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predictions for Seton Hall game

  • asteroid
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1 month 3 weeks ago #29849 by asteroid
Perhaps it was the best game of the season for the Jayhawks; certainly it was
the most points above expectation of the eight games played so far.  Was it one
of those five "better than you are" games?  Perhaps.  Not quite one standard
deviation above normal if one uses the 11 point national average, but a bit
more than one standard deviation for the Jayhawks' current inconsistency of
8 points, and just about bang on the median inconsistency for Big 12 teams last
season.  And it was accomplished with some key players unavailable.  That's
encouraging.

Either Seton Hall has already played three "worse-than-you-are" and two
"better-than-you-are" games out of seven total, or the Pirates are terribly
inconsistent.  The greater the inconsistency, the harder it is to predict a
margin, because we don't know which team is going to show up to play.  But
twice they've shown that they can play above expectation by enough to overcome
the predicted margins.

Sagarin's peculiar eigenvector analysis is the most optimistic at 16 points in
favor of Kansas, while Sagarin's Recent Games method is most pessimistic at just
7 points.  That's not a surprise, as the most recent games includes the loss to
Tennessee and the squeaker over Wisconsin.  The average, however, is 10.7 points,
with a scatter of 2.6 points, for a roughly 80 percent probability of winning
the game.

The home team has won all four of the Big East Battle games played so far,
with the two conferences splitting.  The sheer size of Baylor's loss is
eyebrow-raising, however.  Anyway, let's keep the winning streak for the home
team alive at Allen Field House this evening.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      SH      KU      Defensive Stats      SH      KU
Points/Game         71.0    76.0     Opp Points/Game     61.3    65.5
Avg Score Margin    +9.7   +10.5     Opp Effective FG %  42.7    44.4
Assists/Game        12.6    18.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.9    10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.7    39.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.6    26.1
Effective FG %      48.9    52.1     Blocks/Game          4.0     4.5
Off Rebound %       31.2    30.3     Steals/Game          8.0     7.8
FTA/FGA            0.512   0.275     Personal Fouls/Gm   20.3    15.1
Turnover %          19.2    15.0

My Stats Comparison        KU          Seton Hall
===================   =============   ============
performance           -1.50           +0.83    
inconsistency          8.04           15.25    
trend                  0.00 ± 1.34    -3.57 ± 2.72
mental toughness      -0.07 ± 0.27    -0.80 ± 0.51
average total pts      141.50         132.29    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Al-Amir Dawes (guard)
most points        Al-Amir Dawes (guard)
most rebounds      Tyrese Samuel (forward)
most assists       Kadary Richmond (guard)
most steals        Kadary Richmond (guard)
most blocks        Kenechukwu Ndefo (forward)
most turnovers     Al-Amir Dawes (guard)
most fouls         Tray Jackson (forward)

Guard Dre Davis did not play in the previous game due to a knee injury, and
it is unclear whether he will be available for today's game.  He is fifth in
minutes played per game and second in points scored per game, so his availability
does matter a fair bit.

                                                           7-1           4-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Steon Hall
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +8.93   72   63       77       # 19   # 97    # 57   #147
Sagarin Predictor       +8.51   72   63       75.7     # 19   # 97    # 44   #147 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +12.48   74   61                # 09   # 97    # 70   #147 
Sagarin Recent Games    +7.16   71   64                # 20   # 97    # 54   #147
Sagarin Eigenvector    +16.00   75   59       89    
Massey                  +9.00   74   65       78       #  4   #  8    # 67   # 44
Pomeroy                 +8.57   69   61                # 17   # 94    # 57   #143
Greenfield              +8.50   72.5 64                # 23   # 16    # 41   # 40
Dunkel                 +12.00   70   58                #  2           # 43
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.50   72   64                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +8.17   72   64       76.3     # 24   # 19    # 44   # 50
Real Time              +10.00   80   70       79.9     #  4   #166    # 24   #151 
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   74   63       79       # 41   # 34    # 85   # 58
DPPI                   +15.00   74   59       70.4     # 45   # 88    # 64   # 45 
ESPN BPI               +12.70                 89.3     # 23   # 54    # 74   #141
Whitlock        ***    +11.21                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix          +13.78                          # 18   # 51    #107   # 82
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       # 15           # 57
Pomeroy offense                                        # 33           # 91
Pomeroy defense                                        # 13           # 36
Pomeroy tempo                                          #144           #136
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +10.68   73.0 62.7     79.4
scatter                  2.62    2.6  3.1      6.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 21-10
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #301 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +25.52    -0.52
HOME   #274 North Dakota State          82  59   +24.23    -1.23
NEUT   # 11 Duke                        69  64    -1.44    +6.44
HOME   #185 Southern Utah               82  76   +19.15   -13.15
NEUT   # 34 NC State                    80  74    +3.13    +2.87
NEUT   # 41 Wisconsin                   69  68    +4.50    -3.50
NEUT   #  8 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.85   -12.15
HOME   #247 Texas Southern              87  55   +22.74    +9.26
HOME   # 44 Seton Hall                            +8.51             0.757
AWAY   # 51 Missouri                              +1.87             0.575
HOME   #  4 Indiana                               +0.36             0.515
HOME   #157 Harvard                              +17.38             0.964
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma State                        +8.57             0.816
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                            -1.30             0.445
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         -4.12             0.305
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                              +6.61             0.752
HOME   # 37 Iowa State                            +6.87             0.747
AWAY   # 64 Kansas State                          +2.97             0.641
HOME   # 67 TCU                                  +10.21             0.864
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                                -4.10             0.327
AWAY   # 12 Kentucky                              -4.54             0.317
HOME   # 64 Kansas State                          +9.89             0.886
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                            -0.05             0.498
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +1.10             0.553
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                              -0.31             0.487
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma State                        +1.65             0.569
HOME   # 16 Baylor                                +2.82             0.621
AWAY   # 67 TCU                                   +3.29             0.638
HOME   # 15 West Virginia                         +2.80             0.636
HOME   # 30 Texas Tech                            +5.62             0.726
AWAY   #  6 Texas                                 -5.82             0.240

Here is Seton Hall's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #333 Monmouth-NJ                 79  52   +23.63    +3.37
HOME   #242 Saint Peter's               80  44   +17.24   +18.76
HOME   # 17 Iowa                        67  83    -1.93   -14.07
HOME   #237 Wagner                      82  44   +16.77   +21.23
NEUT   # 31 Memphis                     70  69    -2.52    +3.52
NEUT   # 35 Oklahoma                    64  77    -1.90   -11.10
NEUT   #190 Siena                       55  60   +10.87   -15.87
AWAY   # 19 Kansas                                -8.51             0.243
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, newtonhawk, jaythawk1

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