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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Kansas State game
- asteroid
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1 year 3 months ago #30130
by asteroid
It's a big Tuesday for the Big 12. The top four teams are facing one another.
One of Texas and Iowa State will keep pace by winning to go to 5-1, while the
other will pick up their second loss to go to 4-2. Meanwhile, 5-0 Kansas is
in the Little Apple to take on 4-1 Kansas State. If Kansas wins, we'll have
just one team chasing us for the time being, but if Kansas loses, there will
be three teams with just 1 conference loss, with potentially 2 more close
behind with 2 conference losses.
Kansas State dared to run with Texas, the highest scoring team in the conference,
and it worked. The kittens scored 58 points in each of the two halves to win by
13, and the game was in Austin, no less. Will the kittens dare to run with
Kansas? The higher score totals of their West Virginia and Baylor games were
the result of overtimes, while in their last two games, the kitten's offense
generated fewer than 70 points, so the Texas game sort of stands out as more
of an anomaly.
Dunkel is the only contrarian, picking the kittens to win by 2 points. Everybody
else is picking Kansas, by anywhere from 1 to 4 points. Even the common opponent
comparison, based on only two games, is picking Kansas, but by just a single point.
Both teams have positive trends, though neither is statistically significant. The
mental toughness values have opposite signs, but again are not statistically
significant.
Kansas played both of the last two games below expectation, but still won both
games. That's now 8 below-expectation games for Kansas and 9 above-expectation
games. Meanwhile, Kansas State has played 11 above-expectation games and only 6
below-expectation games. They're due for more below expectation games, though the
most recent loss at TCU falls into that category.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats KSU KU Defensive Stats KSU KU
Points/Game 78.2 76.9 Opp Points/Game 67.2 65.2
Avg Score Margin +10.9 +11.7 Opp Effective FG % 47.3 45.9
Assists/Game 18.6 17.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.6 9.8
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.8 37.5 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.8 25.3
Effective FG % 53.0 53.6 Blocks/Game 3.1 4.1
Off Rebound % 31.3 30.2 Steals/Game 7.7 9.2
FTA/FGA 0.342 0.276 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.9 16.0
Turnover % 16.7 14.8
My Stats Comparison KU KSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.50 +3.05
inconsistency 10.10 9.14
trend +0.35 ± 0.51 +0.10 ± 0.47
mental toughness +0.18 ± 0.28 -0.12 ± 0.23
average total pts 142.06 145.41
Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely West Virginia and Oklahoma State:
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
KSU +6 WVU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +12 KSU on road (+16 neutral court)
KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KSU +8 OSU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU -10 KSU on road ( -6 neutral court)
Thet's an avergae of +1.0 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Markquis Nowell (guard)
most points Keyontae Johnson (forward)
most rebounds Keyontae Johnson (forward)
most assists Markquis Nowell (guard)
most steals Markquis Nowell (guard)
most blocks Nae'Qwan Tomlin (forward)
most turnovers Keyontae Johnson (forward)
most fouls Nae'Qwan Tomlin (forward)
Forward David N'Guessan is out with a shoulder injury. He's fifth on the team
in minutes played per game and also in points per game.
16-1 15-2
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kansas State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +2.52 71 68 59 # 5 # 3 # 29 # 60
Sagarin Predictor +2.47 71 68 60.1 # 7 # 3 # 38 # 60
Sagarin Golden Mean +3.73 72 68 # 2 # 3 # 30 # 60
Sagarin Recent Games +2.27 71 69 # 5 # 3 # 25 # 60
Sagarin Eigenvector +2.49 71 68 59
Massey +4.00 73 69 62 # 1 # 3 # 12 # 35
Pomeroy +2.15 74 72 # 7 # 4 # 26 # 51
Greenfield +2.00 75 73 # 7 # 2 # 31 # 41
Dunkel -2.00 76 78 # 2 # 14
Vegas (via Dunkel) +2.00 75 73
Dolphin Predictive +1.44 74 72 55.0 # 6 # 2 # 18 # 31
Real Time +1.00 74 73 50.7 # 1 # 14 # 7 # 86
Seven Overtimes +2.00 73 71 58 # 4 # 4 # 47 # 34
DPPI # # # #
ESPN BPI +1.30 54.9 # 8 # 3 # 33 # 52
Whitlock +1.86 # 4 # 4 # 15 # 52
Colley Matrix +1.63 # 1 # 5 # 8 # 70
NCAA NET # 5 # 14
LRMC # # # #
common opponents +1.00
Massey composite # 3 # 14
Pomeroy offense # 13 # 36
Pomeroy defense # 12 # 40
Pomeroy tempo #114 # 72
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +1.87 73.1 70.9 57.3
scatter 1.29 1.8 3.0 3.6
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #311 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +28.22 -3.22
HOME #226 North Dakota State 82 59 +22.94 +0.06
NEUT # 25 Duke 69 64 +3.28 +1.72
HOME #146 Southern Utah 82 76 +18.10 -12.10
NEUT # 43 NC State 80 74 +6.00 +0.00
NEUT # 52 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.71 -5.71
NEUT # 2 Tennessee 50 64 -2.73 -11.27
HOME #293 Texas Southern 87 55 +26.86 +5.14
HOME # 47 Seton Hall 91 65 +9.27 +16.73
AWAY # 64 Missouri 95 67 +4.78 +23.22
HOME # 17 Indiana 84 62 +5.43 +16.57
HOME #149 Harvard 68 54 +18.52 -4.52
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State 69 67 +7.93 -5.93
AWAY # 29 Texas Tech 75 72 +1.43 +1.57
AWAY # 37 West Virginia 76 62 +2.33 +11.67
HOME # 40 Oklahoma 79 75 +8.71 -4.71
HOME # 19 Iowa State 62 60 +5.80 -3.80
AWAY # 38 Kansas State +2.47 0.601
HOME # 20 TCU +5.84 0.692
AWAY # 12 Baylor -1.54 0.450
AWAY # 28 Kentucky +1.28 0.549
HOME # 38 Kansas State +8.35 0.807
AWAY # 19 Iowa State -0.08 0.497
HOME # 8 Texas +3.32 0.626
AWAY # 40 Oklahoma +2.83 0.621
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State +2.05 0.591
HOME # 12 Baylor +4.34 0.639
AWAY # 20 TCU -0.04 0.499
HOME # 37 West Virginia +8.21 0.773
HOME # 29 Texas Tech +7.31 0.734
AWAY # 8 Texas -2.56 0.402
Here is Kansas State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #301 UTRGV 93 59 +22.20 +11.80
AWAY #169 California 63 54 +8.32 +0.68
HOME #230 Kansas City(UMKC) 69 53 +17.84 -1.84
NEUT #193 Rhode Island 77 57 +12.61 +7.39
NEUT # 70 Nevada 96 87 +2.79 +6.21
NEUT # 84 LSU 61 59 +4.99 -2.99
AWAY # 72 Butler 64 76 +0.52 -12.52
HOME #109 Wichita State 55 50 +10.05 -5.05
HOME #206 Abilene Christian 81 64 +16.56 +0.44
HOME #355 Incarnate Word 98 50 +29.14 +18.86
HOME #100 Nebraska 71 56 +9.30 +5.70
HOME #179 Radford 73 65 +14.82 -6.82
HOME # 37 West Virginia 82 76 +2.80 +3.20
AWAY # 8 Texas 116 103 -7.97 +20.97
AWAY # 12 Baylor 97 95 -6.95 +8.95
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State 65 57 +2.52 +5.48
AWAY # 20 TCU 68 82 -5.45 -8.55
HOME # 7 Kansas -2.47 0.399
HOME # 29 Texas Tech +1.90 0.567
AWAY # 19 Iowa State -5.49 0.301
HOME # 35 Florida +2.65 0.603
AWAY # 7 Kansas -8.35 0.193
HOME # 8 Texas -2.09 0.416
HOME # 20 TCU +0.43 0.515
AWAY # 29 Texas Tech -3.98 0.362
AWAY # 40 Oklahoma -2.58 0.383
HOME # 19 Iowa State +0.39 0.515
HOME # 12 Baylor -1.07 0.464
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State -3.36 0.344
HOME # 40 Oklahoma +3.30 0.648
AWAY # 37 West Virginia -3.08 0.385
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi
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