU KU 2 BYU UC UH +1 KU
3 Cincinnati BYU TTU UCF 2 Kansas State OU TCU +1 TTU
3 Oklahoma UC KSU OSU 2 Texas Tech UC TTU 0 TCU
3 TCU OSU BU KSU 3 TCU ISU UT BU 0 UT
3 Texas Tech UT OU WVU 4 Oklahoma UT TTU KU UH -1 KSU
2 Kansas OSU OU 4 Texas TTU UCF UH ISU -1 OU
2 UCF UT OSU 4 UCF BYU BU UC ISU -2 UCF
1 Kansas State WVU 4 West Virginia KSU BYU BU TTU -2 UC
1 Oklahoma State UC 5 Cincinnati UT OU UH ISU OSU -4 OSU
0 West Virginia 5 Oklahoma State BU KU TCU OU UCF -4 WVU
It has occurred to me that the inconsistency value can be somehwat misleading,
because it depends on how many total points you score. To use an extrene
example, a soccer team that scores 1 or 2 or 3 goals per game isn't going to
have an inconsistency of 10 points! Take two teams with identical inconsistencies,
the one that score fewer total points will have a smaller inconsistency value. That
is exemplified by Houston in the Big 12. So, as an experiment, I have normalized
the inconistency values to a total score average of 150 points per game, and that
is shown in the second column, which is the column I have sorted on this time around.
TCU remains the most consistent team in the Big 12.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- -----------------------------
Iowa State +2.70 TCU 7.28 7.22
Houston +2.58 Oklahoma State 8.15 8.50
BYU +1.96 West Virginia 8.91 9.24
Baylor +1.93 Houston 8.17 9.31
Cincinnati +1.29 Baylor 9.96 9.83
TCU +1.14 Cincinnati 9.71 10.23
UCF +1.12 Oklahoma 10.38 10.89
Kansas +1.03 Texas 10.50 10.92
Oklahoma +0.92 Texas Tech 10.61 10.95
Texas Tech +0.32 Iowa State 10.80 11.69
Texas +0.26 Kansas State 11.10 11.69
Kansas State +0.22 BYU 12.06 11.89
Oklahoma State -0.19 UCF 11.28 12.25
West Virginia -1.04 Kansas 11.91 12.31
Amazing what one really bad game can do to your mental toughness rating.
Kansas was on top; not anymore.
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
West Virginia +0.21 +/- 0.20 Kansas State +0.14 +/- 0.22
Texas +0.17 +/- 0.23 West Virginia +0.05 +/- 0.21
Kansas State +0.14 +/- 0.25 Kansas -0.01 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State +0.08 +/- 0.18 Cincinnati -0.07 +/- 0.18
UCF +0.08 +/- 0.27 Oklahoma -0.08 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech +0.05 +/- 0.24 TCU -0.10 +/- 0.11
TCU -0.08 +/- 0.16 Oklahoma State -0.13 +/- 0.14
Kansas -0.17 +/- 0.28 Texas -0.14 +/- 0.17
Baylor -0.23 +/- 0.23 Texas Tech -0.14 +/- 0.21
Cincinnati -0.33 +/- 0.21 UCF -0.19 +/- 0.21
Iowa State -0.37 +/- 0.23 Iowa State -0.40 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma -0.38 +/- 0.22 BYU -0.53 +/- 0.19
Houston -0.40 +/- 0.17 Houston -0.57 +/- 0.13
BYU -0.68 +/- 0.24 Baylor -0.59 +/- 0.15
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
BYU 82.24 Houston 57.63 BYU 152.17 Houston +16.33
Baylor 80.67 Iowa State 62.41 Baylor 152.00 Iowa State +13.72
TCU 79.80 UCF 67.14 TCU 151.17 BYU +12.31
Iowa State 76.14 Oklahoma 68.09 Texas Tech 145.31 Baylor +9.34
Kansas 75.95 Cincinnati 68.52 Kansas 145.11 TCU +8.43
Texas Tech 75.47 Texas 68.93 West Virginia 144.69 Oklahoma +6.81
Texas 75.24 Kansas 69.16 Texas 144.17 Kansas +6.79
Oklahoma 74.91 Texas Tech 69.84 Oklahoma State 143.76 Texas +6.31
Houston 73.96 BYU 69.93 Oklahoma 143.00 Texas Tech +5.64
Cincinnati 73.86 Kansas State 70.35 Kansas State 142.48 Cincinnati +5.34
Kansas State 72.13 Baylor 71.33 Cincinnati 142.38 UCF +3.82
UCF 70.96 TCU 71.37 Iowa State 138.55 Kansas State +1.78
Oklahoma State 71.21 Oklahoma State 72.55 UCF 138.11 Oklahoma State -1.34
West Virginia 68.78 West Virginia 75.91 Houston 131.59 West Virginia -7.14
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas +12.56 ( 3)
Baylor +12.38 ( 4)
West Virginia +11.08 ( 10)
Kansas State +9.38 ( 30)
Houston +9.31 ( 31)
Texas +8.87 ( 41)
Oklahoma +8.71 ( 44)
Texas Tech +8.47 ( 48)
Oklahoma State +8.37 ( 55)
TCU +8.27 ( 60)
Cincinnati +8.23 ( 62)
BYU +8.08 ( 63)
Iowa State +7.69 ( 67)
UCF +7.66 ( 68)
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk
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