predictions for West Virginia game

The Sagarin Predictor ratings, through games on Tuesday, showed less than a 6 point
difference between Kansas on the top and Oklahoma on the bottom.  The home court
advantage was 3.5 points in the Big 12 last season, which means that EVERY road
game for Kansas is projected to be a one-possession affair.  In other words, get
used to what we saw on Tuesday in Lubbock.

Because of the difficulties in traveling for West Virginia, they like to get two
road games out of the way with one road trip before classes start, so the
Mountaineers historically begin conference play with two road games, and this
year they dropped both contests.  So you can imagine that they'll be hungry for
a victory in their home conference opener.  Bad luck for them that their starting
point guard is out for the game due to concussion protocol.  In a game that is
projected to be that close, the loss of a key starter just might make enough of
a difference for Kansas to pick up a second consecutive road win and add some
cushion over the second-place team.

Almost everybody is calling for it to be a one-possession affair, with Colley
being the most optimistic, having West Virginia ranked lower than most and
Kansas ranked higher than most, making for an almost 6 point margin in favor
of the Jayhawks.  All the Sagarin variants, Massey, Pomeroy, Greenfield, and
Begas have Kansas in a squeaker.  The rest have West Virginia in a squeaker.

Our one common opponent is Oklahoma State, and although Kansas won and West
Virginia lost, the circumstances are the worst possible, in that Kansas was
at home, West Virginia was on the road, and Kansas is on the road for today's
game.  Assuming a 4 point home court advantage, that amounts to 12 points,
so the fact that Kansas won by 2 and West Virginia lost by 7, for a 9 point
differential, turns into a 3 point margin in favor of West Virginia.

The Mountaineers are more underrated by about a point, are more inconsistent
by about a point, but have a negative trend of a point per game, in contrast
to the positive trend for Kansas of a point per game.  West Virginia is on a
three-game below-expectation streak.  You figure that's got to end at some
point, but it might be hard to do that without your starting point guard
against a team that Greenfield has with the best Away rating.

One oddity worth noting:  Seven Overtimes is picking the Mountaineers by a
point, but lists the confidence that the home team will win as just 44
percent.  Hey, if you're predicting a team to win a game, shouldn't the
probability be at least 50 percent?  Or is his "confidence" percentage
some wacky non-statistical quantity?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      WVU     KU      Defensive Stats      WVU     KU
Points/Game         79.4    77.9     Opp Points/Game     67.4    65.1
Avg Score Margin   +12.0   +12.8     Opp Effective FG %  48.2    46.3
Assists/Game        14.4    18.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.8    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.8    37.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.9    25.2
Effective FG %      54.0    54.7     Blocks/Game          2.6     4.1
Off Rebound %       32.3    31.0     Steals/Game          7.4     9.5
FTA/FGA            0.401   0.239     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.6    15.7
Turnover %          15.7    15.1

My Stats Comparison        KU              WVU 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.73           +2.82    
inconsistency         10.77           11.92    
trend                 +0.82 ± 0.77    -1.04 ± 0.77
mental toughness      +0.18 ± 0.31    +0.11 ± 0.33
average total pts      142.93         146.86    

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Oklahoma State:

KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -7 OSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Emmitt Matthews Jr. (forward)
most points        Erik Stevenson (guard)
most rebounds      Jimmy Bell Jr. (forward)
most assists       Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most steals        Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Mohamed Wague (forward)
most turnovers     Tre Mitchell (forward)
most fouls         Mohamed Wague (forward)

Kedrian Johnson, their starting point guard and leader in assists and steals, is
out for the game due to concussion protocol, so take away his 9 points, 2 rebounds,
3 assists, 1 steal and 2 turnovers per game.  Guard Jose Perez is not eligible to
play this season.

                                                          13-1          10-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +2.86   76   73       60       #  4   #  8    # 31   # 42
Sagarin Predictor       +1.19   75   74       53.9     #  6   #  8    # 29   # 42 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +3.19   76   73                #  2   #  8    # 27   # 42 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.86   76   72                #  4   #  8    # 37   # 42
Sagarin Eigenvector     +3.25   76   72.5     62    
Massey                  +3.00   74   71       58       #  1   #  2    # 31   # 28
Pomeroy                 +1.27   70   68                #  5   # 10    # 20   # 39
Greenfield              +1.50   72   70.5              #  7   #  2    # 25   # 19
Dunkel                  -1.50   72   73                #  2           # 45
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +2.00   72   70                                          
Dolphin Predictive      -0.24   72   72       49.2     #  5   #  8    #  3   # 14
Real Time               -2.00   74   76       42.9     #  1   # 12    # 37   # 27 
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   72   73       56       #  7   #  9    # 23   # 28
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                -3.10                 41.8     # 13   #  9    # 19   # 18
Whitlock                -0.38                          #  7   #  5    # 12   # 27
Colley Matrix           +5.75                          #  1   #  7    # 42   # 29
NCAA NET                                               #  4           # 16 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents        -3.00         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 18
Pomeroy offense                                        # 13           # 27
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 34
Pomeroy tempo                                          #135           #144
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +0,98   73.5 72.2     53.0
scatter                  2.56    2.1  2.0      7.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #300 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +27.49    -2.49
HOME   #243 North Dakota State          82  59   +24.34    -1.34
NEUT   # 21 Duke                        69  64    +3.14    +1.86
HOME   #155 Southern Utah               82  76   +19.01   -13.01
NEUT   # 42 NC State                    80  74    +6.23    -0.23
NEUT   # 40 Wisconsin                   69  68    +6.18    -5.18
NEUT   #  2 Tennessee                   50  64    -3.00   -11.00
HOME   #268 Texas Southern              87  55   +25.61    +6.39
HOME   # 64 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.77   +15.23
AWAY   # 47 Missouri                    95  67    +3.45   +24.55
HOME   # 15 Indiana                     84  62    +4.95   +17.05
HOME   #146 Harvard                     68  54   +18.65    -4.65
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma State              69  67    +7.30    -5.30
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                  75  72    +0.61    +2.39
AWAY   # 29 West Virginia                         +1.18             0.541
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma                              +9.23             0.814
HOME   # 31 Iowa State                            +7.92             0.771
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          +2.37             0.593
HOME   # 22 TCU                                   +6.54             0.696
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                -1.38             0.458
AWAY   # 25 Kentucky                              +0.85             0.531
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          +8.43             0.800
AWAY   # 31 Iowa State                            +1.86             0.569
HOME   #  8 Texas                                 +3.87             0.638
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma                              +3.17             0.621
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma State                        +1.24             0.553
HOME   # 14 Baylor                                +4.68             0.639
AWAY   # 22 TCU                                   +0.48             0.515
HOME   # 29 West Virginia                         +7.24             0.738
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            +6.67             0.728
AWAY   #  8 Texas                                 -2.19             0.421

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #248 Mount St. Mary's            76  58   +20.36    -2.36
AWAY   # 73 Pittsburgh                  81  56    +1.88   +23.12
HOME   #274 Morehead State              75  57   +21.59    -3.59
HOME   #158 Pennsylvania                92  58   +14.89   +19.11
NEUT   # 10 Purdue                      68  80    -3.09    -8.91
NEUT   #237 Portland State              89  71   +16.53    +1.47
NEUT   # 46 Florida                     84  55    +2.25   +26.75
AWAY   # 23 Xavier-Ohio                 74  84    -3.71    -6.29
HOME   #211 Navy                        85  64   +18.10    +2.90
HOME   # 55 UAB                         81  70    +5.98    +5.02
HOME   #177 Buffalo                     96  78   +16.02    +1.98
HOME   #287 Stony Brook-NY              75  64   +22.52   -11.52
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                76  82    -1.84    -4.16
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma State              60  67    -2.97    -4.03
HOME   #  6 Kansas                                -1.18             0.459
HOME   # 14 Baylor                                +0.47             0.514
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma                              -1.04             0.462
HOME   # 22 TCU                                   +2.33             0.570
HOME   #  8 Texas                                 -0.34             0.488
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            -3.60             0.378
HOME   # 33 Auburn                                +3.99             0.636
AWAY   # 22 TCU                                   -3.73             0.389
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma                              +5.02             0.677
HOME   # 31 Iowa State                            +3.71             0.629
AWAY   #  8 Texas                                 -6.40             0.289
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                -5.59             0.341
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            +2.46             0.584
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma State                        +3.09             0.621
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                                -7.24             0.262
AWAY   # 31 Iowa State                            -2.35             0.417
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          +4.22             0.654