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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Roy or Bill? What do the numbers say?
3 years 1 month ago - 3 years 1 month ago #26453
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
As I mentioned previously, I have finally obtained the ability to run my DPPI and do all sorts of other analysis on teams back to 1950. So I thus far I have run my DPPI back to 1985 which includes all of Roy and Bill's tenures and 4 of the 5 years of Larry. Below is the ranking in all the categories. I also summarized Roy and Bill to see where they stood relative to each other. And the Jury is in.
So who is better at KU, Roy or Bill. Well picture a marathon race of 26+ miles and 2+ hours and down the final stretch there are 2 runners side by side. As they approach the finish line, one runner leans forward and wins the race by nose in a photo finish as both runners cross the line at essentially the same exact time. That is the race between Roy and Bill. If this season's team were a top 5 team, that nose would go to Bill. But since it is a 20ish ranked team, that nose goes to Roy. But it couldn't be any closer if you tried to fudge the numbers.
Self edges Roy in the Power Ranking (by 1.9%). Roy edges Bill by a little lesser amount in the Performance Rating (by 0.4%). When you roll it up into the total rating, Roy edges bill by 0.17%. Once again, Roy edges Bill out in average offense by 0.001 points per possession. But Bill edges Roy by 0.001 PPP on defense. So their overall scoring efficiency is exactly equal. Well, not exactly. If you take it to a 4th decimal point, Bill edges Roy in total scoring margin efficiency 0.2146 to 0.2137. So pretty much no matter how you slice it, Bill and Roy have more or less the exact same results at Kansas. And more importantly, both results fall into the extremely excellent category.
Just for fun, I also compared these numbers to Roy at UNC. And as Gomer Pyle would say, "Surprise surprise surprise!" Roy's time at UNC is significantly below his time at KU. The only positive you can say about Roy in his tenure at UNC versus his tenure at KU is he has been better at offense. But way worse on defense. Of course he has won 3 NC's at UNC and that is certainly significant. But what the DPPI does is measures the average team over the long term and Roy was significantly better at Kansas than he has been at UNC.
Bill wins the award for best team which was the 2020 team that edged out the 1997 team in 2nd. Bill also gets the award for best defensive team which again was the 2020 team and by a good amount. Last season's team was really special defensively. Bill also gets the award for the best offensive team which was also last season's team which just barely edged out the 1997 team. Now bear in mind, the DPPI offensive rating is a rating of efficiency not explosiveness. Efficiency is the PPP. Last season's team was not as explosive as the 1997 team but more efficient.
As an aside, and something that is sort of interesting. The two worst offensive teams going back to 1985 are...are you ready for this? The 1988 National Championship team was the least offensively efficient team at KU since 1985 and the 2nd worst is this season. 1987, 1989 and 1999 round out the bottom 5. So how the heck did we win a national championship with a team that couldn't score? I'll give a 2 word answer. The 1st word is "MANNING". The 2nd word is "DEFENSE". That 1988 team was anemic offensively, but they were also the 5th best defensive team behind 2020 (great team), 2008 (great team), 1991 (great team) and 2012 (great defensive team). Notice anything in common about these great defensive teams. Two (1988, 2008) won national championships, one (2012) lost to a juggernaut in the 2012 National Championship game, one (2020) was the odds on favorite to win a National Championship and the final one (1991) lost a heartbreaker to Duke in the 1991 National Championship game. Is it any coincidence that the 5 best defensive teams at Kansas in the last 36 years, all played in a National Championship (or likely would have in the case of 2020) games? I think not. So this season, this team is currently ranked 22nd. But if you took the last 9 games, this team this season would rank 4th over the last 36 years and essentially the same as the 1991 and 2012 teams. But there still is this pesky little problem of offense. Even in the last 9 games their offense has been essentially the same as the season average (1.056 for the last 9 games vs. 1.049 for the season). But defense travels and this team is getting better faster on defense than any KU team I can remember. That is certainly a note for optimism.
Also, if you would like to view all kinds of cool stuff, you can go to DPPI Site . It has my DPPI, the Jayhawk stats, the Big 12 stats and projection, the NCAA Tourney projections, the KU Player Ratings and more.
So who is better at KU, Roy or Bill. Well picture a marathon race of 26+ miles and 2+ hours and down the final stretch there are 2 runners side by side. As they approach the finish line, one runner leans forward and wins the race by nose in a photo finish as both runners cross the line at essentially the same exact time. That is the race between Roy and Bill. If this season's team were a top 5 team, that nose would go to Bill. But since it is a 20ish ranked team, that nose goes to Roy. But it couldn't be any closer if you tried to fudge the numbers.
Self edges Roy in the Power Ranking (by 1.9%). Roy edges Bill by a little lesser amount in the Performance Rating (by 0.4%). When you roll it up into the total rating, Roy edges bill by 0.17%. Once again, Roy edges Bill out in average offense by 0.001 points per possession. But Bill edges Roy by 0.001 PPP on defense. So their overall scoring efficiency is exactly equal. Well, not exactly. If you take it to a 4th decimal point, Bill edges Roy in total scoring margin efficiency 0.2146 to 0.2137. So pretty much no matter how you slice it, Bill and Roy have more or less the exact same results at Kansas. And more importantly, both results fall into the extremely excellent category.
Just for fun, I also compared these numbers to Roy at UNC. And as Gomer Pyle would say, "Surprise surprise surprise!" Roy's time at UNC is significantly below his time at KU. The only positive you can say about Roy in his tenure at UNC versus his tenure at KU is he has been better at offense. But way worse on defense. Of course he has won 3 NC's at UNC and that is certainly significant. But what the DPPI does is measures the average team over the long term and Roy was significantly better at Kansas than he has been at UNC.
Bill wins the award for best team which was the 2020 team that edged out the 1997 team in 2nd. Bill also gets the award for best defensive team which again was the 2020 team and by a good amount. Last season's team was really special defensively. Bill also gets the award for the best offensive team which was also last season's team which just barely edged out the 1997 team. Now bear in mind, the DPPI offensive rating is a rating of efficiency not explosiveness. Efficiency is the PPP. Last season's team was not as explosive as the 1997 team but more efficient.
As an aside, and something that is sort of interesting. The two worst offensive teams going back to 1985 are...are you ready for this? The 1988 National Championship team was the least offensively efficient team at KU since 1985 and the 2nd worst is this season. 1987, 1989 and 1999 round out the bottom 5. So how the heck did we win a national championship with a team that couldn't score? I'll give a 2 word answer. The 1st word is "MANNING". The 2nd word is "DEFENSE". That 1988 team was anemic offensively, but they were also the 5th best defensive team behind 2020 (great team), 2008 (great team), 1991 (great team) and 2012 (great defensive team). Notice anything in common about these great defensive teams. Two (1988, 2008) won national championships, one (2012) lost to a juggernaut in the 2012 National Championship game, one (2020) was the odds on favorite to win a National Championship and the final one (1991) lost a heartbreaker to Duke in the 1991 National Championship game. Is it any coincidence that the 5 best defensive teams at Kansas in the last 36 years, all played in a National Championship (or likely would have in the case of 2020) games? I think not. So this season, this team is currently ranked 22nd. But if you took the last 9 games, this team this season would rank 4th over the last 36 years and essentially the same as the 1991 and 2012 teams. But there still is this pesky little problem of offense. Even in the last 9 games their offense has been essentially the same as the season average (1.056 for the last 9 games vs. 1.049 for the season). But defense travels and this team is getting better faster on defense than any KU team I can remember. That is certainly a note for optimism.
Also, if you would like to view all kinds of cool stuff, you can go to DPPI Site . It has my DPPI, the Jayhawk stats, the Big 12 stats and projection, the NCAA Tourney projections, the KU Player Ratings and more.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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