Big 12 projection, Round 2

Battle of unbeatens on Saturday (TCU and Iowa State); one will remain undefeated
while the other will pick up their first conference loss, with third place in the
projected standings the winner's prize.  Baylor will try to avoid falling out of
contention with a second home loss by handing Kansas State their first lost.  A
second road win would be big for Kansas.  West Virginia has slid all the way from
4th to 9th by opening with two road games and two lossses (they always do that,
combining two road games into one trip before classes start).

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game   Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  7  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0  2  0  @WVU Sat   KU  70  WVU 68
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5  1  1  @OSU Sat   UT  68  OSU 68
# 30  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  2  0   ISU Sat   TCU 65  ISU 61
# 33  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1  2  0  @TCU Sat
# 10  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  0  2   KSU Sat   BU  75  KSU 71
# 48  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  2  0  @BU  Sat
# 32  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  1  1   UT  Sat
# 23  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  0  2   OU  Sat   TTU 65  OU  62
# 26  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  0  2   KU  Sat
# 39  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  0  2  @TT  Sat

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 2, quite a turnaround from his horrible performance
in Round 1.  Real Time pulled up the rear.  Seven Overtimes has the season lead, while Dunkel was so bad
on Saturday that he's still pulling up the rear for the season.

Error
------------------------------------------1-----------------------------1---------------------
SagO SagP SagG SagR SagE Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
 4.2  4.4  5.9  3.4  9.6  4.0  4.9  4.0  0.5  4.0  5.7  9.8  7.2  3.2 10.0  9.0  7.6  3.4  0.6 OSU-WVU
 1.1  2.8  0.7  0.9  8.3  4.0  0.1  0.5  4.0  0.5  4.0  6.5  1.9  5.2  2.0  6.0  2.2  3.8  4.0 KU-TT
21.3 22.2 21.8 20.4 14.5 20.0 22.9 22.0 17.0 22.0 20.7 15.6 18.8 25.1 19.0 29.0 21.6 23.2 23.7 UT-KSU
 4.8  6.9  5.5  3.3  2.3  7.0  5.9  6.0  4.5  6.5  7.6  4.1  6.2  8.6  0.0  6.0  7.3  7.9  3.6 BU-TCU
 5.3  5.2  6.1  4.8  8.3  8.0  6.6  6.5  1.5  7.0  4.8  4.4  5.4  5.7  4.0  1.0  4.1  6.2 11.2 OU-ISU

36.7 41.5 40.0 32.8 43.0 43.0 40.4 39.0 27.5 40.0 42.8 40.4 39.5 47.8 35.0 51.0 42.8 44.5 43.1 sum
35.8 36.5 35.4 36.1 39.9 40.0 35.4 32.5 59.0 32.0 32.5 30.9 31.7 28.8 18.0 36.0 40.5 33.5 38.7 previous
72.5 78.0 75.4 68.9 82.9 83.0 75.8 71.5 86.5 72.0 75.3 71.3 71.2 76.6 53.0 87.0 83.3 78.0 81.8 cumulat
 7.2  7.8  7.5  6.9  8.3  8.3  7.6  7.2  8.6  7.2  7.5  7.1  7.1  7.7  5.3  8.7  8.3  7.8  8.2 per game

There was just one projected road wins for Round 2, but four actually happened.  Two road
wins are projected for Round 3, but one of them is a virtual tie, while the other is just
a one-possession affair.

Road wins ( 5 out of 10)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Iowa State     OU                          0 Iowa State                                 +1 ISU
1 Kansas         TTU                         0 Kansas                                     +1 KU 
1 Kansas State   UT                          0 Kansas State                               +1 KSU
1 TCU            BU                          0 Oklahoma State                             +1 TCU
1 Texas          OU                          0 TCU                                         0 UT 
0 Baylor                                     0 West Virginia                               0 OSU
0 Oklahoma                                   1 Baylor         TCU                          0 WVU
0 Oklahoma State                             1 Texas          KSU                         -1 BU          
0 Texas Tech                                 1 Texas Tech     KU                          -1 TTU
0 West Virginia                              2 Oklahoma       UT  ISU                     -2 OU 

Amazing that the Big 12 is the best conference, and nine out of ten teams are underrated,
with TCU coming oh so close to also being underrated.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +3.29    Oklahoma State    7.55
West Virginia   +2.86    Kansas State      9.12
Iowa State      +2.53    Oklahoma          9.85
Kansas          +1.72    Iowa State       10.61
Texas Tech      +1.29    Kansas           10.89
Oklahoma        +1.19    Texas            10.95
Texas           +1.13    Texas Tech       11.32
Baylor          +0.33    West Virginia    12.11
Oklahoma State  +0.17    TCU              14.26
TCU             -0.06    Baylor           15.20

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +2.35 +/- 0.71    Oklahoma        +0.46 +/- 0.28
Kansas          +0.87 +/- 0.71    TCU             +0.35 +/- 0.29
Oklahoma State  +0.83 +/- 0.46    Kansas          +0.21 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma        +0.82 +/- 0.64    West Virginia   +0.13 +/- 0.34
Kansas State    +0.48 +/- 0.61    Oklahoma State  -0.06 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech      +0.38 +/- 0.77    Kansas State    -0.12 +/- 0.26
Iowa State      -0.39 +/- 0.81    Iowa State      -0.27 +/- 0.22
West Virginia   -1.06 +/- 0.78    Texas           -0.32 +/- 0.25
Texas           -1.28 +/- 0.66    Baylor          -0.37 +/- 0.32
Baylor          -1.79 +/- 0.91    Texas Tech      -0.45 +/- 0.24

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           82.86   Iowa State      58.46   Texas           150.64   Texas           +15.07
Baylor          79.00   Oklahoma        62.36   Baylor          147.71   TCU             +13.71
West Virginia   79.00   Oklahoma State  62.36   West Virginia   146.86   Texas Tech      +13.64
Texas Tech      78.36   TCU             64.07   Kansas State    143.43   Kansas State    +12.14
TCU             77.79   Texas Tech      64.71   Texas Tech      143.07   Iowa State      +11.38
Kansas State    77.79   Kansas State    65.64   Kansas          142.93   West Virginia   +11.14
Kansas          77.00   Kansas          65.93   TCU             141.86   Kansas          +11.07
Oklahoma State  70.57   Texas           67.79   Oklahoma State  132.93   Baylor          +10.29
Iowa State      69.85   West Virginia   67.86   Oklahoma        129.86   Oklahoma State   +8.21
Oklahoma        67.50   Baylor          68.71   Iowa State      128.31   Oklahoma         +5.14

Baylor has now joined the Top 100 in strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          78.94 (  8)
Oklahoma        76.57 ( 33)
West Virginia   76.42 ( 38)
Oklahoma State  75.70 ( 62)
Baylor          75.01 ( 85)
Iowa State      74.18 (112)
Kansas State    73.46 (140)
Texas           72.26 (206)
Texas Tech      70.37 (289)
TCU             69.68 (314)

Arrgghh!!  I forgot to update the Sagarin Predictor rankings:

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game   Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  6  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0  2  0  @WVU Sat   KU  70  WVU 68
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5  1  1  @OSU Sat   UT  68  OSU 68
# 23  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  2  0   ISU Sat   TCU 65  ISU 61
# 32  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1  2  0  @TCU Sat                 
# 14  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  0  2   KSU Sat   BU  75  KSU 71
# 35  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  2  0  @BU  Sat                 
# 29  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  1  1   UT  Sat                 
# 24  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  0  2   OU  Sat   TTU 65  OU  62
# 30  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  0  2   KU  Sat                 
# 41  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  0  2  @TT  Sat