predictions for Eastern Washington game

I was going to start off with "Let the madness begin", but the madness
has already begun.  One of the #2 seeds is already out of the tournament,
and the mighty Big Ten conference has only 6 of its 9 entrants remaining.
The ACC, which had a long reign as the toughest basketball conference,
has already had 4 of its 7 entrants lose.  The Big 12's 7 entrants are
unscathed at this point, as are the Pac 12's 5 entrants, and the Big
East's 4 entrants, though the majority of these last two conference's
games get played on Saturday.

The point here is that nobody is safe.  Survive and advance.  Take
your opponent seriously.  Win or go home.  Heck, McCormack just got to
Indianapolis; no point in turning around and going back to Lawrence only
one day later.

Having said all that, Kansas is a solid 10.5 point favorite, with the
scatter in the various prognosticators running around 3.8 points.  But
that's what the computers say for the teams that have competed up to
this point.  The Kansas team that plays on Saturday is NOT the same
team as the computers have evaluated; Jalen Wilson, the leading
rebounder, is unavailable for the game.  And McCormack has a couple
weeks of rust to wear off.

The pessimist is Dunkel, who still has the Jayhawks winning, but by a
mere 2 points.  The optimist is Sagarin's eigenvector analysis, which
has the Jayhawks by 18 points.  That's interesting, because at the
beginning of the season, Sagain's eigenvector analysis was habitually
predicting worse performances by the Jayhawks.  Again, none of these
projections know that Wilson is out and that McCormack is rusty.

Kansas is a fair bit more inconsistent than Eastern Washington.  Two of
the last three Kansas games are indicative of that inconsistency,
playing 16 points above expectation against a virus-paused Baylor squad,
then 12 points below expectation in a pick-up game against UTEP.
Eastern Washington has played only 3 games with a double-digit departure
from expectation, the most lopsided just two games ago against Montana.

Both teams have positive trends, though neither is statistically
significant.  Kansas still has the negative mental toughness rating,
but that helps against a weaker opponent, while Eastern Washington's is
positive, which helps them against a tougher opponent.  On balance,
Kansas comes out ahead by a fair margin.

Greenfield views Eastern Washington's schedule the most favorably, ranking
it #159, while Dolphin has it way down at #317.  The toughest opponent
they faced is Oregon; they lost by 17.  Against the second-toughest
opponent, they came within 3 points of Arizona.

Pomeroy has Eastern Washington with the #86 offense and the #148 defense.
In other words, the Eagles are a better offensive team than a defensive
team.  But you know the old saying:  offense wins games, defense wins
championships.  Kansas now has the #6 defense; that ought to shut down
Eastern Washington.  If something shuts down the Jayhawks' offense, it'll
be the Jayhawks' inconsistency, not Eastern Washington.

Embrace the madness, and Rock Chalk.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      EW      KU      Defensive Stats      EW      KU
Points/Game         78.0    72.5     Opp Points/Game     70.0    66.2
Avg Score Margin    +7.9    +6.3     Opp Effective FG %  47.5    47.0
Assists/Game        15.0    13.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      6.5    10.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.0    37.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.0    24.9
Effective FG %      54.1    49.7     Blocks/Game          2.7     4.0
Off Rebound %       22.1    30.1     Steals/Game          4.9     6.7
FTA/FGA            0.304   0.305     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.0    15.4
Turnover %          14.9    15.2

Kansas has the advantage in just three of the eight offensive categories and in
six of the seven defensive categories.  Eastern Washington grabs 1.1 more
defensive rebounds per game.

My Stats Comparison        KU             EW
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.13           +0.81    
inconsistency         11.21            8.68    
trend                 +0.15 ± 0.28    +0.21 ± 0.30
mental toughness      -0.33 ± 0.25    +0.15 ± 0.23
average total pts      138.70         148.00    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  That was easy.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kim Aiken Jr. (guard)
most points        Tanner Groves (forward)
most rebounds      Kim Aiken Jr. (guard)
most assists       Tyler Robertson (guard)
most steals        Kim Aiken Jr. (guard)
most blocks        Kim Aiken Jr. (guard)
most turnovers     Tanner Groves (forward)
most fouls         Tanner Groves (forward)

McCormack is expected back for the game, but Wilson and Enaruna are still
in virus protocol.

                                                          20-8           16-7
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       East. Wash.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +12.05   77   65       85       # 10   # 21    #111   #215
Sagarin Predictor      +11.86   77   65       88.2     # 12   # 21    #111   #215 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +12.31   77   64                # 10   # 21    #112   #215 
Sagarin Recent Games   +11.43   76   65                # 10   # 21    # 82   #215 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +18.08   80   62       92   
Massey                 +10.00   76   66       83       #  9   # 31    #108   #181
Pomeroy                +10.37   76   66                # 22   # 20    #110   #236
Greenfield             +10.50   77   67                # 10   #  9    #106   #159
Dunkel                  +2.00   67.5 65.5              # 45           # 61                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +10.50   78   68                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +12.18   79   67       85.5     # 18   # 13    #112   #317
Real Time               +3.00   69   66       55.2     # 24   # 24    # 90   #270 
Seven Overtimes         +9.00   76   67       76       # 47   #  9    # 64   #232
DPPI                   +10.80   76   65.5     82.6     # 20   # 25    #      #    
ESPN BPI               +11.80                 85.1     # 19   # 31    #103   #220
Whitlock                +8.22                          # 19   # 41    # 94   #201
Colley Matrix          +14.98                          # 16   # 18    #125   #270
NCAA NET                                               # 11           #114
LRMS                                                   # 15   # 24    #127   #228
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +10.53   75.8 65.6     81.4
scatter                  3.76    3.4  1.5     10.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is now 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.56    -4.44
NEUT   #200 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +18.73    +3.27
NEUT   # 51 Kentucky                    65  62    +4.99    -1.99
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #162 North Dakota State          65  61   +18.08   -14.08
HOME   # 15 Creighton                   73  72    +2.19    -1.19
HOME   #298 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +26.91   +18.09
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  58  57    -0.95    +1.95
HOME   # 20 West Virginia               79  65    +3.32   +10.68
HOME   # 23 Texas                       59  84    +3.71   -28.71
AWAY   #110 TCU                         93  64    +9.61   +19.39
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                    63  59    +5.47    -1.47
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State              70  75    +0.97    -5.97
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -7.20    -0.80
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                    68  75    +1.35    -8.35
HOME   #110 TCU                         59  51   +13.73    -5.73
AWAY   # 14 Tennessee                   61  80    -1.95   -17.05
HOME   #144 Kansas State                74  51   +16.85    +6.15
AWAY   # 20 West Virginia               79  91    -0.80   -11.20
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State              78  66    +5.09    +6.91
HOME   #141 Iowa State                  97  64   +16.43   +16.57
AWAY   #141 Iowa State                  64  50   +12.31    +1.69
AWAY   #144 Kansas State                59  41   +12.73    +5.27
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                  67  61    +3.17    +2.83
AWAY   # 23 Texas                       72  75    -0.41    -2.59
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      71  58    -3.08   +16.08
HOME   #152 UTEP                        67  62   +17.42   -12.42
NEUT   # 35 Oklahoma                    69  62    +3.41    +3.59
NEUT   #111 Eastern Washington                   +11.86             0.882
NEUT   # 24 Southern California                   +1.86             0.567
NEUT   #  4 Iowa                                  -4.31             0.349
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -7.56             0.248
NEUT   #  5 Michigan                              -4.13             0.355
NEUT   #  2 Baylor                                -5.14             0.313

Here is Eastern Washington's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #107 Washington State            68  71    -2.55    -0.45
AWAY   # 50 Arizona                     67  70    -9.01    +6.01
AWAY   # 34 Oregon                      52  69   -10.77    -6.23
NAIA        College of Idado            80  56
AWAY   # 75 Saint Mary's-Cal.           75  80    -5.78    +0.78
AWAY   #313 Northern Arizona            80  64   +12.36    +3.64
HOME   #161 Southern Utah               75  63    +6.20    +5.80
HOME   #161 Southern Utah               94  99    +6.20   -11.20
AWAY   #221 Northern Colorado           76  78    +6.28    -8.28
AWAY   #221 Northern Colorado           82  76    +6.28    -0.28
HOME   #261 Sacramento State            68  60   +12.53    -4.53
HOME   #261 Sacramento State            94  79   +12.53    +2.47
AWAY   #349 Idaho                       89  75   +18.08    -4.08
HOME   #349 Idaho                       90  64   +22.20    +3.80
AWAY   #218 Montana State               93  77    +6.16    +9.84
AWAY   #218 Montana State               85  69    +6.16    +9.84
HOME   #188 Montana                     90  76    +8.37    +5.63
AWAY   #188 Montana                     90  76    +4.25    +9.75
HOME   #275 Idaho State                 63  68   +13.88   -18.88
HOME   #275 Idaho State                 75  62   +13.88    -0.88
NEUT   #313 Northern Arizona            66  60   +14.42    -8.42
NEUT   #188 Montana                     78  50    +6.31   +21.69
NEUT   #218 Montana State               65  55    +8.22    +1.78
NEUT   # 12 Kansas                               -11.86             0.118