Big 12 projection, Round 9

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3  7  2  @KSU Sat                 
#  9  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2  6  3  @ISU Sat                 
# 18  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7  6  3  @OSU Sat                 
# 21  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6  6  3   KU  Sat   ISU 66  KU  65
# 11  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4  5  4   TTU Sat   BU  76  TTU 68
# 35  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  6  3   UT  Sat   KSU 75  UT  75
# 32  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  4  5   TCU Sat   OSU 67  TCU 66
# 31  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  2  7   OU  Sat   WVU 71  OU  66
# 50  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  2  7  @WVU Sat                 
# 36  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  1  8  @BU  Sat                 

My tweak to Sagarin Predictor that accounts for the slightly larger home court advantage in the
Big 12 took honors for best prognostications in Round 9 with a total error of just 20.7 points.
Colley pulled up the rear with a total error of 36.5 points.  Seven Overtimes retains the season
lead with an average error of just 7.7 points per game, while Dunkel remains in last place with
an average error of 9.6 points.

Only one road win was projected for Round 9, and one happened, just not the one that was
expected.  Iowa State lost to previously winless Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Oklahoma
team that destroyed #2 Alabama last weekend lost at home in Bedlam, Part 2.  No road wins
are projected for Round 10, though three of them are toss-up games.  We are two road wins
ahead of the long-term average of one in three games being a road win.

Road wins (17 out of 45)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Baylor         WVU TTU OU                  0 Iowa State                                 +2 ISU
3 Texas          OU  OSU WVU                 0 Kansas State                               +2 KSU
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     1 Kansas         TCU                         +2 UT 
2 Kansas         TTU WVU                     1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 BU 
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      1 TCU            ISU                         +1 KU 
2 TCU            BU  KU                      1 Texas          KSU                         +1 TCU
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         2 Baylor         TCU KSU                      0 OSU
1 Oklahoma State OU                          3 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT                  -2 WVU         
1 West Virginia  TTU                         4 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU             -3 OU 
0 Texas Tech                                 4 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU             -4 TTU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +2.14    Oklahoma State    8.22
West Virginia   +1.80    Kansas State      8.95
Iowa State      +1.77    Texas             9.75
Texas           +0.81    Baylor           10.34
TCU             +0.79    Oklahoma         10.90
Kansas          +0.44    West Virginia    11.11
Oklahoma        +0.10    Kansas           11.20
Oklahoma State  -0.02    Iowa State       11.41
Baylor          -0.40    Texas Tech       12.14
Texas Tech      -0.71    TCU              13.75

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.95 +/- 0.42    TCU             +0.33 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  +0.37 +/- 0.27    Oklahoma        +0.26 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma        +0.15 +/- 0.37    Kansas          +0.10 +/- 0.28
Kansas State    +0.14 +/- 0.31    West Virginia   +0.08 +/- 0.25
Kansas          -0.06 +/- 0.39    Kansas State    -0.09 +/- 0.20
Iowa State      -0.10 +/- 0.42    Iowa State      -0.18 +/- 0.21
Baylor          -0.15 +/- 0.35    Oklahoma State  -0.18 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   -0.34 +/- 0.38    Texas           -0.26 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.41 +/- 0.32    Baylor          -0.35 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      -0.42 +/- 0.41    Texas Tech      -0.51 +/- 0.20

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           79.05   Iowa State      61.76   Baylor          147.82   TCU             +10.82
Baylor          77.91   Oklahoma State  63.32   Texas           147.55   Texas           +10.55
TCU             76.82   Oklahoma        65.64   West Virginia   146.32   Iowa State       +8.71
Kansas State    76.73   TCU             66.00   Kansas State    145.50   Baylor           +8.00
West Virginia   76.41   Texas Tech      68.18   Kansas          144.55   Kansas State     +7.95
Kansas          76.05   Kansas          68.50   TCU             142.82   Kansas           +7.55
Texas Tech      74.05   Texas           68.50   Texas Tech      142.23   West Virginia    +6.50
Iowa State      70.48   Kansas State    68.77   Oklahoma        133.23   Texas Tech       +5.86
Oklahoma State  68.64   Baylor          69.91   Iowa State      132.24   Oklahoma State   +5.32
Oklahoma        67.59   West Virginia   69.91   Oklahoma State  131.95   Oklahoma         +1.95

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          81.86 (  1)
West Virginia   80.91 (  5)
Oklahoma        80.65 (  6)
Baylor          80.63 (  7)
Iowa State      80.47 (  8)
Oklahoma State  79.19 ( 16)
Texas           79.11 ( 18)
Kansas State    78.09 ( 36)
TCU             77.20 ( 55)
Texas Tech      76.80 ( 65)