predictions for Oklahoma State game

For the TCU game, I wrote that it doesn't get any easier than this.  Let's
hope it does.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 10.1 point margin, with an 85.5 percent probability of
winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 143.2 points per game,
that suggests a final score of Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 67.  Kansas has been
playing 1.3 points above expectation, while Oklahoma State has been playing
0.2 points below expectation, which means that the margin for Kansas could be
11.5 points.  Kansas now has a negative trend, thanks to squandering a 19 point
lead with under 5 minutes to play against the conference's cellar dwellar.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has a positive trend, though neither is statistically
significant.  Ditto for Kansas' negative and Oklahoma State's positive mental
toughness ratings.  Inconsistency values are similar for both teams.  Kansas has
played just 2 of its 16 Division I games below expectation by more than 10.1
points, including its most recent game, corresponding to a 12.5 percent chance
of losing.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has played just 2 of its 17 games above
expectation by more than 10.1 points, one of them being way back in the season
opener, corresponding to an 11.8 percent chance of winning.  Those average to
a 12.1 percent chance of Kansas losing, a little less pessimistic than the
probability derived from the Sagarin ratings mentioned above.

Massey gives Kansas a 9.0 point margin, with a 79 percent probability of winning
the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 68.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 11.0 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 6.3 units, which combine to a 17.3 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 69.0 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 11.9 points on a neutral court.  Subtract Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and the margin becomes 8.6 points.  The ratings suggest a score of
Kansas 75, Oklahoma State 67.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 9.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 76 to 67.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in seven of eight categories; Oklahoma State attempts more free throws per field
goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of
seven categories; Oklahoma State holds opponents to few points per game and gets
more blocks per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
9.0 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total points
projection of 139, the implied final score is Kansas 75, Oklahoma State 64.
Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 143, which would imply a final score of
Kansas 76, Oklahoma State 67.  Guess what?  Dunkel finally updated his rankings.

Real Time is being inconsistent again.  The schedule page gives Kansas a 10.0 point
margin with a final score of 83 to 73, while the Game Prediction Analysis page gives
Kansas a 9 point margin with a final score of 82 to 73.  The probability of winning
the game is given as 67.6 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas an 8.8 point margin, with a 77.7 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 75, Oklahoma State 67.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 18.8 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 13.6 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by 10.3 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 10.2 points in favor of
Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage,
and Kansas has a 6.9 point margin.  What I'd like to know is why ESPN's BPI has
Oklahoma State with a stronger schedule than Kansas, when everybody else I track
has it the other way around, and not even close?  The highest ranked non-conference
game played by the Cowboys was against #26 Florida.  Meanwhile, Kansas played both
#7 Michigan State and #18 Vanderbilt.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, corresponding to a 77 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 75 to 68.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 10.4 point margin.

DPPI gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin.

There are four common opponents, all in conference:

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)
OSU +21 TCU at home (+17 neutral)
KU  -18 OSU on road (-14 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
OSU -17 BU  on road (-13 neutral)
KU  +33 OSU on road (+37 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
OSU -17 WV  on road (-13 neutral)
KU   +2 OSU on road ( +6 neutral)

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
OSU  -2 OU  at home ( -6 neutral)
KU   +1 OSU on road ( +5 neutral)

Three of the comparions favor Kansas, one favors Oklahoma State.  Even if Kansas
had not squandered that 19 point lead late against TCU, Oklahoma State would come
out on top in that comparison.  The Baylor comparison compensates, however.  The
average is 4.5 points in favor of Kansas, the most pessimistic of the prognostications.

Players to watch:  Guard Jawun Evans plays the most minutes and dishes the most assists,
but also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Phil Forte III is their leading scorer, but is
likely out for the rest of the season; Evans is the leading scorer among the remaining players.
Guard Jeff Newberry is their leading rebounder and leading thief.  Yes, you read that
right; a guard is their leading rebounder.  In fact, their top four rebounders are all
guards!  Forward Anthony Allen Jr. is their leading shot blocker.  Mitchell Solomon grabs
the most rebounds of their forwards, but also commits the most personal fouls.  Guard Davon
Dillard has been suspended indefinitely, but only averages 4 minutes a game.

The average of the various prognostications is 9.2 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 76, Oklahoma State 67.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  2   # 14   #  3   #  1   #  4   +1.3    9.3   -0.11 +/- 0.52   -0.07 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State # 85   #118   # 81   # 82   # 97   -0.2    9.7   +0.25 +/- 0.49   +0.15 +/- 0.20
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  #  5   #  2   # 16   #  1  #  4    #  2    #  1   #  7   #  4   #  6
Oklahoma State #117  # 69   # 82   #108   # 77  # 74    #104    #143   #131   #154   #144
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5   #  5   #  4   #  5   #  4   #  1   #  5   1.050   15-2     #  2  # 17
Oklahoma State #141   #137   # 77   #153   #159   #139   #132   0.384    9-8     # 76  #147
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5  #  6    #  2  # 33    #  9  # 66    #  9  # 17    #  3  # 19    #  3  #  3
Oklahoma State #132  # 90    # 89  # 55    # 82  # 59    # 80  # 60    #132  # 77    #105  # 39

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #310 Northern Colorado          109  72   +35.13    +1.87
NEUT   #  7 Michigan State              73  79    +1.32    -7.32
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 60 UCLA                        92  73   +11.86    +7.14
NEUT   # 18 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +3.78    +3.22
HOME   #277 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +31.71    +1.29
HOME   #107 Harvard                     75  69   +19.63   -13.63
HOME   #287 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.39    +0.61
HOME   # 65 Oregon State                82  67   +15.56    -0.56
HOME   #163 Montana                     88  46   +23.61   +18.39
AWAY   # 72 San Diego State             70  57    +9.25    +3.75
HOME   # 85 UC Irvine                   78  53   +16.98    +8.02
HOME   # 25 Baylor                     102  74    +9.54   +18.46
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                   109 106    +4.54    -1.54
AWAY   # 50 Texas Tech                  69  59    +7.31    +2.69
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               63  74    -3.45    -7.55
HOME   #128 TCU                         70  63   +21.05   -14.05
AWAY   # 81 Oklahoma State                       +10.06             0.855
HOME   # 39 Texas                                +12.73             0.895
AWAY   # 24 Iowa State                            +2.44             0.607
HOME   # 31 Kentucky                             +10.72             0.854
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                         +13.47             0.937
AWAY   #128 TCU                                  +14.37             0.931
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         +3.23             0.635
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                              -2.14             0.403
HOME   # 81 Oklahoma State                       +16.74             0.961
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                          +6.79             0.780
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                                +2.86             0.607
HOME   # 50 Texas Tech                           +13.99             0.962
AWAY   # 39 Texas                                 +6.05             0.724
HOME   # 24 Iowa State                            +9.12             0.845

Here is Oklahoma State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #244 Tennessee-Martin            91  57   +15.69   +18.31
HOME   #346 Ark.-Pine Bluff             86  72   +27.34   -13.34
NEUT   #178 Towson                      69  52    +7.98    +9.02
NEUT   #190 George Mason                68  71    +9.15   -12.15
NEUT   #116 Long Beach State            82  77    +3.61    +1.39
HOME   #116 Long Beach State            79  73    +6.95    -0.95
HOME   # 74 Tulsa                       56  66    +2.66   -12.66
HOME   #213 Missouri State              63  64   +14.03   -15.03
AWAY   #177 Minnesota                   62  60    +4.63    -2.63
HOME   #300 Longwood                    73  55   +20.32    -2.32
AWAY   # 26 Florida                     70  72   -10.43    +8.43
HOME   #228 Kansas City(UMKC)           61  43   +14.71    +3.29
HOME   #128 TCU                         69  48    +7.65   +13.35
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      62  79   -10.54    -6.46
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               60  77   -16.85    -0.15
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                    72  74    -8.86    +6.86
AWAY   # 39 Texas                       69  74    -7.35    +2.35
HOME   #  3 Kansas                               -10.06             0.145
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                          -6.61             0.231
HOME   # 25 Baylor                                -3.86             0.359
AWAY   #121 Auburn                                +0.54             0.521
AWAY   # 50 Texas Tech                            -6.09             0.225
HOME   # 24 Iowa State                            -4.28             0.321
AWAY   #128 TCU                                   +0.97             0.539
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                          +0.07             0.503
AWAY   #  3 Kansas                               -16.74             0.039
HOME   # 50 Texas Tech                            +0.59             0.529
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                             -15.54             0.040
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                        -10.17             0.143
AWAY   # 24 Iowa State                           -10.96             0.116
HOME   # 39 Texas                                 -0.67             0.474