×
Message from Dave..... Moderator Approval

Don't panic if your post doesn't appear immediately.

× Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball

Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage

predictions for Oklahoma game

  • asteroid
  • asteroid's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
More
1 year 2 months ago #30065 by asteroid
The initial Big 12 conference projection called for Kansas to have just 11.6 wins.
Hold serve at home (9 wins), and you just need 2 or 3 road wins to achieve that
projection.  The Jayhawks already have 2 of those road wins; it'll be a while
before they get a chance at that third road win.  But the conference season has
started well for the Jayhawks.

The key words above are "hold serve at home".  Today's game is as easy as it
gets, at least on paper.  If you look at the predictions for all the remaining
games in the table below, the 9.9 points associated with today's game is the
largest of the bunch.  But you can't take the Sooners lightly.

What stands out about Oklahoma is the pace of their play.  Pomeroy has them
ranked #345 in tempo, and that's out of 363 Division I teams.  Expect them to
try and slow down the game.  On the other hand, Kansas is averaging 9 steals
per game, which gives the Jayhawks the opportunity to run.  Oklahoma's turnover
percentage is 18.

Oklahoma has played above expectation in three of their last four games, while
Kansas has played above expectation in six of their last eight games.  Both
teams have positive trends with marginal statistical significance.  Both teams
have positive mental toughness values, though Oklahoma's is statistically
significant, whereas Kansas' is not.

The peculiar thing about Oklahoma is that they've lost both conference home
games and won their only conference road game.  Let's hope that trend doesn't
continue.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OU      KU      Defensive Stats      OU      KU
Points/Game         68.3    77.7     Opp Points/Game     61.6    64.9
Avg Score Margin    +6.7   +12.9     Opp Effective FG %  46.4    45.8
Assists/Game        14.2    18.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      5.1    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   31.7    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.1    25.5
Effective FG %      56.3    54.5     Blocks/Game          3.0     4.0
Off Rebound %       20.1    31.1     Steals/Game          6.1     9.3
FTA/FGA            0.268   0.245     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.5    16.3
Turnover %          17.9    15.1

My Stats Comparison        KU              OU  
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.46           +0.11    
inconsistency         10.60            8.83    
trend                 +0.91 ± 0.61    +0.69 ± 0.51
mental toughness      +0.23 ± 0.28    +0.42 ± 0.20
average total pts      142.60         129.93    

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Seton Hall and Texas Tech:

KU  +26 SH  at home (+22 neutral court)
OU  +13 SH  neutral (+13 neutral court)
KU  +13 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OU   +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral court)   OVERTIME GAME
KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)

If you consider how Oklahoma did in just regulation, then the margin becomes
zero (though +4 on a neutral court), which would make Kansas +3 on a neutral
court and +7 at home.  The two common opponents would then average +10 for
Kansas.  I will use this revised value in the table below.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Grant Sherfield (guard)
most points        Grant Sherfield (guard)
most rebounds      Tanner Groves (forward)
most assists       Grant Sherfield (guard)
most steals        Grant Sherfield (guard)
most blocks        Tanner Groves (forward)
most turnovers     Grant Sherfield (guard)
most fouls         Tanner Groves (forward)

Reserve forward Yaya Keita is out for the season following shin surgery.

                                                          14-1           10-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +10.40   71   60       81       #  3   #  2    # 35   # 24
Sagarin Predictor       +9.89   70   61       84.5     #  5   #  2    # 36   # 24 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +11.35   71   60                #  2   #  2    # 38   # 24 
Sagarin Recent Games   +10.15   71   60                #  3   #  2    # 36   # 24
Sagarin Eigenvector    +13.48   72   59       86    
Massey                  +8.00   73   65       76       #  1   #  1    # 33   # 22
Pomeroy                 +9.02   68   59                #  5   #  3    # 31   # 18
Greenfield             +10.00   72   62                #  6   #  2    # 35   # 23
Dunkel                  +5.50   68   63                #  2           # 44
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.50   72   62                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +10.72   73   62       83.1     #  5   #  1    # 38   # 25
Real Time              +18.00   83   65       90.9     #  1   #  8    # 54   # 41 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   72   65       74       #  5   #  6    # 41   # 77
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +9.10                 81.8     #  7   #  1    # 37   # 21
Whitlock               +10.89                          #  4   #  4    # 45   # 12
Colley Matrix          +13.89                          #  1   #  7    # 55   # 28
NCAA NET                                               #  4           # 48 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents       +10.00         
Massey composite                                       #  2           # 43
Pomeroy offense                                        #  8           # 37
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           # 46
Pomeroy tempo                                          #148           #345
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +10.41   72.0 61.8     82.2
scatter                  2.82    3.7  2.2      5.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 25-6
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #293 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +28.29    -3.29
HOME   #243 North Dakota State          82  59   +25.31    -2.31
NEUT   # 20 Duke                        69  64    +4.06    +0.94
HOME   #155 Southern Utah               82  76   +20.02   -14.02
NEUT   # 39 NC State                    80  74    +7.02    -1.02
NEUT   # 46 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.51    -6.51
NEUT   #  1 Tennessee                   50  64    -3.31   -10.69
HOME   #281 Texas Southern              87  55   +27.66    +4.34
HOME   # 53 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.97   +15.03
AWAY   # 51 Missouri                    95  67    +4.64   +23.36
HOME   # 17 Indiana                     84  62    +6.39   +15.61
HOME   #137 Harvard                     68  54   +19.22    -5.22
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.66    -6.66
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                  75  72    +1.91    +1.09
AWAY   # 33 West Virginia               76  62    +2.75   +11.25
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                              +9.89             0.845
HOME   # 28 Iowa State                            +8.18             0.785
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          +3.12             0.623
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   +8.07             0.745
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                                +0.15             0.505
AWAY   # 30 Kentucky                              +2.39             0.588
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          +9.24             0.824
AWAY   # 28 Iowa State                            +2.06             0.579
HOME   #  7 Texas                                 +4.40             0.660
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              +3.77             0.650
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma State                        +2.54             0.608
HOME   # 16 Baylor                                +6.27             0.688
AWAY   # 26 TCU                                   +1.95             0.563
HOME   # 33 West Virginia                         +8.87             0.782
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                            +8.03             0.769
AWAY   #  7 Texas                                 -1.72             0.436

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 85 Sam Houston State           51  52    +7.76    -8.76
HOME   #349 Ark.-Pine Bluff             66  58   +27.28   -19.28
HOME   #129 NC Wilmington               74  53   +11.78    +9.22
HOME   #177 South Alabama               64  60   +14.28   -10.28
NEUT   # 89 Nebraska                    69  56    +4.88    +8.12
NEUT   # 53 Seton Hall                  77  64    +1.08   +11.92
NEUT   # 80 Mississippi                 59  55    +3.91    +0.09
AWAY   # 52 Villanova                   66  70    -2.18    -1.82
HOME   #227 Kansas City(UMKC)           75  53   +17.28    +4.72
AWAY   # 13 Arkansas                    78  88    -6.89    -3.11
HOME   #343 Central Arkansas            87  66   +25.57    -4.57
NEUT   # 45 Florida                     62  53    +0.66    +8.34
HOME   #  7 Texas                       69  70    -2.43    +1.43
HOME   # 28 Iowa State                  60  63    +1.35    -4.35
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                  68  63    -4.92    +9.92
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                                -9.89             0.155
HOME   # 33 West Virginia                         +2.04             0.576
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma State                        -4.29             0.303
HOME   # 16 Baylor                                -0.56             0.481
AWAY   # 26 TCU                                   -4.88             0.336
HOME   #  6 Alabama                               -2.54             0.400
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma State                        +1.83             0.587
AWAY   # 33 West Virginia                         -4.08             0.350
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                                -6.68             0.290
HOME   #  5 Kansas                                -3.77             0.350
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          +2.41             0.605
AWAY   #  7 Texas                                 -8.55             0.192
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                            +1.20             0.547
AWAY   # 28 Iowa State                            -4.77             0.307
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          -3.71             0.340
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   +1.24             0.543
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, newtonhawk

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Share this page:

 

Powered by Kunena Forum