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predictions for Oklahoma State game

  • asteroid
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5 months 1 week ago #26131 by asteroid
Some recent games in Stillwater:

1994:  Kansas 59, Oklahoma State 63
1995:  Kansas 69, Oklahoma State 79
2004:  Kansas 60, Oklahoma State 80
2008:  Kansas 60, Oklahoma State 61
2010:  Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 85
2014:  Kansas 65, Oklahoma State 72
2015:  Kansas 62, Oklahoma State 67
2016:  Kansas 67, Oklahoma State 86
2018:  Kansas 64, Oklahoma State 82

I think I read somewhere that Stillwater is the toughest conference location
for Kansas.  What I find interesting about the above is that the Jayhawks
pretty consistently score in the 60s in losing efforts.  That 2010 game is a
bit of an outlier in this regard.  The winning efforts are obviously better,
including a 90 point outpuring in 2017 after three consecutive years of
futility.

Our most optimistic prediction for this year is Colley's 7 points (I'm
ignoring Whitlock's 13 points, because he's still stuck on last season).
Second-most optimistic is the BPI at 4.4 points.  The most reliable
prognosticators all have it in the 3 to 4 point range, and 74 to 70 is
the most common predicted score.  RealTime is the pessimist, predicting
Kansas to lose by 10.  Seven Overtimes is the only other prognosticator
with Kansas on the wrong side of the scoreboard, losing by 5 points.
Recall that RealTime tends to use a large home court advantage.  That's
even less appropriate this season; Sagarin's home court advantage is
still under 2 points.  And the Big 12 has had the road team win two-thirds
of the time in 24 conference games played so far this season, suggesting
a home court DISadvantage.

The average is 2.82 points in favor of Kansas, though with a scatter of
4.6 points.  I've kept Whitlock in this case to offset RealTime, which is
why the scatter is so high.

Kansas game totals have been averaging 143.82 points, while Oklahoma State's
average total is 148.18, which average out to 146 points.  That would make
the score Kansas 75, Oklahoma State 71 if you adopt a 4 point margin.

Kansas has played a number of close games this season.  Then there have
been the blowouts, and both ways; easier on the cardiovascular system
and/or fingernails.

You'll need ESPN+ to watch this one.

Meanwhile, Baylor avoids playing another upper division opponent, at
least for the moment, because there are virus issues with the Mountaineers.
Baylor has already avoided Texas and Gonzaga so far this season.  They've
jumped out to 3 conference road wins, but all against the bottom three
teams in the projected standings.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OSU      KU      Defensive Stats     OSU      KU
Points/Game         77.3    75.8     Opp Points/Game     70.9    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +6.4    +7.8     Opp Effective FG %  46.7    47.2
Assists/Game        13.5    13.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.5    11.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.5    41.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.4    26.6
Effective FG %      51.1    49.9     Blocks/Game          3.5     4.5
Off Rebound %       30.9    33.9     Steals/Game          7.1     6.6
FTA/FGA            0.365   0.328     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.8    16.0
Turnover %          16.5    15.2

Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight offensive stats and in five
of the seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all in conference:

KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
OSU  -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +34 OSU on road (+38 neutral court)

KU  -25 UT  at home (-29 neutral court)
OSU  -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -34 OSU on road (-30 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OSU  +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU   -8 OSU on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
OSU  -3 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +13 OSU on road (+17 neutral court)

These four average 1.25 points in favor of Kansas, though with a large scatter.
If instead we use 2 points for the home court advantage, then the margin in favor
of Kansas increases to 3.25 points, which is remarkably consistent with the
predictions by Sagarin, Massey, Pomeroy, and Greenfield.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points        Cade Cunningham (guard)
most rebounds      Isaac Likekele (guard)
most assists       Cade Cunningham (guard)
most steals        Bryce Williams (guard)
most blocks        Cade Cunningham (guard)
most turnovers     Cade Cunningham (guard)
most fouls         Avery Anderson III (guard)

Guard Donovan Williams sat out the last game for unspecified reasons.  Gaurd
Ferron Flavors Jr. didn't play in the last game due to a finger injury.  Guard
Chris Harris Jr. is out for an unkown amoung of time.  Forward Montreal Pena Jr.
has not been playing for personal reasons.  Of course, as we saw with Oklahoma,
virus protocol can change the available roster on very short notice.

For Kansas, Garrett is back, and Bryce Thompson is day-to-day.

                                                          10-2           8-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.85   74   70       64       #  8   #  8    # 42   # 47
Sagarin Predictor       +3.70   74   70       62.9     #  8   #  8    # 44   # 47 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.12   74   70       64       #  4   #  8    # 43   # 47 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.54   73   71       64       # 13   #  8    # 32   # 47 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +3.58   74   70       63   
Massey                  +3.00   73   70       61       #  5   # 27    # 44   # 38
Pomeroy                 +4.04   72   68                # 12   #  8    # 35   # 60
Greenfield              +3.50   74.5 71                # 12   #  3    # 46   # 43
Dunkel                  +1.00   71.5 70.5              #  9           # 37                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   74   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +3.79   74   70       62.7     # 16   #  4    # 44   # 41
Real Time              -10.00   70   80       30.3     #  8   # 27    # 47   #102 
Seven Overtimes         -5.00   65   70       42       # 39   #  5    # 92   # 40
DPPI                    +1.50   75   73       55.3     # 19   # 23    # 48   # 71
ESPN BPI                +4.40                 65.7     # 15   # 26    # 63   # 59
Whitlock               +12.97 *                        #  1 * #       # 52 * #   
Colley Matrix           +7.07                          #  7   # 13    # 34   # 56
NCAA NET                                               # 13           # 38  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 65 * #   
common opponents        +3.25                                        
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.82   72.7 71.0     57.7
scatter                  4.61    2.6  2.8     11.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Gonzaga                     90 102    -4.24    -7.76
NEUT   #204 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.45    +1.55
NEUT   # 50 Kentucky                    65  62    +6.12    -3.12
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #148 North Dakota State          65  61   +18.42   -14.42
HOME   #  9 Creighton                   73  72    +2.37    -1.37
HOME   #254 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +24.76   +20.24
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  58  57    -0.12    +1.12
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               79  65    +4.71    +9.29
HOME   # 15 Texas                       59  84    +4.18   -29.18
AWAY   # 78 TCU                         93  64    +7.89   +21.11
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma                    63  59    +6.10    -2.10
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +3.71             0.629
HOME   #104 Iowa State                           +14.29             0.893
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                                -6.29             0.294
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma                              +2.26             0.570
HOME   # 78 TCU                                  +11.73             0.830
AWAY   #  4 Tennessee                             -3.57             0.390
HOME   #128 Kansas State                         +16.54             0.917
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                         +0.87             0.532
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +7.55             0.749
AWAY   #104 Iowa State                           +10.45             0.818
AWAY   #128 Kansas State                         +12.70             0.857
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +3.72             0.622
AWAY   # 15 Texas                                 +0.34             0.510
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -2.45             0.416

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #174 UT Arlington                75  68   +10.72    -3.72
HOME   #211 Texas Southern              85  65   +17.20    +2.80
AWAY   # 57 Marquette                   70  62    -0.57    +8.57
HOME   #289 Oakland-Mich.               84  71   +21.66    -8.66
HOME   #127 Oral Roberts                83  78   +10.89    -5.89
AWAY   # 63 Wichita State               67  64    +0.78    +2.22
HOME   # 78 TCU                         76  77    +6.10    -7.10
AWAY   # 15 Texas                       74  77    -5.29    +2.29
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  82  77    -5.75   +10.75
HOME   # 17 West Virginia               84  87    -0.92    -2.08
AWAY   #128 Kansas State                70  54    +7.07    +8.93
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                -3.71             0.371
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma                              +0.47             0.520
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                         -4.76             0.218
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -8.08             0.134
AWAY   #104 Iowa State                            +4.82             0.749
HOME   # 12 Arkansas                              -2.26             0.402
AWAY   # 78 TCU                                   +2.26             0.606
HOME   # 15 Texas                                 -1.45             0.442
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                                -7.55             0.251
HOME   #128 Kansas State                         +10.91             0.919
HOME   #104 Iowa State                            +8.66             0.886
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                               -11.92             0.051
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            -1.91             0.404
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma                              -3.37             0.356
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, ElectricHawk, jaythawk1

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