predictions for Iowa State game

Yes, Iowa State is undefeated in conference games, but the toughest of
their four opponents was TCU, and they won by only 2, though it was a
road game for the Cyclones.  On the other hand, the four conference
victories amassed by Kansas have come against the bottom four teams in
the latest projected standings.  Today's game will be the toughest
conference test for either team.  Both teams played some tough
non-conference games; Kansas lost to #1 Tennessee on a neutral court
while Iowa State lost to #4 UConn on a neutral court.  The main difference
is that Iowa State also laid an egg against their in-state rival.  What's
more eye-popping is the 34-point home win over Texas Tech, a team that
Kansas sort of struggled to defeat in the end.  Then again, that game was
in Lubbock, and the final margin was small because of a frantic Red Raider
comeback effort; they had trailed by 10 points with just under 7 minutes
to play.  But a 10 point lead fairly late in a game pales in comparison to
a 34 point margin.

There is danger in focusing on just one game.  You really need to look
at the whole body of work.  When you do that, the Texas Tech outcome
was a whopping 29 points above expectation for Iowa State.  Can
lightning strike twice?  Well, that result may give the Cyclones greater
confidence, shrinking the predicted margin for today.  Every single
prognosticator that I follow is picking the Jayhawks, but the common
opponent comparison, skewed by that Texas Tech result, is picking the
Cyclones by double digits.  Real Time, with its huge home advantage,
is the most optimistic for Kansas with a 14 point margin.  Dunkel is
not far behind at 13 points.  Sagarin's peculiar eigenvector analysis
is just a bit under 11 points.  The BPI is the least optimistic with
just a 5.6 point margin, excluding the common opponent comparison.
The average is 7.2 points, and it would be closer to 9 points if the
common opponent value was omitted.

What stands out among the various rankings is that Pomeroy has the
Cyclones with the #6 defense, compared to #13 for Kansas.  You think
they'll make it difficult for Gradey Dick to launch his threes?

Iowa State has played four consecutive above-expectation games, though
the two home games were substantially better than the two road games.
Kansas is coming off a below-expectation performance against Oklahoma.

Both teams have similar positive trends, but neither is statistically
significant, though the Jayhawks come closer to having a significant
positive trend than do the Cyclones.  The mental toughness value for
Kansas is positive while negative for Iowa State, but neither value is
statistically significant.

Kansas is a couple points more consistent than Iowa State, though the
Cyclones were more consistent until that Texas Tech blowout.  I'd be
feeling a lot better about this game if it weren't for that singular
trouncing of the Red Raiders.  Hopefully the Jayhawks will be as
concerned as I am and will come out focused.  Sure glad the game is
in Allen Field House, though there is the possibility of the 125th
celebration being a distraction.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      ISU     KU      Defensive Stats      ISU     KU
Points/Game         71.5    77.8     Opp Points/Game     57.7    65.5
Avg Score Margin   +13.9   +12.3     Opp Effective FG %  46.6    46.0
Assists/Game        16.4    17.5     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.2    10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.3    37.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     20.6    25.3
Effective FG %      52.7    53.7     Blocks/Game          2.9     4.0
Off Rebound %       32.7    30.9     Steals/Game         10.3     9.2
FTA/FGA            0.246   0.270     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.1    16.3
Turnover %          16.3    14.6

My Stats Comparison        KU              ISU 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.47           +2.82    
inconsistency         10.32           12.15    
trend                 +0.55 ± 0.56    +0.52 ± 0.74
mental toughness      +0.20 ± 0.29    -0.17 ± 0.25
average total pts      143.31         129.20    

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Oklahoma and Texas Tech:

KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
ISU  +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
ISU +34 TTU at home (+30 neutral court)
KU  -20 ISU at home (-23 neutral court)

Thet's an avergae of -11.5 points!

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Caleb Grill (guard)
most points        Jaren Holmes (guard)
most rebounds      Aljaz Kunc (forward)
most assists       Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most steals        Gabe Kalscheur (guard)
most blocks        Osun Osunniyi (center)
most turnovers     Jaren Holmes (guard)
most fouls         Robert Jones (forward)

Forward Aljaz Kunc is out with a fractured finger.  Guard Jeremiah Williams is out
for the season with an Achilles tendon injury.

                                                          15-1           13-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +6.91   69   62       73       #  3   #  2    # 35   # 24
Sagarin Predictor       +6.37   69   63       71.4     #  5   #  2    # 36   # 24 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.94   70   61                #  2   #  2    # 38   # 24 
Sagarin Recent Games    +6.11   69   63                #  3   #  2    # 36   # 24
Sagarin Eigenvector    +10.76   71   61       82    
Massey                  +9.00   72   63       78       #  1   #  2    # 12   # 20
Pomeroy                 +6.98   68   61                #  7   #  6    # 17   # 70
Greenfield              +8.00   71.5 63.5              #  6   #  3    # 15   # 10
Dunkel                 +13.00   76   63                #  2           # 16
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.50   71   63                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +6.54   68   61       72.5     #  6   #  3    #  7   #  8
Real Time              +14.00   82   68       85.6     #  1   # 16    # 14   #122 
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   71   65       75       #  7   #  6    # 37   # 68
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +5.60                 70.7     #  8   #  4    # 14   # 31
Whitlock                +8.93                          #  4   #  4    # 21   # 51
Colley Matrix           +9.57                          #  1   #  7    # 19   #112
NCAA NET                                               #  5           # 10 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents       -11.50         
Massey composite                                       #  2           # 15
Pomeroy offense                                        # 13           # 80
Pomeroy defense                                        # 13           #  6
Pomeroy tempo                                          #113           #296
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.22   71.4 62.9     76.0
scatter                  5.39    3.8  2.0      5.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #295 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +27.75    -2.75
HOME   #239 North Dakota State          82  59   +24.24    -1.24
NEUT   # 22 Duke                        69  64    +3.76    +1.24
HOME   #143 Southern Utah               82  76   +18.77   -12.77
NEUT   # 42 NC State                    80  74    +6.37    -0.37
NEUT   # 50 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.15    -6.15
NEUT   #  1 Tennessee                   50  64    -3.22   -10.78
HOME   #284 Texas Southern              87  55   +27.13    +4.87
HOME   # 41 Seton Hall                  91  65    +9.39   +16.61
AWAY   # 56 Missouri                    95  67    +4.63   +23.37
HOME   # 20 Indiana                     84  62    +6.58   +15.42
HOME   #151 Harvard                     68  54   +19.04    -5.04
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.29    -6.29
AWAY   # 33 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.21    +0.79
AWAY   # 34 West Virginia               76  62    +2.56   +11.44
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                    79  75    +8.84    -4.84
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +6.38             0.714
AWAY   # 30 Kansas State                          +2.12             0.588
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   +7.06             0.724
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                -0.87             0.472
AWAY   # 35 Kentucky                              +2.60             0.597
HOME   # 30 Kansas State                          +8.26             0.806
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                            +0.24             0.508
HOME   #  7 Texas                                 +4.01             0.650
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              +2.70             0.611
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +2.15             0.594
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +5.27             0.666
AWAY   # 26 TCU                                   +0.92             0.531
HOME   # 34 West Virginia                         +8.70             0.781
HOME   # 33 Texas Tech                            +8.35             0.757
AWAY   #  7 Texas                                 -2.13             0.419

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #360 IUPUI                       88  39   +33.80   +15.20
HOME   #272 NC A&T                      80  43   +23.45   +13.55
HOME   #209 Milwaukee                   68  53   +19.56    -4.56
NEUT   # 57 Villanova                   81  79    +4.43    -2.43
NEUT   # 21 North Carolina              70  65    +0.38    +4.62
NEUT   #  4 Connecticut                 53  71    -4.24   -13.76
HOME   #330 North Dakota                63  44   +26.87    -7.87
HOME   # 69 St. John's                  71  60    +8.98    +2.02
AWAY   # 24 Iowa                        56  75    -2.52   -16.48
HOME   #332 McNeese State               77  40   +27.20    +9.80
HOME   #282 Western Michigan            73  57   +23.77    -7.77
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      77  62    +1.96   +13.04
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    63  60    -0.61    +3.61
AWAY   # 26 TCU                         69  67    -2.39    +4.39
HOME   # 33 Texas Tech                  84  50    +5.04   +28.96
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                                -6.38             0.286
HOME   #  7 Texas                                 +0.70             0.525
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        -1.16             0.454
HOME   # 30 Kansas State                          +4.95             0.680
AWAY   # 56 Missouri                              +1.32             0.542
AWAY   # 33 Texas Tech                            -1.10             0.466
HOME   #  6 Kansas                                -0.24             0.492
AWAY   # 34 West Virginia                         -0.75             0.475
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +4.98             0.689
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   +3.75             0.616
AWAY   # 30 Kansas State                          -1.19             0.455
AWAY   #  7 Texas                                 -5.44             0.316
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                              +5.53             0.700
HOME   # 34 West Virginia                         +5.39             0.672
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                -4.18             0.375