Big 12 projection, Round 3

Battle of the winless in Morgantown on Wednesday.  Someone will pick up their
first conference win.  Would rather it be West Virginia, and then Baylor would
be in an even deeper hole.

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game   Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  4  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1  3  0   OU  Tue   KU  68  OU  59
#  7  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2  2  1   TCU Wed   UT  74  TCU 66
# 28  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1  3  0   TTU Tue   ISU 63  TTU 59
# 35  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6  3  0   OSU Tue   KSU 68  OSU 65
# 23  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  2  1  @UT  Wed   
# 17  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  0  3  @WVU Wed   
# 30  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  1  2  @KSU Tue   
# 26  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  0  3  @ISU Tue   
# 37  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  1  2  @KU  Tue   
# 32  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  0  3   BU  Wed   WVU 74  BU  71

Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 3, and by a fairly wide margin.
Dunkel edged out Real Time for worst.  Seven Overtimes now holds the season lead, while
Dunkel is still pulling up the rear.  I need to find a better way to display these data,
as the table is now too wide.

There were just two projected road wins for Round 3, but five actually happened.  Just one-sixth
of the way through the conference season, but already one-third of the way to the usual 30 road
wins.  Something just feels different about this season considering all the parity in the
conference.  No road wins are projected for Round 4.

Road wins (10 out of 15)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     0 Iowa State                                 +2 ISU
2 Kansas         TTU WVU                     0 Kansas                                     +2 KU 
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      0 Kansas State                               +2 KSU
2 Texas          OU  OSU                     1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 UT 
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         1 TCU            ISU                          0 TCU
1 TCU            BU                          1 Texas          KSU                         -1 OU 
0 Baylor                                     1 West Virginia  KU                          -1 OSU
0 Oklahoma State                             2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     -1 WVU         
0 Texas Tech                                 2 Texas Tech     KU  OU                      -2 BU 
0 West Virginia                              2 Oklahoma       UT  ISU                     -2 TTU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +3.37    Oklahoma State    7.81
West Virginia   +2.46    Kansas State      9.19
Iowa State      +2.08    Oklahoma          9.93
Oklahoma        +1.54    Iowa State       10.08
Kansas          +1.45    Kansas           10.63
Texas           +1.12    Texas            10.71
Texas Tech      +0.77    Texas Tech       11.27
Baylor          +0.24    West Virginia    12.14
TCU             -0.23    TCU              13.75
Oklahoma State  -0.36    Baylor           14.60

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.71 +/- 0.71    Oklahoma        +0.51 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma        +0.94 +/- 0.56    TCU             +0.30 +/- 0.28
Kansas          +0.92 +/- 0.61    Kansas          +0.23 +/- 0.29
Kansas State    +0.47 +/- 0.55    West Virginia    0.00 +/- 0.33
Oklahoma State  +0.47 +/- 0.47    Kansas State    -0.04 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech      +0.05 +/- 0.70    Oklahoma State  -0.09 +/- 0.22
Iowa State      -0.25 +/- 0.69    Texas           -0.23 +/- 0.23
Texas           -0.81 +/- 0.62    Iowa State      -0.24 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   -1.23 +/- 0.67    Baylor          -0.40 +/- 0.30
Baylor          -1.66 +/- 0.78    Texas Tech      -0.44 +/- 0.23

Some of these scoring numbers get distorted by overtime games.  I really should keep a separate
set of scores for the end of regulation.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           81.20   Iowa State      58.93   Baylor          150.67   Texas           +15.00
Baylor          79.93   Oklahoma State  62.07   Texas           147.40   TCU             +12.40
Kansas State    79.20   Oklahoma        62.27   Kansas State    146.67   Texas Tech      +12.13
West Virginia   77.73   TCU             64.53   West Virginia   146.27   Kansas State    +11.73
Texas Tech      77.20   Texas Tech      65.07   Kansas          142.60   Kansas          +11.53
Kansas          77.07   Kansas          65.53   Texas Tech      142.27   Iowa State      +11.00
TCU             76.93   Texas           66.20   TCU             141.47   Baylor           +9.20
Iowa State      69.93   Kansas State    67.47   Oklahoma State  130.87   West Virginia    +9.20
Oklahoma State  68.80   West Virginia   68.53   Oklahoma        129.93   Oklahoma State   +6.73
Oklahoma        67.67   Baylor          70.73   Iowa State      128.86   Oklahoma         +5.40

Iowa Sate and Kansas State have now joined the Top 100 in strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          79.69 (  2)
Oklahoma        77.44 ( 21)
West Virginia   77.43 ( 22)
Oklahoma State  76.18 ( 44)
Iowa State      75.96 ( 48)
Baylor          75.84 ( 53)
Kansas State    74.61 ( 97)
Texas           73.53 (139)
Texas Tech      71.09 (260)
TCU             70.97 (263)

I just discovered a glitch in my database for Oklahoma's season.
Instead of Oklahoma beating Central Arkansas, I had Oklahoma
beating Oklahoma!  Naturally, that affects the computations.

performance +0.04 points
inconsistency 8.91 points
trend +0.70 +/- 0.52 points per game
mental toughness +0.42 +/- 0.20