Big 12 projection, round 10

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9 
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223
# 12  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155
# 16  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046 10.482
# 14  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141 11.123
# 11  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066
# 34  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376
# 30  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935  9.956
# 21  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338  8.485
# 32  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848  8.699
# 29  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835  8.802
# 72  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542  6.881
# 67  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465  7.319
#133  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923  4.778
#122  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086  3.656

                      Rd 10
                      Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        13.167   7  3  @UC   Sat  66-61  road win
# 12  Iowa State     11.780   6  3   TCU  Sat  78-71
# 16  Baylor         10.774   6  3  @KU   Sat  74-78
# 14  Kansas         10.347   6  4   BU   Sat  78-74
# 11  BYU            10.308   4  5   KSU  Sat  77-65
# 34  Texas Tech     10.130   5  4   UCF  Sat  73-66
# 30  TCU             9.970   5  4  @ISU  Sat  71-78
# 21  Oklahoma        9.244   5  5   OSU  Sat  77-63
# 32  Cincinnati      8.651   4  5   UH   Sat  61-66
# 29  Texas           8.185   4  6   WVU  Sat  79-66
# 72  Kansas State    7.698   5  5  @BYU  Sat  65-77
# 67  UCF             7.299   4  5  @TTU  Sat  66-73
#133  West Virginia   4.780   3  6  @UT   Sat  66-79
#122  Oklahoma State  3.667   2  8  @OU   Sat  63-77

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 10.  That's two consecutive
rounds in which Seven Overtimes has come out on top.  Dunkel came in last again.  Vegas
retains the season lead, with Dunkel still pulling up the rear.

Two road wins were projected for Round 10, but neither happened, though there was one
"unexpected" road win when Iowas State won in Austin.  I put that in quotation marks
because Texas has been horrible at home, while ironically being giant killers on the
road.  Just one road win is projected for Rond 11, with Houston being expected to win
in Cincinnati, though we need the Bearcats to prevail at home.

Road wins (22 out of  66)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Texas          UC  OU  TCU                 0 Houston                                    +2 ISU
2 Baylor         OSU UCF                     0 Iowa State                                 +2 UH
2 BYU            UCF WVU                     0 Kansas                                     +1 BU
2 Cincinnati     BYU TTU                     1 Baylor         TCU                         +1 KU
2 Houston        BYU UT                      1 Kansas State   OU                          +1 TTU
2 Iowa State     TCU UT                      1 Texas Tech     UC                           0 BYU
2 Oklahoma       UC  KSU                     2 BYU            UC  UH                       0 KSU
2 TCU            OSU BU                      2 Cincinnati     UT  OU                       0 OU
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      2 Oklahoma       UT  TTU                      0 TCU
1 Kansas         OSU                         2 TCU            ISU UT                       0 UC
1 Kansas State   WVU                         2 UCF            BYU BU                      -1 UCF
1 UCF            UT                          2 West Virginia  KSU BYU                     -1 UT
0 Oklahoma State                             3 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU                 -2 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              4 Texas          TTU UCF UH  ISU             -3 OSU

It has occurred to me that the inconsistency value can be somehwat misleading,
because it depends on how mnay total points you score.  To use an extrene
example, a soccer team that scores 1 or 2 or 3 goals per game isn't going to
have an inconsistency of 10 points!  Take two teams with identical inconsistencies,
the one that scores fewer total points will have a smaller inconsistency value.  That
is exemplified by Houston in the Big 12.  So, as an experiment, I have normalized
the inconistency values to a total score average of 150 points per game, and that
is shown in the second column, which is the column I have sorted on this time around.
TCU is the most consistent team in the Big 12, while Houston is pretty average.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    -----------------------------
Iowa State      +4.27    TCU               7.89   7.69
BYU             +4.21    Oklahoma State    7.92   8.41
Houston         +3.43    West Virginia     8.47   8.99
Baylor          +2.75    Texas Tech        9.57   9.86
UCF             +1.64    Houston           8.58  10.03
Cincinnati      +1.62    Cincinnati        9.68  10.10
TCU             +1.52    Texas             9.89  10.28
Oklahoma        +0.92    Baylor           11.07  10.78
Kansas          +0.79    Kansas           10.80  11.03
Texas Tech      +0.69    Oklahoma         10.89  11.34
Kansas State    +0.25    BYU              12.01  11.98
Texas           +0.21    Kansas State     11.80  12.56
Oklahoma State  -0.16    Iowa State       11.91  12.61
West Virginia   -1.31    UCF              12.14  13.31

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.30 +/- 0.28    West Virginia   +0.12 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech      +0.21 +/- 0.33    Kansas          +0.07 +/- 0.24
UCF             +0.19 +/- 0.45    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.27
Texas           +0.12 +/- 0.32    Oklahoma        -0.01 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.07 +/- 0.38    Cincinnati      -0.05 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.01 +/- 0.37    Texas           -0.05 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  -0.14 +/- 0.25    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.13
TCU             -0.16 +/- 0.27    Texas Tech      -0.18 +/- 0.21
Cincinnati      -0.19 +/- 0.33    UCF             -0.25 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma        -0.31 +/- 0.34    Oklahoma State  -0.26 +/- 0.14
Baylor          -0.53 +/- 0.39    Iowa State      -0.55 +/- 0.18
Houston         -0.58 +/- 0.25    Houston         -0.60 +/- 0.15
Iowa State      -0.69 +/- 0.38    BYU             -0.66 +/- 0.18
BYU             -0.99 +/- 0.35    Baylor          -0.69 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             83.03   Houston         54.92   Baylor          154.10   Houston         +18.41
Baylor          82.48   Iowa State      62.83   TCU             154.00   Iowa State      +16.02
TCU             82.39   UCF             65.75   BYU             150.36   BYU             +15.70
Iowa State      78.85   Oklahoma        66.95   Kansas          146.91   Baylor          +10.86
Kansas          78.07   BYU             67.33   Texas Tech      145.64   TCU             +10.77
Oklahoma        77.10   Cincinnati      67.38   Texas           144.30   Oklahoma        +10.15
Cincinnati      76.40   Texas           68.83   Oklahoma        144.04   Kansas           +9.23
Texas Tech      76.30   Kansas          68.84   Cincinnati      143.77   Cincinnati       +9.02
Texas           75.48   Kansas State    69.27   Iowa State      141.68   Texas Tech       +6.95
Houston         73.34   Texas Tech      69.34   West Virginia   141.32   Texas            +6.65
Kansas State    71.64   Oklahoma State  71.17   Oklahoma State  141.26   UCF              +5.36
UCF             71.11   TCU             71.61   Kansas State    140.91   Kansas State     +2.37
Oklahoma State  70.09   Baylor          71.62   UCF             136.86   Oklahoma State   -1.09
West Virginia   67.62   West Virginia   73.69   Houston         128.26   West Virginia    -6.07

As expected, everyone is now in the Top 100, and Kansas is back on top.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          +9.51 ( 10)
Baylor          +8.90 ( 21)
West Virginia   +8.43 ( 25)
Kansas State    +6.85 ( 41)
Texas           +6.80 ( 43)
Houston         +5.98 ( 54)
Texas Tech      +5.70 ( 59)
Oklahoma        +5.56 ( 63)
BYU             +5.27 ( 66)
Cincinnati      +4.72 ( 74)
Oklahoma State  +4.47 ( 78)
Iowa State      +4.39 ( 80)
UCF             +4.29 ( 82)
TCU             +4.14 ( 83)