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predictions for Texas game

  • asteroid
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4 days 20 hours ago #26406 by asteroid
Another crucial game.  A loss today, coupled with a projected loss on Saturday
might well drop Kansas out of the polls again.  We don't want that to happen.
The earlier game in Lawrence surely looms in the backs of Jayhawks fans' minds.
How do you overcome a 25 point deficit, especially on the road?  Well, Kansas
has a positive trend, Texas has a negative trend, Texas has some team chemistry
issues, and the Longhorns would need lightning to strike twice to hit 46 percent
of their treys, especially if they attempt 26 of them again.  It seems more
likely that Kansas could repeat its own three-point shooting percentage of just
13 percent, but the defensive intensity has ramped up in recent games to
compensate for offensive inconsistency.  Texas isn't exactly a picture of
consistency themselves, ranking 7th in the conference at 10.2 points, but since
that statistical outlier in Lawrence back in January, Texas has played ALL of
their conference games within 9 points of expectation.  So don't expect a repeat
of the January debacle.

Most of the prognosticators favor Texas in the game, but there are four that
favor Kansas, namely Sagarin Predictor, Sagarin Eigenvector, Dunkel, and
common opponents, the last two of these being the most optimistic with the
Jayhawks favored by 3.5 points.  RealTime, with its huge home court advantage,
is the pessimist, favoring Texas by 11 points.  The average is a mere 1.53
points in favor of Texas, with a scatter of 3.2 points.  That's a one-possession
game.

Texas has played below expectation in seven of their last eight games.  Kansas
has played above expectation in six of their last seven games.  The trend favors
the Jayhawks.  Mental toughness favors Texas, but I do wonder what effect the
Jones/Ramey situation might have on team chemistry.

Kansas is back up to a 16 in the NET, justifying a 4 seed in the Big Dance,
right behind West Virginia and just ahead of Texas Tech, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

And hurrah, Kansas is back in Seven Overtimes' Top 100.  (Sarcasm.)  Meanwhile,
Seven Overtimes has Texas ranked #5.  Hmm...  Favoritism at work here?  Or just
a lousy algorithm?  The next lowest ranking for Kansas is #35 by both RealTime
and Baker Bradley-Terry, according to the Massey composite.

The LRMC is finally on board for this season.  It's not uncommon for them to
wait until it is almost time for the postseason, so no real surprise it took
this long.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UT      KU      Defensive Stats      UT      KU
Points/Game         75.7    73.0     Opp Points/Game     68.5    66.5
Avg Score Margin    +7.2    +6.5     Opp Effective FG %  45.9    47.4
Assists/Game        13.1    13.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.1    10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.5    37.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.4    25.0
Effective FG %      52.7    49.8     Blocks/Game          3.9     4.0
Off Rebound %       31.0    30.7     Steals/Game          6.6     6.7
FTA/FGA            0.329   0.295     Personal Fouls/Gm   20.5    15.7
Turnover %          16.6    15.2

Kansas has the advantage in just two of the eight offensive categories
but in five of the seven defensive categories.

My Stats Comparison        KU             UT
===================   =============   ============
Performance           -0.56 (7)       +1.58 (2)
Inconsistency         11.49 (10)      10.23 (7)
Trend                 +0.19 ± 0.37    -0.74 ± 0.40
Mental toughness      -0.49 ± 0.26    +0.09 ± 0.29
Average total pts      139.52 (7)     144.16 (4)

The number in parentheses is the conference ranking.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, three of which Kansas has
played twice (Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma), and three of which both teams
have played twice (Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas State) for which I will
use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us fourteen scores to compare:

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
UT   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     UT   -8 OSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU   +5 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   -1 UT  on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +33 ISU at home (+29 neutral court)     KU  +14 ISU on road (+18 neutral court)
UT   +6 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)     UT   +6 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU  +23 UT  on road (+27 neutral court)     KU  +12 UT  on road (+16 neutral court)

KU  -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
UT   +2 WVU on road ( +6 neutral court)     UT   -2 WVU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  -18 UT  on road (-14 neutral court)     KU  +12 UT  on road (+16 neutral court)

KU   +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
UT   -2 TTU at home ( -6 neutral court)     UT   -2 TTU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +4 UT  on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +7 UT  on road (+11 neutral court)

KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)     KU  +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral court)
UT  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)     UT   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +4 UT  on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +11 UT  on road (+15 neutral court)

KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
UT   -1 OU  at home ( -5 neutral court)     UT   -1 OU  at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU   +1 UT  on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU   -2 UT  on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
UT  -14 BU  at home (-18 neutral court)
KU  +10 UT  on road (+14 neutral court)

KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
KU  -33 UT  on road (-29 neutral court)

Ten of the fourteen comparisons favor Kansas.  The average is 2.50 points in favor of
Kansas, with a scatter of 13.80 points.  Decrease the home court advantage to just
2 points, and the average margin becomes 3.50 points.  Of course, those averages are
depressed by the home game with Texas, in which the Jayhawks were embarrassed.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Matt Coleman (guard)
most points        Andrew Jones (guard)
most rebounds      Greg Brown (forward)
most assists       Matt Coleman (guard)
most steals        Matt Coleman (guard)
most blocks        Greg Brown (forward)
most turnovers     Courtney Ramey (guard)
most fouls         Greg Brown (forward)

Jones and Ramey had a little "extracurricular activity" during a timeout Saturday.
One can wonder how that might affect team chemistry going forward.

                                                          17-7           13-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -0.44   69   69       48       # 11   # 19    # 17   # 30
Sagarin Predictor       +0.39   69   69       51.4     # 11   # 19    # 23   # 30 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -1.21   69   70                # 13   # 19    # 16   # 30 
Sagarin Recent Games    -1.40   68   70                # 24   # 19    # 27   # 30 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +1.31   70   69       55   
Massey                  -1.00   69   70       49       # 10   # 28    # 26   # 33
Pomeroy                 -2.27   68   70                # 22   # 22    # 21   # 36
Greenfield              -3.00   68   71                # 13   #  9    # 15   # 14
Dunkel                  +3.50   69   66                # 18           # 22                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   69   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive      -0.18   70   70       49.4     # 19   # 15    # 28   # 22
Real Time              -11.00   68   79       25.3     # 35   # 32    # 23   # 13 
Seven Overtimes         -5.00   63   68       37       # 94   #  6    #  5   # 11
DPPI                    -0.90   70   71       46.8     # 20   # 23    # 25   # 20
ESPN BPI                -2.20                 41.5     # 19   # 27    # 24   # 22
Whitlock                -2.30                          # 22   # 38    # 19   # 18
Colley Matrix           -2.86                          # 18   # 19    # 13   #  8
NCAA NET                                               # 16           # 23
LRMC                                                   # 15   # 29    # 38   # 41
common opponents        +3.50
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -1.53   68.5 70.2     44.8
scatter                  3.20    1.7  2.9      9.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 18-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -6.74    -5.26
NEUT   #221 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.59    +1.41
NEUT   # 51 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.62    -2.62
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #153 North Dakota State          65  61   +18.23   -14.23
HOME   # 13 Creighton                   73  72    +2.50    -1.50
HOME   #298 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +26.89   +18.11
AWAY   # 17 Texas Tech                  58  57    -0.66    +1.66
HOME   # 16 West Virginia               79  65    +3.13   +10.87
HOME   # 23 Texas                       59  84    +4.37   -29.37
AWAY   # 92 TCU                         93  64    +8.57   +20.43
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    63  59    +3.98    +0.02
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State              70  75    +2.46    -7.46
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -8.37    +0.37
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                    68  75    +0.00    -7.00
HOME   # 92 TCU                         59  51   +12.55    -4.55
AWAY   # 15 Tennessee                   61  80    -0.87   -18.13
HOME   #149 Kansas State                74  51   +18.03    +4.97
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia               79  91    -0.85   -11.15
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State              78  66    +6.44    +5.56
HOME   #133 Iowa State                  97  64   +16.29   +16.71
AWAY   #133 Iowa State                  64  50   +12.31    +1.69
AWAY   #149 Kansas State                59  41   +14.05    +3.95
HOME   # 17 Texas Tech                  67  61    +3.32    +2.68
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 +0.39             0.514
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -4.39             0.331

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #240 UTRGV                       91  55   +21.01   +14.99
NEUT   # 77 Davidson                    78  76    +6.53    -4.53
NEUT   # 29 Indiana                     66  44    +0.41   +21.59
NEUT   # 30 North Carolina              69  67    +0.48    +1.52
HOME   #  9 Villanova                   64  68    -0.85    -3.15
HOME   #182 Texas State                 74  53   +17.55    +3.45
HOME   #179 Sam Houston State           79  63   +17.43    -1.43
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State              77  74    +4.06    -1.06
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                      84  59    -4.37   +29.37
HOME   #133 Iowa State                  78  72   +13.91    -7.91
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia               72  70    -3.23    +5.23
HOME   # 17 Texas Tech                  77  79    +0.94    -2.94
HOME   #149 Kansas State                82  67   +15.65    -0.65
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                    79  80    +1.60    -2.60
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      69  83    -6.77    -7.23
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State              67  75    +0.08    -8.08
AWAY   #149 Kansas State                80  77   +11.67    -8.67
HOME   # 92 TCU                         70  55   +10.17    +4.83
HOME   # 16 West Virginia               82  84    +0.75    -2.75
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                -0.39             0.486
AWAY   # 17 Texas Tech                            -3.04             0.373
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                               -10.75             0.124
AWAY   #133 Iowa State                            +9.93             0.826
AWAY   # 92 TCU                                   +6.19             0.731
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              -2.38             0.410
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, ElectricHawk

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