predictions for Kansas State game

It's been a rough stretch of games.  Not from a difficulty point of view,
however.  Rather, our Strength of Schedule rating has taken a hit, and
when the probability of winning is up around 90 percent, an actual win
allows a team to pick up only 0.1 of a projected win, so Kansas hasn't
been gaining much ground on second-place Oklahoma lately, nor will today's
game help much.

The most pessimistic is Seven Overtimes, who favors Kansas by a single
point.  RealTime, with its enormous home court advantage, is the second-most
pessimistic with just a 9 point margin for Kansas.  The more reliable
prognosticators have it in the 13 point range, with Dunkel being the most
optimistic at 19 points.  Maybe he recalls how the Octagon is really
Allen Field House West.

Just how far out of whack is Seven Overtimes?  Well, to find another team
with 15 victories, you have to go to #87 UNC Greensboro, who accumulated
their 15 wins against the #301 schedule.  Then #68 Chattanooga, who earned
their 15 wins against the #246 schedule.  Then #62 Western Kentucky, who
earned their 15 wins against the #112 schedule.  Only Eastern Kentucky has
as many wins as Kansas but is ranked lower by Seven Overtimes, and only 2
spots lower, and they came against the #278 schedule.  Bashuk must be a
Jayhawk hater and purposely tweaking his algorithm to rank Kansas so low.
He even has TCU ranked higher than Kansas, a team with no wins against the
Sagarin Top 25 (Kansas has 4 such wins).  In Massey's composite, the next
lowest ranking for Kansas is #53, attributed to Kyle Cox.

Anyway, the average has Kansas favored by 13 points.  That stinker in
Ames dropped the Jayhawks' total points average to just 141.95, compared
with 136.05 for Kansas State, which average to 139 points.  The Wildcats'
high water mark came at home against Texas when they scored 77 points.
They've given up triple digits twice, both to Baylor.  What makes this
game hard to predict is the fact that the two consecutive games against
Iowa State went from 161 total points to just 114 total points.  I guess
that's why people like averages so much!  So a 13 point margin in a game
with 139 total points would suggest Kansas 76, Kansas State 63.

Kansas State is coming off of three consecutive above expectation
performances, but those followed a string of five below expectation
games.  Kansas has also had three consecutive above expectation
performances, so both teams have positive trends, but neither is
statistically significant.  Both teams also have negative mental
toughness ratings of some weak significance, but again, that helps
Kansas when playing a weaker opponent.

Less than an hour to tip-off.  Enough chit-chat.  Time to get this posted.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     KSU      KU      Defensive Stats     KSU      KU
Points/Game         62.7    74.0     Opp Points/Game     73.4    68.0
Avg Score Margin   -10.7    +6.0     Opp Effective FG %  55.3    48.2
Assists/Game        13.4    13.9     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.4    10.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   32.6    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.9    25.0
Effective FG %      48.5    49.9     Blocks/Game          1.9     4.0
Off Rebound %       27.0    31.2     Steals/Game          5.0     6.7
FTA/FGA            0.278   0.298     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    15.9
Turnover %          19.7    15.2

Kansas has the advantage in all fifteen categories.  That was easy.

My Stats Comparison        KU             KSU
===================   =============   ============
Performance           -0.60 (7)       -2.66 (9)
Inconsistency         11.88 (10)       8.52 (4)
Trend                 +0.13 ± 0.44    +0.08 ± 0.31
Mental toughness      -0.48 ± 0.27    -0.21 ± 0.18
Average total pts      141.95 (7)     136.05 (10)

The number in parentheses is the conference ranking.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, namely Peyton Manning ("OMAHA!") and the eight other
conference members, four of which Kansas has played twice (Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma,
West Virginia), three of which Kansas State has played twice (Baylor, Texas Tech,
Texas), and one of which both teams have played twice (Oklahoma State) for which I'll
use only the home-home and road-road permutations), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence,
giving us eighteen scores to compare:

KU  +45 Oma at home (+41 neutral court)
KSU  +2 Oma at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +39 KSU on road (+43 neutral court)

KU  +14 ISU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU  +33 ISU at home (+29 neutral court)
KSU  +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KSU  +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU   +1 KSU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +12 KSU on road (+16 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral court)
KSU -31 BU  at home (-35 neutral court)     KSU -48 BU  on road (-44 neutral court)
KU  +27 KSU on road (+31 neutral court)     KU  +36 KSU on road (+40 neutral court)

KU   +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
KSU  -7 TCU at home (-11 neutral court)     KSU  -7 TCU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU  +11 KSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +40 KSU on road (+44 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KSU -11 TTU on road ( -7 neutral court)     KSU -11 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
KU   +8 KSU on road (+12 neutral court)     KU  +16 KSU on road (+20 neutral court)

KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KSU -16 OSU at home (-20 neutral court)     KSU  -7 OSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral court)     KU   -2 KSU on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)     KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
KSU -15 UT  on road (-11 neutral court)     KSU  -3 UT  at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  -22 KSU on road (-18 neutral court)     KU  -26 KSU on road (-22 neutral court)

KU   -7 OU  on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU -26 OU  on road (-22 neutral court)     KSU -26 OU  on road (-22 neutral court)
KU  +15 KSU on road (+19 neutral court)     KU  +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)     KU  -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KSU -22 WVU at home (-26 neutral court)     KSU -22 WVU at home (-26 neutral court)
KU  +32 KSU on road (+36 neutral court)     KU  +14 KSU on road (+18 neutral court)

KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)
KU  +15 KSU on road (+19 neutral court)

As usual, the Texas comparison does not favor Kansas, and ditto for the Oklahoma State
road game.  The other fifteen favor Kansas.  The average is 14.3 points in favor of the
Jayhawks, with a scatter of 18.4 points.  If we reduce the home court advantage to just
2 points, the Oklahoma State road game comparison becomes a wash, and the average margin
in favor of Kansas increases to 16.2 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Mike McGuirl (guard)
most points        Nijel Pack (guard)
most rebounds      Dajuan Gordon (guard)
most assists       Mike McGuirl (guard)
most steals        Nijel Pack (guard)
most blocks        Kaosi Ezeagu (forward)
most turnovers     Dajuan Gordon (guard)
most fouls         Kaosi Ezeagu (forward)

Dajuan Gordon sat out the last game with some sort of foot injury; his status for
today's game hasn't been stated.  Forward Montavious Murphy is expected to miss
the rest of a season due to a knee injury requiring surgery; he was tenth on the
team in minutes played.

                                                          15-7           5-17
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +13.52   73   60       87       # 13   # 12    #156   # 30
Sagarin Predictor      +13.98   74   60       91.2     # 12   # 12    #155   # 30 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +13.16   73   60                # 15   # 12    #153   # 30 
Sagarin Recent Games   +13.97   74   60                # 32   # 12    #218   # 30 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +13.78   73   60       87   
Massey                 +12.00   73   61       89       # 10   # 25    #183   # 41
Pomeroy                +13.15   73   59                # 25   # 20    #190   # 31
Greenfield             +12.50   73   61                # 17   #  7    #171   # 86
Dunkel                 +19.00   80   61                # 22           #238                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.00   73.5 60.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +12.97   75   62       87.7     # 22   # 13    #193   # 94
Real Time               +9.00   77   68       65.2     # 41   # 29    #237   # 11 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   66   65       59       #114   #  6    #198   # 41
DPPI                   +14.40   75   61       85.6     # 25   # 19    #238   # 17
ESPN BPI               +17.00                 93.9     # 24   # 27    #234   # 32
Whitlock               +14.33                          # 26   # 34    #225   # 39
Colley Matrix          +18.22                          # 28   # 18    #211   # 22
NCAA NET                                               # 21           #226
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 96 * #   
common opponents       +16.22                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +13.40   73.8 61.3     82.8
scatter                  3.87    3.0  2.4     12.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is still 17-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -7.46    -4.54
NEUT   #226 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.89    +1.11
NEUT   # 52 Kentucky                    65  62    +5.56    -2.56
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #147 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.65   -13.65
HOME   # 14 Creighton                   73  72    +2.35    -1.35
HOME   #288 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +26.34   +18.66
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  58  57    -1.41    +2.41
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               79  65    +2.98   +11.02
HOME   # 22 Texas                       59  84    +4.13   -29.13
AWAY   # 87 TCU                         93  64    +7.79   +21.21
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                    63  59    +3.51    +0.49
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State              70  75    +2.51    -7.51
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      69  77    -8.86    +0.86
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    68  75    -0.67    -6.33
HOME   # 87 TCU                         59  51   +11.97    -3.97
AWAY   # 11 Tennessee                   61  80    -2.12   -16.88
HOME   #155 Kansas State                74  51   +18.16    +4.84
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia               79  91    -1.20   -10.80
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              78  66    +6.69    +5.31
HOME   #142 Iowa State                  97  64   +16.49   +16.51
AWAY   #142 Iowa State                  64  50   +12.31    +1.69
AWAY   #155 Kansas State                         +13.98             0.912
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                            +2.77             0.605
AWAY   # 22 Texas                                 -0.05             0.498
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -4.68             0.323

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 62 Drake                       70  80    -7.32    -2.68
HOME   # 18 Colorado                    58  76   -12.80    -5.20
HOME   #218 Kansas City(UMKC)           62  58    +6.25    -2.25
HOME   #126 UNLV                        58  68    -1.05    -8.95
Div2        Fort Hays State             68  81
HOME   #228 Milwaukee                   76  75    +7.02    -6.02
AWAY   #142 Iowa State                  74  65    -3.76   +12.76
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      69 100   -20.75   -10.25
HOME   #313 Jacksonville                70  46   +12.75   +11.25
HOME   #288 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           60  58   +10.27    -8.27
HOME   # 87 TCU                         60  67    -4.10    -2.90
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  71  82   -17.48    +6.48
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              54  70    -9.38    -6.62
AWAY   # 22 Texas                       67  82   -16.12    +1.12
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                    50  76   -16.74    -9.26
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               47  69   -13.09    -8.91
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      59 107   -24.93   -23.07
HOME   #127 Texas A&M                   61  68    -1.02    -5.98
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                      51  74   -18.16    -4.84
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  62  73   -13.30    +2.30
HOME   # 22 Texas                       77  80   -11.94    +8.94
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State              60  67   -13.56    +6.56
HOME   # 12 Kansas                               -13.98             0.088
AWAY   # 87 TCU                                   -8.28             0.182
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                             -12.56             0.099
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                        -17.27             0.014
HOME   #142 Iowa State                            +0.42             0.516