predictions for Indiana game

I hate these early tips, especially when the goal is to post these summaries
at least a couple hours in advance of tip.  I wish I could completely prepare
it the evening before and hit the sack, but Sagarin has developed a nasty
tendency to post his predictions for the day not too far in advance of the
first games (it's now less than two hours to tipoff, and he STILL hasn't posted
his predictions for the day).  So do I stay up late and wait and wait and wait
for Sagarin, or do I get up extra early (before sunrise) just to give folks a
chance to digest the predictions before tipoff?  Either way, it's going to be
an insufficient night of sleep.

The last time Kansas played Indiana, I was in attendance.  The game was just
about a mile from where I live.  It was the season opener, the Armed Forces
Classic.  But rather than being held on one of the many military bases on Oahu,
they decided to play the game in the Stan Sheriff Center on the University of
Hawaii campus and make the game open to the public.  It was a good crowd, but
Kansas lost in overtime, 99 to 103.

This time around, Kansas has the home court advantage, and the numbers suggest
it should be a competitive game.  Unlike Missouri, Indiana *has* been tested,
having played four tournament-level opponents, but the Hoosiers have also
played five cupcakes from the bottom tier.  And against the two toughest
opponents, Indiana played below expectation by double digits, one on the road
and the other on a neutral court, losing both contests.  Kansas will be their
toughest test to date.

Real Time, with its enormous home court advantage, is picking the Jayhawks by
a whopping 17 points.  Colley's ratings, after scaling to points, also indicate
a double-digit margin for Kansas.  Dunkel, having been burned with his predicted
loss to Missouri, also has the Jayhawks by double digits, and Sagarin's eigenvector
analysis is checking in just a hair under Dunkel, but still double digits.  Everyone
else is picking Kansas, though by single digits.  The pessimist is the BPI, which
has Kansas winning by only 2.6 points.

Both Kansas and Indiana have played games totaling 145 points on average, which
is a bit of a surprise given that Indiana managed a mere 48 points against
Rutgers, who has the #3 defense according to Pomeroy.  Their second-lowest
scoring game, 75 points, came against Arizona, who has the #64 defense, again
according to Pomeroy.  How will they do against the #10 defense?

Both teams are underrated, have virtually identical inconsistencies, but
Kansas has a positive trend and a positive mental toughness rating, while
Indiana's are both negative.  The trends are supposedly statistically
significant, Kansas having played three consecutive above-expectation games,
while Indiana started the season with two above-expectation performances,
but two of their last three have been below expectation by double digits,
which explains the trends.  Still, those plus-or-minus values on the trends
are mighty large compared to what I'm accustomed to seeing.

The Big 12 and the Big Ten are Sagarin's top two conferences in college
basketball, virtually neck and neck.  This game could help to put some
separation between the two conferences.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      IU      KU      Defensive Stats      IU      KU
Points/Game         81.4    79.4     Opp Points/Game     63.8    65.6
Avg Score Margin   +17.6   +13.8     Opp Effective FG %  44.2    44.8
Assists/Game        17.7    18.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.1    10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.2    38.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.3    25.9
Effective FG %      56.9    54.4     Blocks/Game          5.6     4.0
Off Rebound %       27.6    30.8     Steals/Game          7.2     9.0
FTA/FGA            0.293   0.287     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.2    16.2
Turnover %          14.2    15.0

My Stats Comparison        KU              IU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.47           +2.26    
inconsistency         11.17           11.26    
trend                 +2.16 ± 1.06    -2.34 ± 1.02
mental toughness      +0.08 ± 0.36    -0.48 ± 0.24
average total pts      145.00         145.20    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Trayce Jackson-Davis (forward)
most points        Trayce Jackson-Davis (forward)
most rebounds      Trayce Jackson-Davis (forward)
most assists       Xavier Johnson (guard)
most steals        Xavier Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Trayce Jackson-Davis (forward)
most turnovers     Xavier Johnson (guard)
most fouls         Malik Reneau (forward)

Guard Jalen Hood-Schifino sat out the last two games with a back injury; his status
for the Kansas game is unclear.  He's second on the team in minutes played per game,
and fifth in points scored per game.  Guard Anthony Leal is out with an ankle injury,
but he's spent most of his time on the bench, so no big loss there.  The key to this
game would seem to be Jackson-Davis.  Put Marcus Garrett on him, and we'll be fine.
Oh wait...

                                                           9-1           8-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Indiana
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.14   77   71       67       #  5   # 34    # 15   #148
Sagarin Predictor       +3.52   76   72       62.3     #  9   # 34    # 13   #148 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +6.64   77   71                #  4   # 34    # 15   #148 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.06   76   71                #  5   # 34    # 15   #148
Sagarin Eigenvector    +10.07   79   69       80    
Massey                  +8.00   75   67       74       #  3   #  8    # 25   # 40
Pomeroy                 +5.16   71   66                #  8   # 39    # 16   #170
Greenfield              +5.50   74   68.5              # 10   #  5    # 11   # 13
Dunkel                 +10.50   79   69                #  3           # 18
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.00   74   68                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +7.07   75   68       72.8     #  8   #  5    # 16   # 19
Real Time              +17.00   87   70       88.4     #  4   #196    # 24   #261 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   76   69       73       # 19   # 17    # 50   #102
DPPI                    +4.60   75   70       63.4     #  9   # 32    # 14   #124 
ESPN BPI                +2.60                 59.7     # 16   # 30    #  8   # 60
Whitlock                +8.10                          #  7   # 15    # 28   # 76
Colley Matrix          +11.36                          #  5   # 19    # 50   #189
NCAA NET                                               #  7           # 16 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 19
Pomeroy offense                                        # 14           # 24
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 22
Pomeroy tempo                                          #128           #153
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.25   76.5 69.3     71.2
scatter                  3.47    3.7  1.7      9.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #306 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +28.05    -3.05
HOME   #258 North Dakota State          82  59   +24.80    -1.80
NEUT   # 10 Duke                        69  64    +0.39    +4.61
HOME   #157 Southern Utah               82  76   +19.48   -13.48
NEUT   # 44 NC State                    80  74    +5.80    +0.20
NEUT   # 36 Wisconsin                   69  68    +5.26    -4.26
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.84   -12.16
HOME   #255 Texas Southern              87  55   +24.65    +7.35
HOME   # 53 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.11   +15.89
AWAY   # 74 Missouri                    95  67    +6.63   +21.37
HOME   # 13 Indiana                               +3.52             0.623
HOME   #149 Harvard                              +18.77             0.955
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State                        +8.44             0.778
AWAY   # 46 Texas Tech                            +3.01             0.609
AWAY   # 18 West Virginia                         -1.21             0.451
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma                              +8.88             0.787
HOME   # 38 Iowa State                            +8.36             0.762
AWAY   # 57 Kansas State                          +4.79             0.686
HOME   # 70 TCU                                  +11.95             0.866
AWAY   #  7 Baylor                                -3.35             0.377
AWAY   # 15 Kentucky                              -2.34             0.416
HOME   # 57 Kansas State                         +10.77             0.862
AWAY   # 38 Iowa State                            +2.38             0.581
HOME   # 12 Texas                                 +3.48             0.637
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma                              +2.90             0.603
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State                        +2.46             0.588
HOME   #  7 Baylor                                +2.63             0.597
AWAY   # 70 TCU                                   +5.97             0.710
HOME   # 18 West Virginia                         +4.77             0.688
HOME   # 46 Texas Tech                            +8.99             0.797
AWAY   # 12 Texas                                 -2.50             0.400

Here is Indiana's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #256 Morehead State              88  53   +24.18   +10.82
HOME   #350 Bethune-Cookman            101  49   +32.75   +19.25
AWAY   # 24 Xavier-Ohio                 81  79    -0.54    +2.54
NEUT   #304 Miami-Ohio                  86  56   +24.49    +5.51
HOME   #318 Little Rock                 87  68   +28.55    -9.55
HOME   #308 Jackson State               90  51   +28.00   +11.00
HOME   # 21 North Carolina              77  65    +4.86    +7.14
AWAY   # 23 Rutgers                     48  63    -0.55   -14.45
HOME   # 76 Nebraska                    81  65   +12.20    +3.80
NEUT   #  8 Arizona                     75  89    -0.54   -13.46
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                                -3.52             0.377