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Big 12 projection, Round 8

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3 years 6 months ago #2785 by asteroid
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Iowa State's home win over Kansas is arguably better than Baylor's road win over a
substantially weaker Oklahoma State opponent, so the Cyclones leapfrogged the Bears
in the projected standings.  No other changes.  Oklahoma now has a one-game lead
over West Virginia and a two-game lead over Kansas.  No conference games this weekend,
as we take a break for the Big 12/SEC Challenge.  The Big 12 is favored in six of
the ten games.  The schedulers did a pretty good job of avoiding bad matchups with
lopsided predictions.  Can the Big 12 make it a clean sweep?

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94    6  2  @LSU (Sa)   OU  by  8.3
#  3  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18    6  2  @Fla (Sa)   WV  by  2.1
#  9  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95    5  3   UK  (Sa)   KU  by  6.0
# 22  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09    5  3  @A&M (Sa)   A&M by  4.8
# 27  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97    6  2   Ga  (Sa)   BU  by 10.0
# 36  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05    5  3   Van (Sa)   Van by  0.3
# 42  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47    2  6   Mis (Sa)   KSU by  9.4
# 54  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77    2  6  @Ark (Sa)   Ark by  4.0
# 73  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27    2  6  @Aub (Sa)   OSU by  2.6
#129  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31    1  7   Ten (Sa)   Ten by  1.4

Real Time took honors for best prognostications in Round 8, with yours truly's Big 12 home
court adjustment taking a close second (within a fraction of a point).  DPPI came in third.
Greenfield retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           1          1+                       1     1           +     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
KU  over ISU     0.8  -3.0  -2.9  -1.0  -4.0  -1.5  -3.0   0.0  -0.6  -3.7  -2.0  -1.6   1.2  -0.8  -1.7  -1.5    -13    13.8  10.0  10.1  12.0   9.0  11.5  10.0  13.0  12.4   9.3  11.0  11.4  14.2  12.2  11.3  11.5
BU  over OSU     2.6   2.0   1.7   4.0  -2.0   2.5  -1.0   1.6   2.8   1.4   2.0   3.7   2.9   0.9  -0.2   1.2      4     1.4   2.0   2.3   0.0   6.0   1.5   5.0   2.4   1.2   2.6   2.0   0.3   1.1   3.1   4.2   2.8
WV  over KSU    11.8  10.0   8.7  10.5   8.5  10.5  14.0  10.6   9.9   9.0   6.0  11.3  13.8  15.7  10.0  14.9     15     3.2   5.0   6.3   4.5   6.5   4.5   1.0   4.4   5.1   6.0   9.0   3.7   1.2   0.7   5.0   0.1
OU  over TT     12.7  14.0  13.1  14.0  12.0  14.0  16.0  11.5  12.5  11.5   7.0  13.0  13.3  15.3  10.4  14.7     24    11.3  10.0  10.9  10.0  12.0  10.0   8.0  12.5  11.5  12.5  17.0  11.0  10.7   8.7  13.6   9.3
UT  over TCU    12.9  13.0  11.8  11.0  14.5  11.0  19.0  12.4  11.5  11.2  12.0  12.5  13.4  15.3  17.3  12.7     17     4.1   4.0   5.2   6.0   2.5   6.0   2.0   4.6   5.5   5.8   5.0   4.5   3.6   1.7   0.3   4.3

total this round                                                                                                         33.8  31.0  34.8  32.5  36.0  33.5  26.0  36.9  35.7  36.2  44.0  30.9  30.8  26.4  34.4  28.0
previous total                                                                                                          255.0 262.0 252.1 246.5 298.5 250.0 323.0 257.8 263.3 261.0 289.0 262.8 276.4 279.5 293.9 271.7
cumulative                                                                                                              288.8 293.0 286.9 279.0 334.5 283.5 349.0 294.7 299.0 297.2 333.0 293.7 307.2 305.9 328.3 299.7
per game (total of 40)                                                                                                    7.2   7.3   7.2   7.0   8.4   7.1   8.7   7.4   7.5   7.4   8.3   7.3   7.7   7.6   8.2   7.5

Two road wins were projected for Round 8, both of them expected to be tight contests.
Baylor survived the test in Stillwater, something Kansas couldn't do, and Kansas did
not survive the test in Ames.  But we're still close to the all-time one-in-three
average.  Round 9 is delayed to next week to allow for the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

Road wins (13 out of 40)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
3 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU         0 Kansas                                 +2 Baylor        
3 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT          0 Oklahoma                               +2 Oklahoma      
2 Iowa State      KSU TCU             0 Texas                                  +2 West Virginia 
2 Oklahoma        OSU BU              1 Baylor          OU                     +1 Iowa State    
1 Kansas          TT                  1 Iowa State      BU                     +1 Kansas        
1 Texas           WV                  1 West Virginia   UT                     +1 Texas         
1 Texas Tech      TCU                 2 Kansas State    WV  ISU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Kansas State                        2 Oklahoma State  OU  BU                 -2 Oklahoma State
0 Oklahoma State                      3 TCU             WV  TT  ISU            -2 Texas Tech    
0 TCU                                 3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV             -3 TCU           

This is distressing:  Kansas has plummeted to the bottom of the conference in the trend
statistic.  The Jayhawks are also the conference's most inconsistent team.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.82    Texas Tech        6.20    Oklahoma State  +0.36 +/- 0.43    Iowa State      +0.32 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma        +1.23    Oklahoma          7.73    Texas           +0.30 +/- 0.43    Oklahoma State  +0.22 +/- 0.21
Kansas          +0.62    Kansas State      7.78    Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.31    Kansas State    +0.06 +/- 0.14
Iowa State      +0.42    Iowa State        8.93    Iowa State      +0.06 +/- 0.36    Oklahoma        +0.01 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      +0.40    TCU               9.49    Texas Tech      +0.02 +/- 0.27    TCU             -0.05 +/- 0.16
Baylor          +0.18    West Virginia    10.23    Oklahoma        -0.16 +/- 0.33    Baylor          -0.14 +/- 0.20
Texas           +0.07    Texas            10.84    TCU             -0.25 +/- 0.37    Texas           -0.17 +/- 0.24
Kansas State    -0.05    Oklahoma State   11.04    Baylor          -0.26 +/- 0.48    Kansas          -0.22 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  -0.13    Baylor           11.32    West Virginia   -0.56 +/- 0.39    Texas Tech      -0.24 +/- 0.13
TCU             -0.40    Kansas           11.36    Kansas          -0.73 +/- 0.46    West Virginia   -0.41 +/- 0.19

Iowa State's strength of schedule stands to benefit the most from the Big 12/SEC Challenge
by virtue of playing the SEC's strongest team on the road.  Kansas gets the SEC's second
strongest team, but at home.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Oklahoma        85.26    West Virginia   64.05    Iowa State      158.00    West Virginia   +17.00    Oklahoma        79.82 ( 2)
Iowa State      83.70    Oklahoma State  67.45    Oklahoma        157.16    Oklahoma        +13.37    Texas           79.50 ( 4)
West Virginia   81.05    Kansas State    67.55    Kansas          150.74    Kansas          +11.26    Kansas          79.31 ( 5)
Kansas          81.00    Texas           68.30    Baylor          146.11    Iowa State       +9.40    Iowa State      78.76 (10)
Baylor          77.63    Baylor          68.47    West Virginia   145.10    Baylor           +9.16    Texas Tech      77.96 (17)
Texas Tech      72.74    TCU             69.15    Texas Tech      142.74    Kansas State     +4.55    Kansas State    77.67 (20)
Texas           72.65    Kansas          69.74    Texas           140.95    Texas            +4.35    West Virginia   76.29 (45)
Kansas State    72.10    Texas Tech      70.00    Kansas State    139.65    Oklahoma State   +2.85    Baylor          76.10 (48)
Oklahoma State  70.30    Oklahoma        71.89    Oklahoma State  137.75    Texas Tech       +2.74    TCU             75.83 (51)
TCU             67.65    Iowa State      74.30    TCU             136.80    TCU              -1.50    Oklahoma State  75.76 (54)
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The following user(s) said Thank You: JhawkMom, ElectricHawk

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