predictions for Southern California game

The road to the Elite Eight now goes through the Pac 12, which happens to be
undefeated so far in this tournament, while #3 seeds from the Big 12 are
an endangered species.  That doesn't bode well for Kansas.  However...

Southern Cal has played only 3 games against the Sagarin Top 25 and lost all
three.  They are 5-5 against the Sagarin Top 50.  Meanwhile, Kansas is 6-7
against the Sagarin Top 25.  So, how does Sagarin explain his eigenvector
analysis, which has the Trojans winning by 8.6 points?  His other methods
all pick Kansas, though three are one-possession affairs.  The Recent Games
method is the most favorable at 5.5 points.

[N.B. The above was written after the Sagarin ratings from the Round of 64
were released.  Oregon has since moved up to #25, while Oklahoma State has
moved down to #28, changing those records to 1-3 for USC and 5-6 for Kansas.]

Another head-scratcher is Greenfield's prediction.  He has Kansas ranked
#11 and Southern Cal at #17.  The rating values are 16.9 for Kansas and
16.4 for Southern Cal.  So why is USC favored by 1.5 points?  Does he know
what Wilson's status is for the game, or is he simply ignoring his own
ranking and going with what Vegas says?

[N.B. The above was written yesterday, and Greenfield has since reduced the
margin for USC to just 1.0 points.]

The reverse situation appears with Dolphin.  His Predictive method has USC
ranked #8 and Kansas at #15, but he favors Kansas by a point.  His Standard,
Median Likelihood, and Improved RPI methods also have USC ranked higher.
Kansas has a slight edge in regular RPI (#11 to #13) and in Pairwise (#8 to
#11).  He notes that Pairwise is used by the selection committee for hockey.

Ditto for ESPN's BPI.  USC is #17 while Kansas is #20, yet the prediction
has Kansas by 0.4 points.

The average favors USC, but by a mere 0.1 points.  Overtime, anyone?  The
scatter is 3.2 points.

USC has Pomeroy's #8 defense, while after giving up 84 points to Eastern
Washington, Kansas has slid to #10.  Expect a low-scoring defensive contest.
USC does have Pomeroy's #22 offense, while Kansas languishes at #49.

USC's trend and mental toughness values are effectively zero, while Kansas
has a positive trend and a negative mental toughness rating.  Everything
pretty much cancels out.  Two evenly matched teams.

Win today, and Kansas would face Oregon next weekend in the Sweet Sixteen,
for which the current ratings would favor Kansas by a couple of points.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     USC      KU      Defensive Stats     USC      KU
Points/Game         74.7    73.2     Opp Points/Game     64.8    66.8
Avg Score Margin    +9.9    +6.4     Opp Effective FG %  45.0    47.4
Assists/Game        13.9    13.9     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.4    10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.3    37.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.8    24.9
Effective FG %      52.2    50.0     Blocks/Game          5.3     4.0
Off Rebound %       33.2    30.0     Steals/Game          4.7     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.371   0.302     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.3    15.5
Turnover %          15.0    14.9

Kansas has the advantage in only one of the eight offensive categories and in
only one of the seven defensive categories.

My Stats Comparison        KU            USC
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.05           +2.01    
inconsistency         11.07           11.50    
trend                 +0.13 ± 0.26    -0.02 ± 0.25
mental toughness      -0.30 ± 0.24    +0.02 ± 0.35
average total pts      140.07         139.47    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  That was easy.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Evan Mobley (forward)
most points        Evan Mobley (forward)
most rebounds      Evan Mobley (forward)
most assists       Ethan Anderson (guard)
most steals        Isaiah White (guard)
most blocks        Evan Mobley (forward)
most turnovers     Evan Mobley (forward)
most fouls         Isaiah Mobley (forward)

Wilson has arrived in Indianapolis and is expected to play.  For how many
minutes is hard to predict.  McCormack was able to go for quite a few more
minutes than expected.

[N.B. These predictions were mostly compiled on Sunday after the results of
Saturday's games were included in the various ratings.  Sagarin's have changed
slightly, uniformly shrinking.]

                                                          21-8           23-7
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Southern Cal
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +1.40   68   67       55       #  9   # 18    # 18   # 62
Sagarin Predictor       +0.78   68   67       52.8     # 13   # 18    # 20   # 62 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.70   69   67                #  9   # 18    # 18   # 62 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.49   70   65                #  8   # 18    # 28   # 62 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -8.61   63   72       22   
Massey                  +1.00   69   68       52       #  9   # 32    # 13   # 44
Pomeroy                 -1.94   63   65                # 18   # 23    #  9   # 47
Greenfield              -1.00   67   68                # 11   #  9    # 17   # 48
Dunkel                  +4.50   68   63                # 21           # 17                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.50   66   68                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +0.99   68   67       53.6     # 15   # 13    #  8   # 30
Real Time               -4.00   62   66       42.9     # 18   # 19    # 13   # 43 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   69   67       55       # 44   #  7    #  8   # 65
DPPI                    -1.10   69   70       46.6     # 12   # 23    # 11   # 38 
ESPN BPI                +0.40                 51.8     # 20   # 33    # 17   # 65
Whitlock                -1.83                          # 19   # 41    #  9   # 33
Colley Matrix           -0.41                          # 16   # 18    # 13   # 54
NCAA NET                                               # 11           # 19
LRMS                                                   # 15   # 24    #  9   # 39
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -0.13   67.1 67.1     48.0
scatter                  3.20    2.6  2.2     10.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is now 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.94    -4.06
NEUT   #205 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +19.31    +2.69
NEUT   # 47 Kentucky                    65  62    +4.95    -1.95
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #159 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.68   -13.68
HOME   # 18 Creighton                   73  72    +2.71    -1.71
HOME   #291 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +26.72   +18.28
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  58  57    -1.68    +2.68
HOME   # 19 West Virginia               79  65    +2.83   +11.17
HOME   # 22 Texas                       59  84    +3.69   -28.69
AWAY   #109 TCU                         93  64    +9.34   +19.66
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                    63  59    +5.05    -1.05
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma State              70  75    +0.61    -5.61
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -7.64    -0.36
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                    68  75    +0.93    -7.93
HOME   #109 TCU                         59  51   +13.46    -5.46
AWAY   # 16 Tennessee                   61  80    -1.57   -17.43
HOME   #140 Kansas State                74  51   +16.51    +6.49
AWAY   # 19 West Virginia               79  91    -1.29   -10.71
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma State              78  66    +4.73    +7.27
HOME   #137 Iowa State                  97  64   +16.19   +16.81
AWAY   #137 Iowa State                  64  50   +12.07    +1.93
AWAY   #140 Kansas State                59  41   +12.39    +5.61
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                  67  61    +2.44    +3.56
AWAY   # 22 Texas                       72  75    -0.43    -2.57
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      71  58    -3.52   +16.52
HOME   #148 UTEP                        67  62   +17.00   -12.00
NEUT   # 33 Oklahoma                    69  62    +2.99    +4.01
NEUT   #105 Eastern Washington          93  84   +11.16    -2.16
NEUT   # 20 Southern California                   +0.78             0.528
NEUT   # 25 Oregon                                +2.41             0.586
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -7.94             0.236
NEUT   #  6 Michigan                              -3.41             0.379
NEUT   #  2 Baylor                                -5.58             0.297

Here is Southern California's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #240 California Baptist          95  87   +22.80   -14.80
HOME   #180 Montana                     76  62   +19.05    -5.05
NEUT   # 26 BYU                         79  53    +1.65   +24.35
NEUT   # 27 Connecticut                 58  61    +1.67    -4.67
HOME   #125 UC Irvine                   91  56   +14.31   +20.69
HOME   #156 Santa Clara                 86  63   +16.76    +6.24
HOME   #  9 Colorado                    62  72    +1.01   -11.01
HOME   # 68 Utah                        64  46    +9.02    +8.98
AWAY   # 43 Arizona                     87  73    +1.47   +12.53
AWAY   # 81 Arizona State               73  64    +6.18    +2.82
HOME   #145 UC Riverside                67  62   +16.08   -11.08
HOME   #150 Washington                  95  68   +16.28   +10.72
HOME   # 95 Washington State            85  77   +11.86    -3.86
AWAY   # 75 Oregon State                56  58    +5.60    -7.60
AWAY   #129 California                  76  68   +10.68    -2.68
HOME   # 75 Oregon State                75  62    +9.72    +3.28
AWAY   # 63 Stanford                    72  66    +4.14    +1.86
HOME   # 34 UCLA                        66  48    +4.49   +13.51
AWAY   #150 Washington                  69  54   +12.16    +2.84
AWAY   # 95 Washington State            76  65    +7.74    +3.26
HOME   # 81 Arizona State               89  71   +10.30    +7.70
HOME   # 43 Arizona                     72  81    +5.59   -14.59
HOME   # 25 Oregon                      72  58    +3.69   +10.31
AWAY   #  9 Colorado                    62  80    -3.11   -14.89
AWAY   # 68 Utah                        61  71    +4.90   -14.90
HOME   # 63 Stanford                    79  42    +8.26   +28.74
AWAY   # 34 UCLA                        64  63    +0.37    +0.63
NEUT   # 68 Utah                        91  85    +6.96    -0.96
NEUT   #  9 Colorado                    70  72    -1.05    -0.95
NEUT   # 69 Drake                       72  56    +7.09    +8.91
NEUT   # 13 Kansas                                -0.78             0.472