Big 12 projection, Round 4

Battle of unbeatens in Lawrence on Saturday.  Someone will pick up their
first conference loss.

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  6  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8  4  0   ISU Sat   KU  67  ISU 60
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4  3  1   TTU Sat   UT  74  TTU 64
# 19  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2  4  0  @KU  Sat                 
# 32  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  4  0  @TCU Sat                 
# 26  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  2  2   KSU Sat   TCU 72  KSU 70
# 12  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  1  3   OSU Sat   BU  70  OSU 65
# 30  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  1  3  @BU  Sat                 
# 36  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  1  3   WVU Sat   OU  67  WVU 64
# 33  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  0  4  @UT  Sat                 
# 34  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  0  4  @OU  Sat                 

For the second time this season, Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 4.  Real Time
brought up the rear by a wide margin.  Seven Overtimes continues to hold the season lead, while
Real Time is now bringing up the rear.  The per game errors jumped, thanks to nobody expecting Iowa
State's blowout win over Texas Tech.

No road wins were projected for Round 4, but one happened, namely Baylor at West Virginia.  Once
again, no road wins are projected for Round 5, though two games are projected to be one-possession
affairs and could easily go either way.

Road wins (11 out of 20)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     0 Iowa State                                 +2 ISU
2 Kansas         TTU WVU                     0 Kansas                                     +2 KU 
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      0 Kansas State                               +2 KSU
2 Texas          OU  OSU                     1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 UT 
1 Baylor         WVU                         1 TCU            ISU                          0 TCU
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         1 Texas          KSU                         -1 BU 
1 TCU            BU                          2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     -1 OU 
0 Oklahoma State                             2 Texas Tech     KU  OU                      -1 OSU         
0 Texas Tech                                 2 Oklahoma       UT  ISU                     -2 TTU
0 West Virginia                              2 West Virginia  KU  BU                      -2 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +3.13    Oklahoma State    7.49
West Virginia   +2.13    Oklahoma          8.61
Iowa State      +2.94    Kansas State      8.93
Kansas          +1.47    Kansas           10.36
Texas           +1.22    Texas            10.50
Baylor          +0.33    West Virginia    12.00
Oklahoma        -0.13    Iowa State       12.13
TCU             -0.22    TCU              13.27
Texas Tech      -0.24    Texas Tech       13.37
Oklahoma State  -0.32    Baylor           14.07

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.47 +/- 0.63    Oklahoma        +0.40 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        +0.70 +/- 0.45    TCU             +0.27 +/- 0.25
Kansas          +0.58 +/- 0.56    Kansas          +0.21 +/- 0.28
Iowa State      +0.51 +/- 0.74    West Virginia   +0.01 +/- 0.31
Kansas State    +0.42 +/- 0.49    Kansas State    -0.04 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  +0.22 +/- 0.42    Oklahoma State  -0.14 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech      -0.63 +/- 0.73    Iowa State      -0.17 +/- 0.25
Texas           -0.76 +/- 0.55    Texas           -0.23 +/- 0.22
West Virginia   -1.19 +/- 0.59    Baylor          -0.36 +/- 0.29
Baylor          -1.25 +/- 0.72    Texas Tech      -0.63 +/- 0.24

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           80.94   Iowa State      58.47   Baylor          151.31   Texas           +14.06
Baylor          80.25   Oklahoma State  62.12   Texas           147.81   Iowa State      +12.27
Kansas State    78.19   Oklahoma        63.19   West Virginia   147.19   TCU             +11.62
West Virginia   77.62   TCU             65.31   Kansas State    145.12   Kansas State    +11.25
Kansas          77.06   Texas Tech      66.12   Kansas          143.31   Kansas          +10.81
TCU             76.94   Kansas          66.25   TCU             142.25   Texas Tech       +9.50
Texas Tech      75.62   Texas           66.88   Texas Tech      141.75   Baylor           +9.19
Iowa State      70.73   Kansas State    66.94   Oklahoma        131.44   West Virginia    +8.06
Oklahoma        68.25   West Virginia   69.56   Oklahoma State  130.31   Oklahoma State   +6.06
Oklahoma State  68.19   Baylor          71.06   Iowa State      129.20   Oklahoma         +5.06

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          79.43 (  4)
Oklahoma        78.29 ( 14)
West Virginia   77.78 ( 20)
Oklahoma State  77.29 ( 28)
Baylor          77.12 ( 31)
Iowa State      76.70 ( 38)
Kansas State    74.96 ( 81)
Texas           74.51 (100)
TCU             72.34 (195)
Texas Tech      72.33 (196)