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predictions for Texas Southern game

  • asteroid
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1 month 4 weeks ago #29834 by asteroid
"In a 30-game season, you'll play 5 games better than you are and 5 games worse
than you are.  The other 20 games are who you are."
   --Fran Fraschilla

The wording may not be exact, but the gist of it is there.  That's basically a
layman's way of saying that in the Gaussian or "normal" distribution of
statistics, 68 percent of your results are within 1 standard deviation of the
average, 16 percent of your results are more than 1 standard deviation above
the average, and 16 percent of your results are more than 1 standard deviation
below the average.  The standard deviation is what I've been calling the
"inconsistency".  Currently, the inconsistency for Kansas is nearly 7 points,
but that's based on a fairly small sample of games.  The national average for
inconsistency is closer to 11 points.  Last season, the median inconsistency
for the ten Big 12 teams was a bit over 10 points.  Based on the current
Sagarin Predictor rating for Kansas, the Jayhawks have already played 2 games
worse than they are (Southern Utah and Tennessee) and 0 games better than they
are.  The optimist will say that it's probably better to get those worse-than-
you-are games out of the way during the non-conference portion of the schedule,
and we're really underrated as a result of those two games.  The pessimist will
say that it's too early in the season to have already played 2 worse-than-you-are
games, that the Jayhawks are overrated, and it's going to be an awful season.
Indeed, the current projection is for a 20-11 record, marginal for an at-large
bid to the Big Dance.  That's because of a monster conference schedule.

Texas Southern has already played their own monster schedule.  All top-tier
opponents.  (With 363 teams in Division I, three tiers of teams would have
121 teams each, so Samford barely qualifies as a top-tier opponent.)  They
even managed to beat a 6-1 Arizona State squad that Sagarin has ranked #41.
Not to be taken lightly.  But future Big 12 conference member Houston handled
the Tigers by 35, while Texas Tech handled them by 24, so the Jayhawks should
have an easy time of it.  Or it could be like the football team, which was
cruising until injuries to Hishaw, Daniels, Bryant, and others started piling
up.  Cam Martin is still dealing with that shoulder separation, Cuffe is out
for a while with the knee injury, Pettiford has a hamstring issue, Adams has
some mental block involving free throws, and Harris has suddenly become foul
prone.  The bench is getting mighty short.  At least Clemence is back, and
he's not wearing a mask to protect his nose, so perhaps the injury wasn't
as bad as originally thought.

But the prognosticators all have the margin between 19 and 24.5 points, with
an average of 22.6 points.  At least we should score more than 50 points this
tme around.  But it could be interesting.  Would hate to see a repeat of the
Southern Utah game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TexS     KU      Defensive Stats     TexS     KU
Points/Game         61.3    74.4     Opp Points/Game     78.4    67.0
Avg Score Margin   -17.1    +7.4     Opp Effective FG %  53.3    44.1
Assists/Game         8.4    17.6     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.4    10.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.4    40.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.0    27.0
Effective FG %      41.4    50.3     Blocks/Game          2.7     4.7
Off Rebound %       27.2    29.7     Steals/Game          6.6     7.6
FTA/FGA            0.287   0.258     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.7    15.6
Turnover %          18.0    15.1

So, Texas Southern is better than Kansas in just one of the statistics
shown:  free throw attempts per field goal attempts.

My Stats Comparison        KU         Texas South.
===================   =============   ============
performance           -2.60           -2.05    
inconsistency          6.94            7.85    
trend                 -1.32 ± 1.31    -0.75 ± 1.59
mental toughness      +0.07 ± 0.25    -0.09 ± 0.50
average total pts      141.43         139.71    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       John Walker III (forward)
most points        Davon Barnes (forward)
most rebounds      Joirdon Karl Nicholas (forward)
most assists       PJ Henry (guard)
most steals        PJ Henry (guard)
most blocks        John Walker III (forward)
most turnovers     Davon Barnes (forward)
most fouls         OZytarious Mortie (guard)

                                                           6-1           1-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Texas South.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +20.74   82   62       93       # 24   # 39    #245   #  2
Sagarin Predictor      +21.32   83   61       99.8     # 23   # 39    #236   #  2 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +23.82   84   60                # 10   # 39    #243   #  2 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.25   82   62                # 29   # 39    #253   #  2
Sagarin Eigenvector    +24.49   84   60       95    
Massey                 +22.00   82   60       96       #  4   #  7    #235   #  4
Pomeroy                +22.17   77   55                # 18   # 50    #242   #  4
Greenfield             +24.00   82   58                # 28   #  8    #252   # 21
Dunkel                 +26.50   80   54                #  2           #261
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +23.00   80.5 57.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +21.51   82   61       96.6     # 29   # 19    #250   # 29
Real Time              +23.00   86   63       87.7     #  5   #158    #253   #  9 
Seven Overtimes        +24.00   87   53       92       # 39   # 17    #358   # 37
DPPI                   +19.50   81.5 62       98.2     # 49   # 44    #248   #  1 
ESPN BPI               +21.00                 95.8     # 26   # 27    #287   #  2
Whitlock        ***    +24.48                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix          +24.09                          # 15   # 42    #262   #  4
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  9           #239
Pomeroy offense                                        # 38           #305
Pomeroy defense                                        # 13           #176
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 95           #120
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +22.64   82.4 59.2     94.9
scatter                  1.94    2.5  3.2      3.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 20-11
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #310 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +26.17    -1.17
HOME   #276 North Dakota State          82  59   +23.77    -0.77
NEUT   # 17 Duke                        69  64    -0.92    +5.92
HOME   #183 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.92   -11.92
NEUT   # 33 NC State                    80  74    +2.19    +3.81
NEUT   # 39 Wisconsin                   69  68    +3.38    -2.38
NEUT   #  8 Tennessee                   50  64    -2.28   -11.72
HOME   #236 Texas Southern                       +21.32             0.998
HOME   # 41 Seton Hall                            +7.24             0.784
AWAY   # 63 Missouri                              +2.89             0.620
HOME   #  6 Indiana                               +0.21             0.509
HOME   #179 Harvard                              +17.87             0.974
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +7.90             0.807
AWAY   # 27 Texas Tech                            -2.17             0.404
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia                         -4.22             0.288
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                              +5.61             0.727
HOME   # 37 Iowa State                            +5.79             0.720
AWAY   # 53 Kansas State                          +1.95             0.600
HOME   # 71 TCU                                  +10.08             0.873
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                -6.27             0.235
AWAY   # 11 Kentucky                              -4.97             0.292
HOME   # 53 Kansas State                          +8.19             0.856
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                            -0.45             0.482
HOME   #  7 Texas                                 +0.73             0.538
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              -0.63             0.473
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +1.66             0.572
HOME   #  5 Baylor                                -0.03             0.499
AWAY   # 71 TCU                                   +3.84             0.668
HOME   # 16 West Virginia                         +2.02             0.606
HOME   # 27 Texas Tech                            +4.07             0.676
AWAY   #  7 Texas                                 -5.51             0.238

Here is Texas Southern's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 83 San Francisco               77  90   -13.25    +0.25
AWAY   # 27 Texas Tech                  54  78   -20.37    -3.63
HOME   # 50 Arizona State               67  66   -10.24   +11.24
HOME   # 93 Oral Roberts                64  82    -6.09   -11.91
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     48  83   -25.92    -9.08
AWAY   # 31 Auburn                      56  72   -19.57    +3.57
AWAY   #121 Samford                     63  78   -10.20    -4.80
AWAY   # 23 Kansas                               -21.32             0.002
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1

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