predictions for Kentucky game

Like Kansas, Kentucky has lost four games.  Three of those came on the
road, the remaining one was on a neutral court.  Their 2-3 road record
includes a loss to the #135 team in Sagarin Predictor, along with the
#60 and #63 teams.  Meanwhile, Kansas also sports a 2-3 road record,
but those losses were to the #2, #22, and #69 teams.  We're lucky that
this game is in Allen Field House.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, with a 70.2 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 147.5 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 77, Kentucky 71.  Kansas
has been playing 0.6 points above expectation, while Kentucky has been
playing right at expectation, which means that the margin for Kansas could
be 6.6 points.  Kansas now has a strongly negative trend, while Kentucky
has a weakly positive trend.  Kansas also has a negative mental toughness
rating, while Kentucky's is positive, though neither is statistically
significant.  Taken at face value, that negative trend for Kansas reduces
the margin to just 1.0 point.  The Wildcats are slightly more consistent
than the Jayhawks.  Kansas has played 5 of 19 Division I games below
expectation by enough to lose, though only 2 of those came at home,
corresponding to a 26 percent chance of losing.  Meanwhile, Kentucky has
played 7 of 20 games above expectation by enough to win, including their
last 3 games, which is the worrisome part, but only 2 of those 7 above
expectation performances came on the road.  The probability of the
Wildcats winning would be 35 percent.  So those two probabilities average
to 30.7 percent, in good agreement with the value derived from the Sagarin
ratings shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, with a 70 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Kentucky 72.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 2.6 units, but
Kentucky has the better adjusted defense by 0.8 units, which combine to a
1.8 units advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 70.1 possessions per
game, the margin for Kansas works out to 1.26 points on a neutral court.
Add Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, and the margin becomes 4.5
points.  The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 76, Kentucky 71.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 4.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 75.5 (you pick the rounding) to 71.  Among the key offensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of eight categories; Kentucky grabs
more total rebounds per game, gets a higher offensive rebound percentage,
and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three of seven categories, namely
defensive rebounds per game, steals per game, and personal fouls per game.

Dunkel makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 5.0 points, so he is picking Kentucky against the spread and in the game.
With a total points projection of 144, the implied final score is Kansas 71.5,
Kentucky 72.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total
is 149.5, which would imply a final score of Kansas 77, Kentucky 72.

Real Time gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin with a final score of 85 to 73.  The
probability of winning the game is given as 70.7 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 4.9 point margin, with a 66.1 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 77, Kentucky 72.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 3.1 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 2.2 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by 5.5 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 0.1 points in favor of
Kentucky on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage,
and Kansas has a 3.2 point margin.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 3.0 point margin, corresponding to a 60 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 75 to 72.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 8.4 point margin.

There are two common opponents, namely UCLA and Vanderbilt:

KU  +19 UCLA neutral (+19 neutral)
UK  -10 UCLA on road ( -6 neutral)
KU  +29 UK   at home (+25 neutral)

KU   +7 Vand neutral ( +7 neutral)
UK  +19 Vand at home (+15 neutral)
KU   -4 UK   at home ( -8 neutral)

Kansas and Kentucky split the comparions, though the average favors Kansas
by 12.5 points, thanks to the huge win over UCLA in Maui.

Players to watch:  Guard Tyler Ulis plays the most minutes and dishes the most
assists.  Guard Jamal Murray scores the most points, but also commits the most
turnovers.  Forward Alex Poythress grabs the msot rebounds, but also commits
the most personal fouls.  Forward Marcus Lee blocks the most shots.  Guard
Isaiah Briscoe is their leading thief.  Guard Dominique Hawkins has an ankle
injury and is questionable for the game, but he plays under 9 minutes a game.

The average of the various prognostications is 5.7 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 77, Kentucky 71.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   #  6   #  9   #  8   # 15   +0.6   11.4   -0.73 +/- 0.46   -0.20 +/- 0.24
Kentucky       # 20   # 56   # 21   # 20   # 21    0.0   11.1   +0.28 +/- 0.44   +0.12 +/- 0.31
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         # 12  #  7   # 15   #  8   #  7  #  3    # 17    #  3   # 10   #  7   #  9
Kentucky       # 21  # 39   # 22   # 58   # 19  # 32    # 16    # 18   # 56   # 18   # 58
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  9   #  9   # 11   # 13   #  7   #  6   # 10   1.012   16-4     #     #   
Kentucky       # 22   # 22   # 20   # 22   # 18   # 22   # 20   0.676   16-4     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 10  #  4    #  9  # 27    # 21  # 60    # 17  # 11    # 18  #  9    #  6  #  4
Kentucky       # 22  # 45    # 19  # 37    # 19  # 65    # 19  # 14    #  7  # 11    # 25  # 71

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #306 Northern Colorado          109  72   +32.19    +4.81
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              73  79    -1.22    -4.78
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 60 UCLA                        92  73    +9.58    +9.42
NEUT   # 20 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +2.43    +4.57
HOME   #270 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +28.90    +4.10
HOME   #147 Harvard                     75  69   +20.25   -14.25
HOME   #300 Holy Cross                  92  59   +31.44    +1.56
HOME   # 77 Oregon State                82  67   +13.94    +1.06
HOME   #173 Montana                     88  46   +22.37   +19.63
AWAY   # 70 San Diego State             70  57    +7.08    +5.92
HOME   # 88 UC Irvine                   78  53   +14.99   +10.01
HOME   # 27 Baylor                     102  74    +7.59   +20.41
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma                   109 106    +1.70    +1.30
AWAY   # 54 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.43    +4.57
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               63  74    -4.93    -6.07
HOME   #128 TCU                         70  63   +19.09   -12.09
AWAY   # 69 Oklahoma State              67  86    +7.06   -26.06
HOME   # 37 Texas                       76  67    +9.21    -0.21
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    -0.53   -12.47
HOME   # 21 Kentucky                              +5.98             0.702
HOME   # 43 Kansas State                         +10.63             0.862
AWAY   #128 TCU                                  +12.57             0.884
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         +1.59             0.558
AWAY   #  3 Oklahoma                              -4.82             0.311
HOME   # 69 Oklahoma State                       +13.58             0.887
AWAY   # 43 Kansas State                          +4.11             0.663
AWAY   # 27 Baylor                                +1.07             0.537
HOME   # 54 Texas Tech                           +11.95             0.903
AWAY   # 37 Texas                                 +2.69             0.595
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +5.99             0.720

Here is Kentucky's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #134 Albany-NY                   78  65   +16.84    -3.84
HOME   #207 NJIT(New Jersey Tech)       87  57   +22.14    +7.86
NEUT   # 11 Duke                        74  63    -2.25   +13.25
HOME   #159 Wright State                78  63   +18.35    -3.35
HOME   #233 Boston U.                   82  62   +23.58    -3.58
NEUT   #226 South Florida               84  63   +20.07    +0.93
HOME   #163 Illinois State              75  63   +18.67    -6.67
AWAY   # 60 UCLA                        77  87    +3.60   -13.60
HOME   #227 Eastern Kentucky            88  67   +23.36    -2.36
HOME   # 56 Arizona State               72  58    +9.40    +4.60
NEUT   # 67 Ohio State                  67  74    +7.44   -14.44
HOME   #  1 Louisville                  75  73    -2.02    +4.02
HOME   #105 Mississippi                 83  61   +14.08    +7.92
AWAY   # 63 LSU                         67  85    +3.94   -21.94
AWAY   # 92 Alabama                     77  61    +6.51    +9.49
HOME   #100 Mississippi State           80  74   +13.75    -7.75
AWAY   #135 Auburn                      70  75   +10.36   -15.36
AWAY   # 49 Arkansas                    80  66    +2.00   +12.00
HOME   # 20 Vanderbilt                  76  57    +2.97   +16.03
HOME   #153 Missouri                    88  54   +18.00   +16.00
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                                -5.98             0.297