Big 12 projection, Round 15

Iowa State has now been mathematically eliminated.

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd10 Rd11 Rd12 Rd13 Rd14 Rd15 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----
#  5  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.4 12.9 11  4
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.3 12.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 11  4
# 11  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.4 10.9  9  6
# 27  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  9.9 10.5 10.0  9.4  9.9 10.5  9  6
# 22  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6 11.1 10.7  9.9 10.4 10.0  9.6  8  7
# 19  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.2  9.7  9.1  8.6  9.0  8.5  7  8
# 38  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  8.7  9.0  9.8  9.3  8.8  8.4  7  8
# 33  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  4.4  4.0  4.6  5.2  5.9  6.4  5 10
# 29  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  6.8  7.2  6.8  6.5  5.8  6.3  5 10
# 55  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  4.9  4.6  4.2  4.8  4.6  4.0  3 12
                     
Pred                 
Rank  Big XII Team   Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---------  --------------
#  5  Kansas          WVU Sat   KU  78  WVU 71
#  8  Texas          @BU  Sat  
# 11  Baylor          UT  Sat   BU  77  UT  76
# 27  Kansas State   @OSU Sat
# 22  Iowa State      OU  Sat   ISU 65  OU  59
# 19  TCU            @TTU Sat   TCU 71  TTU 71
# 38  Oklahoma State  KSU Sat   OSU 69  KSU 68
# 33  Texas Tech      TCU Sat
# 29  West Virginia  @KU  Sat
# 55  Oklahoma       @ISU Sat

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 14 with a total error of just 35 points.  Massey
was a distant second with a total error of 50 points.  The BPI pulled up the rear with a total error of
65.8 points.  Vegas retains the season lead with an average error of 8.9 points per game, while Dunkel
is still worst with an average error of 10.4 points per game.

Real Time took honors for best prognostications in Round 15 with a total error of 41 points.  That's
Real Time's fourth outright win on top of two other shared wins.  Well, even a broken clock is
correct twice a day.  Dunkel was worst with a total error of 75.5 points.  Vegas retains the season
lead with an average error of 9.0 points per game, while Dunkel is pulling up the rear at 10.7 points
per game.

Only one road win was projected for Round 15, but two happened, with Texas Tech winning in Norman
in addition to the projected Kansas win in Fort Worth.  Only one road win is projected for Round 16,
with TCU favored in Lubbock.  We're still right on the long-term road win rate of one in three games.

Road wins (25 out of 75)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
5 Kansas         TTU WVU OU  OSU TCU         1 Iowa State     OSU                         +4 KU 
4 Baylor         WVU TTU OU  TCU             1 Kansas         TCU                         +3 UT 
4 Texas          OU  OSU WVU KSU             1 Kansas State   UT                          +2 BU 
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     1 Texas          KSU                         +1 ISU
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     +1 KSU
2 Oklahoma State OU  ISU                     2 Oklahoma State UT  KU                       0 OSU
2 TCU            BU  KU                      3 TCU            ISU BU  KU                  -1 TCU
2 Texas Tech     WVU OU                      4 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU             -2 TTU         
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         4 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT  TTU             -3 WVU
1 West Virginia  TTU                         6 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU KU  TTU     -5 OU 

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +1.57    Oklahoma State    8.99
West Virginia   +1.31    Kansas State      9.55
Iowa State      +1.30    Texas            10.60
Texas           +0.91    Baylor           10.70
Kansas          +0.61    Iowa State       11.30
TCU             +0.37    Kansas           11.41
Baylor          -0.23    Texas Tech       11.98
Oklahoma State  -0.36    Oklahoma         12.14
Oklahoma        -0.45    West Virginia    12.65
Texas Tech      -0.65    TCU              13.47

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.31 +/- 0.32    TCU             +0.19 +/- 0.21
Kansas          +0.23 +/- 0.27    Kansas          +0.16 +/- 0.26
Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.23    Oklahoma        +0.16 +/- 0.24
Texas Tech      -0.01 +/- 0.29    Kansas State    -0.05 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  -0.03 +/- 0.21    West Virginia   -0.11 +/- 0.26
Baylor          -0.06 +/- 0.25    Iowa State      -0.18 +/- 0.19
Texas           -0.11 +/- 0.25    Texas           -0.24 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        -0.12 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma State  -0.25 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      -0.17 +/- 0.28    Baylor          -0.35 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   -0.24 +/- 0.30    Texas Tech      -0.43 +/- 0.19

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           78.79   Iowa State      62.30   Baylor          147.89   Texas            +9.79
Baylor          77.57   Oklahoma State  66.50   Texas           147.79   Kansas           +7.93
Kansas          76.18   TCU             67.61   West Virginia   147.21   TCU              +7.71
West Virginia   76.07   Kansas          68.25   Kansas          144.43   Baylor           +7.25
TCU             75.32   Kansas State    68.46   Kansas State    143.32   Kansas State     +6.39
Kansas State    74.86   Oklahoma        68.61   TCU             142.93   Iowa State       +6.37
Texas Tech      73.57   Texas Tech      68.61   Texas Tech      142.18   Texas Tech       +4.96
Oklahoma State  69.36   Texas           69.00   Oklahoma        136.46   West Virginia    +4.93
Iowa State      68.67   Baylor          70.32   Oklahoma State  135.86   Oklahoma State   +2.86
Oklahoma        67.86   West Virginia   71.14   Iowa State      130.96   Oklahoma         -0.75

Five of the top six strengths of schedule are in the Big 12.  Wow.  (Sparty holds #4.)

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          82.68 (  1)
Oklahoma        82.21 (  2)
Iowa State      82.16 (  3)
Baylor          81.85 (  5)
West Virginia   81.59 (  6)
Oklahoma State  80.94 ( 10)
Texas           80.43 ( 14)
TCU             79.86 ( 22)
Kansas State    79.85 ( 23)
Texas Tech      79.34 ( 34)