Big 12 Race tightens - KU barely ahead of Baylor

The result of this win on the Big 12 race is probably not what you'd expect. KU gained 0.25 of a projected win with the victory, but the rest of the Big 12 contenders all had better wins and thus cut into KU's projected wins because of ratings. So KU's projected wins did not change from 13.3. But Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas all gained. Thus, KU probability to win the Big 12 slipped back. We are still the favorite but by a smaller margin. Here are the projections for the Big 12.

No fancy stats or charts here, but just an observation.

History tells us that 14 is the "magic number" get a least a share of the conference title most years. That roughly translates to winning all your home games (9 wins) and over half of your road games (5 wins). Looking at how the top teams stack up there, here's what we see:

KU: 5-1 overall, 2-0 home, 3-1 road. Two pieces of good news here: We've played almost half our road games already and are on track to get to the goal of 5 wins. Still on track at home with no losses. Bottom line: on track.

Baylor: 5-2 overall, 1-2 home, 4-0 road. Baylor is perfect on the road, but has already blown 2 home games. It's MUCH harder to make up for home losses with road wins. Bottom line: off track.

Tech: 5-2 overall, 4-0 home, 1-2 road. Tech is perfect at home and already played almost half their home games. They're still technically "on track" on the road, but the margin is getting tighter. This really makes tonight's game a must win for Tech. Bottom line: on tracxk

Tonight is clearly a big game as it can kick Tech back further out of the race and would result in a split for our series this year. K-State heads to Baylor tomorrow and it will be interesting to see if KSU's recent confidence can get them a W in Waco where Baylor has been struggling.