Joint OU/tu statement

The pontificates and the prognosticators are coming out of the woodwork with this OU/UT announcement. It has been fun reading all the views. Some are pretty credible and others probably not so much. Like the rest of you, after reading 20, 30, 40 various articles an such, you start to see some trends that seem to be pretty reasonable and common sense. While everything at this point is possible, here is my attempt to consolidate the various pontification and prognostications.

1. The Big 12 is sayonara, toast, kaput, extinct, el fin, yesterdays news, All the talk of the remaining 8 teams locking arms, singing kumbaya and adding the next great powerhouse teams is just romantic daydreaming of past greatness. Like it or not, OU and UT provide much of the impetus for financial success of the conference. That may not sit well for any fan of the other 8 schools but it is just a fact of life in 2021. There may be a delay in the dissolution until as late as 2025 but it (the dissolution of the Big 12) is a fait accompli.

2. The end of the Big 12 will end sooner than later. It has been very interesting to read all the takes on their tactics and strategies of the various players in this tableau as they seek to gain the upper hand of leverage in the negotiations. But after reading a number of takes on all these machinations, it seems reasonably clear at this point that no one, not one of the players in this drama have much to gain by dragging it out. The so called “ironclad” rights of the conference over the TV rights of all the member schools is causing a legion of possible negotiation scenarios. But all parties realize, this needs to a shorter term solution. If I had to put odds on it, I would bet the Big 12 is gone by the start of the 2022 season and certainly by the 2023 season.

3. While the AAC is going to try to leverage this to slide into the place of the Big 12 as the 5th Power 5 conference, it seems somewhat clear at this point that we are moving to the Power 4 conferences. These Power 4 conferences are going to attempt to lock up every major recruiting area and every major and even minor TV market. There will just basically be nothing left for the AAC to break into a level par with what the Power 4 will control.

4. The NCAA is on the same sinking boat as the Big 12. I do not see a viable path forward for the NCAA. Things like setting scholarship limits, recruiting limitations, coaching limitations, are no longer necessary. The only hope the NCAA had (and this was even a Hail Mary) was to lead a bold charge to set a clear and universally accepted pattern for the new NIL issue. When the NCAA basically dropped the ball (or more accurately it went right through their hands, hit them in the face and fell to the ground) on the NIL issue, it was time to buy the casket. They are history. Look for the SEC to lead the way in forming their own guidelines on issues formally in the venue of the NCAA. Incidentally, no one will show up to the funeral for the NCAA. No one will be sad to see them go.

5. The 8 remaining Big 12 schools are actively seeking where to land. They slightly attractive gambit of forcing UT and OU to cough up mega dollars to exit early sounds like a little poetic justice, but it is utterly stupid in the longer term interests of the other 8 schools. There are several reasons for this. The other Power 4 conferences, despite the maneuvering by the PAC 12 commissioner, need to move judiciously to compete with the new world order being set by the SEC. They will all be looking to expand their footprint for TV, increasing their revenue base and exposure and even critical mass for the new rules that will be coming down the pike. Each of the ACC, Big Ten and PAC-12 will be seeking out schools to strengthen their brand and viability. They may even try to poach each other. As they say, it’s best to have a job when you are looking for a job. Basically, the 8 Big 12 schools are now out of work looking for a job . That is a much greater sense of urgency than say a Florida St, Clemson, or someone else that may want to change conferences but doesn’t have to. The Big 12 schools would be foolish not to line up a new home as quickly as possible.

6. I have read that KU will be super coveted and I have read where they are all but destined to end up in the Mountain West or some such conference. I am obviously biased but KU seems to have more positives than negatives. Especially since the negatives are potentially transitory. I have read reasonable pontification where KU ends up in the Big Ten, the ACC and the PAC-12 as well as the Mountain West. All four seem like better than zero probabilities at this point. It seems like the Big 10 may be top of the heap. I will watch this closely as more information comes available. But like point 5 above, what seems clear is KU will be super actively pushing to find a home. A revamped Big 12 is another possibility but seems to me to be very near a zero probability. As a KU fan about the only sure thing is that life over the next couple years is going to be radically different.

7. Less universalism. One intersecting take I have read is that with the NCAA gone and 4 power conferences with 16 (or more) teams, there will be much less inter conference interaction. It used to be teams played 8 conference football games and 16-18 in basketball. Some have argued that that will increase to as many as 11 for football and 24 for basketball. This seems to be in KU’s favor slightly. One of the key sources for income in basketball is the key matchups with superpower teams. A team like KU would be a goldmine for this. The big losers (and I mean really big losers) in this new format old be anyone outside the Power 4 conferences. It destroys a big source of income for non power conference teams. This also serves KU since it would actually be noice in a way for Michigan or Ohio State to have a designated victory in football against KU and freeing them up to have one of these made for TV super matchups out of conference. Plus, you could see each of the power conferences do conferences mini-tournamants kind of like the SEC vs Big 12. Only you will see all 4 Power basketball conferences (Big East included) having these multi-team inter conference series. Again, the big losers are non power conference teams. Very interesting.

8. Can Norte Dame survive as an independent?

This is certainly something to do in these funky summer months.

Really nice summary HE. Thanks.

I have long hoped that KU would join the Big !0. I live in Illinois: many of my close friends attended Illinois or Wisconsin. The idea of the Hawks playing 3 0r 4 basketball games within a 4 hour drive sounds great.

Then today as I was on a bike ride it occurred to me that the Pac 16 might be our new home. Seems that taking apart the Big XII gets easier if, after UT and OU, there are four lifeboats sailing west. WV wouldn't geographically make sense as part of that group so four of KU, BU. TCU, OSU, ISU , TT and KSU join the Arizona schools the Buffs and Utes in the inland division? If the Clones go to the Big 10 it gets simpler,