Big 12 projection, Round 6

What a wild Round!  The two teams with the projected easiest games both lost!  As a
result, Oklahoma leapfrogged both of those teams into first place.  Oklahoma State's
huge win over Kansas was enough for the Cowboys to leapfrog both Texas Tech and Kansas
State into seventh place.  And Tech's win over TCU was enough to leapfrog Kansas State,
despite how the Wildcats hung with Baylor until the second overtime.

Round 7 has a crucial game with Baylor at Oklahoma.  Baylor leads in the newspaper
standings, so some would like to see the Bears lose, but Oklahoma leads in the projected
standings, so others would like to see the Sooners lose.  The "ugly" game of the Round
(the one with the biggest projected margin) has Texas at Kansas, or to look at it
another way, the team with the biggest win of Round 6 taking on the team with the biggest
loss of Round 6.  That alone suggests the game won't be so ugly.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18    4  2  @BU  (Sa)   OU  by  1.6   projected road win
#  4  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82    4  2  @TT  (Sa)   WV  by  6.6   projected road win
#  6  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53    4  2   UT  (Sa)   KU  by 10.1
# 24  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15    5  1   OU  (Sa)
# 23  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99    3  3  @TCU (Sa)   ISU by  8.5   projected road win
# 36  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13    4  2  @KU  (Sa)   
# 63  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28    2  4  @KSU (Sa)
# 51  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16    2  4   WV  (Sa)
# 45  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02    1  5   OSU (Sa)   KSU by  5.0
#126  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74    1  5   ISU (Sa)

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 6.  Greenfield retains the season
lead.

Predictions                                                                                                  Reality  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           
OU  > ISU     1.9   2.0   1.2  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  -4.0   2.0   3.1   2.0  -1.0   1.4   2.8   0.9   1.6  -1.3     -5    
TT  > TCU     3.4   2.0   2.6   4.0   4.0   2.5  -2.0   3.7   3.8   4.3   4.0   2.2   4.5   2.6   6.7   3.1      7    
BU  > KSU     7.3   9.0   8.1   9.0  11.5   9.5  10.0   6.5   6.0   4.2   4.0   7.1   7.8   9.7   6.5   7.4      7    
KU  > OSU    10.1   9.0   8.6   9.5  11.5   9.0   9.0   8.8  10.3   6.9   7.0  10.4  11.5   9.6   9.2  12.0    -19    
WV  > UT     12.8  14.0  11.7  11.5  14.0  12.0  13.0  12.8  12.6  11.0  11.0  13.0  15.0  16.9  17.6  18.4     -7    

Error          1           1           1           +                       1                 +     1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
              6.9   7.0   6.2   3.0   7.0   3.0   1.0   7.0   8.1   7.0   4.0   6.4   7.8   5.9   6.6   3.7
              3.6   5.0   4.4   3.0   3.0   4.5   9.0   3.3   3.2   2.7   3.0   4.8   2.5   4.4   0.3   3.9
              0.3   2.0   1.1   2.0   4.5   2.5   3.0   0.5   1.0   2.8   3.0   0.1   0.8   2.7   0.5   0.4
             29.1  28.0  27.6  28.5  30.5  28.0  28.0  27.8  29.3  25.9  26.0  29.4  30.5  28.6  28.2  31.0
             19.8  21.0  18.7  18.5  21.0  19.0  20.0  19.8  19.6  18.0  18.0  20.0  22.0  23.9  24.6  25.4

total        59.7  63.0  58.0  55.0  66.0  57.0  61.0  58.4  61.2  56.4  54.0  60.7  63.6  65.5  60.2  64.4
prev        167.9 176.0 168.4 167.0 195.5 168.5 219.0 171.9 179.1 179.8 201.0 182.1 184.8 184.0 201.8 173.2
cumul       227.6 239.0 226.4 222.0 261.5 225.5 280.0 230.3 240.3 236.2 255.0 242.8 248.4 249.5 262.0 237.6
per game      7.6   8.0   7.5   7.4   8.7   7.5   9.3   7.7   8.0   7.9   8.5   8.1   8.3   8.3   8.7   7.9

Only two road wins instead of the three that were projected for Round 6, and one of those
two wasn't the expected one.  In other words, two of the projected road wins didn't happen.
We have another three road wins projected for Round 7.

Road wins ( 9 out of 30)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
2 Baylor          ISU TT              0 Baylor                                 +2 Baylor        
2 West Virginia   KSU TCU             0 Kansas                                 +1 Kansas        
1 Iowa State      KSU                 0 Oklahoma                               +1 Oklahoma      
1 Kansas          TT                  0 Texas                                  +1 Texas         
1 Oklahoma        OSU                 1 Iowa State      BU                     +1 West Virginia 
1 Texas           WV                  1 Oklahoma State  OU                      0 Iowa State    
1 Texas Tech      TCU                 1 West Virginia   UT                     -1 Oklahoma State
0 Kansas State                        2 Kansas State    WV  ISU                -1 Texas Tech    
0 Oklahoma State                      2 TCU             WV  TT                 -2 TCU           
0 TCU                                 2 Texas Tech      KU  BU                 -2 Kansas State  

A poor showing against TCU followed by a blowout loss in Stillwater has plummeted Kansas
to a last-place tie with West Virginia in the trend statistic, while Oklahoma State has
jumped to the top of the list.  Meanwhile, Kansas and Oklahoma State went from being
moderately consistent teams to among the least consistent.  Texas' 18 points above
expectation performance against West Virginia moved the Longhorns down the consistency
list as well.  Texas Tech remains improbably consistent, with every game having been
played within 10 points of expectation.  That can lull you into a false sense of
security with a game prediction.  The national average is closer to 11 points, so you
might think that sooner or later, the Red Raiders will play a game like Tuesday's in
Stillwater.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.98    Texas Tech        6.10    Oklahoma State  +0.69 +/- 0.50    Iowa State      +0.27 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma        +1.14    Oklahoma          7.90    Texas           +0.31 +/- 0.53    Oklahoma State  +0.27 +/- 0.22
Kansas          +0.89    Kansas State      8.11    Texas Tech      +0.27 +/- 0.30    Kansas State    +0.10 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech      +0.58    Iowa State        8.70    Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.38    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      +0.36    TCU               9.76    TCU             -0.18 +/- 0.45    TCU             -0.03 +/- 0.17
Baylor          +0.32    West Virginia    10.56    Iowa State      -0.23 +/- 0.40    Baylor          -0.12 +/- 0.22
Texas           +0.17    Oklahoma State   11.37    Baylor          -0.24 +/- 0.60    Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma State  -0.01    Kansas           11.48    Oklahoma        -0.58 +/- 0.37    Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.28
Kansas State    -0.16    Texas            11.49    Kansas          -0.66 +/- 0.56    Texas Tech      -0.23 +/- 0.15
TCU             -0.40    Baylor           11.73    West Virginia   -0.66 +/- 0.47    West Virginia   -0.41 +/- 0.20

Everybody's strength of schedule is now in the top 100 of Division I.  Texas coming
to Allen Field House will solidify their position as having played the toughest
overall schedule to this point of the season.  Oklahoma at Baylor will also improve
the Sooners' strength of schedule rating, though perhaps not their ranking.  Long
Beach State and Wake Forest are the #1 and #2 strengths of schedule.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Oklahoma        85.12    West Virginia   63.89    Iowa State      159.44    West Virginia   +17.83    Texas           79.57 ( 3)
Iowa State      84.22    Oklahoma State  66.17    Oklahoma        157.29    Oklahoma        +12.94    Oklahoma        79.36 ( 4)
Kansas          81.82    Kansas State    67.11    Kansas          150.82    Kansas          +12.82    Kansas          78.45 (10)
West Virginia   81.72    Baylor          67.88    Baylor          146.35    Baylor          +10.59    Iowa State      78.09 (13)
Baylor          78.47    Texas Tech      68.18    West Virginia   145.61    Iowa State       +9.00    Texas Tech      76.51 (28)
Texas           73.06    Texas           68.67    Texas           141.72    Kansas State     +5.00    Kansas State    76.42 (31)
Texas Tech      72.88    TCU             68.83    Texas Tech      141.06    Texas Tech       +4.71    West Virginia   75.34 (54)
Kansas State    72.11    Kansas          69.00    Kansas State    139.22    Texas            +4.39    Oklahoma State  74.72 (68)
Oklahoma State  70.44    Oklahoma        72.18    TCU             137.67    Oklahoma State   +4.28    Baylor          74.48 (75)
TCU             68.83    Iowa State      75.22    Oklahoma State  136.61    TCU               0.00    TCU             74.02 (93)