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latest Big 12 projection

  • asteroid
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6 days 16 hours ago #26396 by asteroid
Of course, the projected number of wins assumes a full 18-game schedule
is played, which now looks to be impossible for a team like Baylor.
Even if the Bears play three games this week AND three games next week,
they'll still fall three games short of a full season.  Oklahoma State
and TCU have played only 11 games, so they would also fall a game short
of a full season if they both play three games this week and next.  Only
Baylor has a third game scheduled this coming week so far.

                       Jan16   Jan24   Jan30   Feb7    Feb14   Feb21
Pred                   Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Proj.   Conf
Rank  Big XII Team     Wins    Wins    Wins    Wins    Wins    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  -------------- -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Baylor           16.0    16.5    16.5    16.8    16.7    16.7     9  0   ISU (Tu)   BU  by 22.7
# 19  Oklahoma          9.9    10.7    11.4    11.1    11.9    12.0     9  4  @KSU (Tu)   OU  by 12.0
# 11  Kansas           11.8    11.0    11.1    10.6    11.3    11.8    11  5  @UT  (Tu)   KU  by  0.3
# 17  West Virginia     9.7    10.0    10.4    11.1    11.3    11.8     8  4  @TCU (Tu)   WVU by  7.5
# 15  Texas Tech       11.1    11.1    10.6    11.1    10.3    10.0     6  6  @OSU (Mo)   TTU bu  1.7
# 23  Texas            11.8    11.8    11.1    10.2    10.5     9.9     7  5   KU  (Tu)
# 40  Oklahoma State    8.5     8.1     8.6     8.6     8.3     8.5     7  6   TTU (Mo)
# 93  TCU               5.6     5.6     5.5     6.4     6.3     5.5     4  7   WVU (Tu)
#148  Kansas State      2.6     2.2     2.1     1.9     1.9     2.6     2 13   OU  (Tu)
#134  Iowa State        3.0     3.0     2.7     2.2     1.5     1.2     0 13  @BU  (Tu)

A little over two-thirds of the way through a normal conference schedule, and we're
already ahead of a full season's worth of road wins.  Clearly the home advantage has
been reduced.  Indeed, given that more than half of the games have featured road wins,
it's consistent with no home court advantage at all.

Road wins (33 out of 63)                  Home losses                                   Diff. RW-HL
----------------------------------------  --------------------------------------------  ---------------
6 Baylor         KSU ISU TCU TTU OSU UT   0 Baylor                                      +6 Baylor        
5 West Virginia  OSU KSU ISU TTU UT       1 Kansas         UT                           +3 Kansas        
4 Kansas         TTU TCU ISU KSU          1 Oklahoma       TTU                          +3 Oklahoma      
4 Oklahoma       TCU UT  WVU ISU          2 West Virginia  UT  OU                       +3 W. Virginia 
4 Texas Tech     OU  ISU UT  KSU          3 Oklahoma State TCU WVU BU                    0 Oklahoma St.
3 Oklahoma State TTU KSU ISU              4 TCU            OU  KU  BU  KSU               0 Texas Tech    
3 Texas          KU  WVU KSU              4 Texas          TT  OU  BU  WVU              -1 Texas         
2 TCU            OSU KSU                  4 Texas Tech     KU  OSU BU  WVU              -2 TCU           
2 Kansas State   ISU TCU                  7 Iowa State     KSU BU  TTU OSU WVU KU  OU   -5 Kansas St.  
0 Iowa State                              7 Kansas State   BU  TCU OSU WVU TTU UT  KU   -7 Iowa St.    

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +4.66    West Virginia     6.89
Texas           +1.53    Oklahoma State    7.10
Oklahoma        +1.39    Baylor            8.28
Texas Tech      +0.53    Texas Tech        8.44
Oklahoma State  +0.48    Kansas State      9.08
West Virginia   +0.29    TCU               9.91
Kansas          -0.46    Texas            10.23
Kansas State    -2.33    Oklahoma         10.61
TCU             -2.43    Iowa State       10.95
Iowa State      -3.81    Kansas           11.49

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Kansas State    +0.26 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma State  +0.22 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +0.19 +/- 0.37    Iowa State      +0.13 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  +0.19 +/- 0.28    Texas           +0.10 +/- 0.29
Oklahoma        +0.16 +/- 0.46    West Virginia   +0.09 +/- 0.24
West Virginia   +0.10 +/- 0.25    Baylor          +0.04 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.01 +/- 0.51    TCU             -0.03 +/- 0.23
Baylor          -0.11 +/- 0.42    Oklahoma        -0.15 +/- 0.24
TCU             -0.44 +/- 0.38    Kansas State    -0.21 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech      -0.44 +/- 0.30    Texas Tech      -0.22 +/- 0.15
Texas           -0.74 +/- 0.40    Kansas          -0.49 +/- 0.26

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          86.76   Baylor          63.06   West Virginia   150.19   Baylor          +23.71
West Virginia   77.81   Texas Tech      63.48   Baylor          149.82   Texas Tech       +9.57
Oklahoma        75.53   Kansas          66.70   Oklahoma State  146.25   Oklahoma         +7.58
Oklahoma State  75.45   Oklahoma        67.95   Texas           144.16   Kansas           +6.13
Texas           74.84   Texas           69.32   Oklahoma        143.47   Texas            +5.53
Texas Tech      73.05   Oklahoma State  70.80   Iowa State      142.44   West Virginia    +5.43
Kansas          72.83   TCU             71.30   Kansas          139.52   Oklahoma State   +4.65
TCU             67.70   West Virginia   72.38   TCU             139.00   TCU              -3.60
Iowa State      65.33   Kansas State    72.52   Texas Tech      136.52   Kansas State    -11.43
Kansas State    61.09   Iowa State      77.11   Kansas State    133.61   Iowa State      -11.78

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Iowa State      83.45 (  5)
West Virginia   82.12 ( 15)
Kansas          81.87 ( 19)
Kansas State    81.07 ( 27)
Texas           80.99 ( 29)
Oklahoma        80.35 ( 35)
Oklahoma State  79.44 ( 49)
Texas Tech      78.61 ( 57)
TCU             78.43 ( 60)
Baylor          76.29 ( 85)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk

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