Probability of a Repeat NC

I correlated the AP Preseason rankings to the ultimate National Champions. First is a table showing the Preaseason Ranks of all teams since 1985 (first year of 64 team tourney).



When you do the correlation magic you come up with the following graph.



KU is currently ranked 4th in the ESPN Way-Too-Early Poll. Of course, that could and likely will change in the preseason AP Poll. But assuming we stay ranked 4th, we have a slightly better than 9% probability of repeating as National Champ.