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predictions for Oklahoma game

  • asteroid
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1 week 3 days ago #26119 by asteroid
Which Jayhawk team will show up for today's game?  The one that played 20 points
above expectation against Omaha (Peyton Manning:  "OMAHA!"), the one that played
21 points above expectation against TCU, the one that played 14 points below
expectation against North Dakota State, or the one that played 29 points below
expectation against Texas?  Talk about Jekyll and Hyde!  This is the least
consistent Jayhawk team in recent memory and the least consistent team in the
Big 12 by almost 3 points.

Ironically, the various predictions for today's game are perhaps the most
consistent I've seen this season.  They all predict a Kansas victory, even
Sagarin eigenvector, which is the second-most optimistic with a 13.7 point
margin.  The most optimistic is the common opponent comparison, which includes
three conference opponents, the least favorable of which is still a 14 point
margin, but the average is 19.3 points.  The most pessimistic is Dunkel, who
has Kansas by just 4 points.  The average is 7.6 points, with a scatter of 3.8
points.

Kansas is averaging a point total of 146.0 per game, while Oklahoma is
averaging a bit more than that at 150.9 points.  Those average to 148.4 points,
suggesting a final score of around 78 to 71, though the prognosticators have
it at slightly less than that on average.

Seven Overtimes finally elevated Gonzaga to the #1 position.  A 2-0 Siena team
is #2, while a 1-0 Hawaii team is #4.  See why I say Seven Overtimes isn't ready
for Prime Time?

With the large inconsistency for the Jayhawks, however, don't be surprised at
something totally different.  The Sooners are the third-least consistent team
in the Big 12, but right at the national average.  Some of that inconsistency
might be attributable to injuries, but Garrett has been out for just one game.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OU      KU      Defensive Stats      OU      KU
Points/Game         79.4    77.1     Opp Points/Game     71.4    68.9
Avg Score Margin    +8.0    +8.2     Opp Effective FG %  50.0    47.5
Assists/Game        15.3    13.9     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.6    12.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.7    41.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.4    26.4
Effective FG %      51.8    49.5     Blocks/Game          3.6     4.3
Off Rebound %       29.5    35.0     Steals/Game          7.1     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.308   0.323     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.6    16.2
Turnover %          13.8    14.6

Kansas has the advantage in four of the eight offensive stats and in five
of the seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, all in conference:

KU  +29 TCU on road (+33 neutral court)
OU   +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  +29 OU  at home (+25 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
OU   -2 TTU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +15 OU  at home (+11 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)
OU   +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU  +14 OU  at home (+10 neutral court)

These three average 19.33 points in favor of Kansas.  Surprisingly large margin.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Austin Reeves (guard)
most points        Austin Reeves (guard)
most rebounds      Austin Reeves (guard)
most assists       Austin Reeves (guard)
most steals        Elijah Harkless (guard)
most blocks        Kur Kuath (forward)
most turnovers     Austin Reeves (guard)
most fouls         Victor Iwuakor (forward)

Austin Reeves would appear to be the key.

Don't expect Bryce Thompson to play.  The big question is, will Marcus Garrett play?

                                                           9-2           6-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +6.82   77   70       73       #  8   # 13    # 36   # 73
Sagarin Predictor       +6.47   77   70       68.4     #  8   # 13    # 35   # 73 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.14   77   70       73       #  5   # 13    # 33   # 73 
Sagarin Recent Games    +7.45   77   70       73       # 13   # 13    # 43   # 73 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +13.68   80   67       87   
Massey                  +7.00   75   68       75       #  6   # 32    # 35   # 59
Pomeroy                 +4.88   74   69                # 12   #  8    # 44   # 81
Greenfield              +6.50   75.5 69                # 12   #  4    # 37   # 31
Dunkel                  +4.00   73.5 69.5              #  9           # 40                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.00   75.5 68.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +7.12   78   71       72.5     # 14   #  5    # 43   # 38
Real Time               +9.00   81   72       67.9     # 12   # 39    # 71   #107 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   70   66       71       # 72   #  8    #102   #119
DPPI                    +5.76   78   72       69.0     # 25   # 41    # 49   #106
ESPN BPI                +4.60                 66.8     # 14   # 30    # 29   # 33
Whitlock               +10.69 *                        #  1 * #       # 36 * #   
Colley Matrix           +4.56                          # 14   # 36    # 48   #114
NCAA NET                                               # 14           # 50  
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 40 * #   
common opponents       +19.33                                   
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.56   76.3 69.4     72.4
scatter                  3.80    2.8  1.7      5.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -4.35    -7.65
NEUT   #200 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +20.06    +1.94
NEUT   # 56 Kentucky                    65  62    +7.20    -4.20
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #148 North Dakota State          65  61   +18.28   -14.28
HOME   # 11 Creighton                   73  72    +2.49    -1.49
HOME   #255 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +24.80   +20.20
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  58  57    +0.51    +0.49
HOME   # 15 West Virginia               79  65    +4.35    +9.65
HOME   # 14 Texas                       59  84    +4.25   -29.25
AWAY   # 80 TCU                         93  64    +7.63   +21.37
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                              +6.39             0.684
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +4.10             0.637
HOME   # 94 Iowa State                           +13.21             0.863
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -6.13             0.307
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                              +2.51             0.575
HOME   # 80 TCU                                  +11.51             0.815
AWAY   #  5 Tennessee                             -3.58             0.394
HOME   #126 Kansas State                         +16.19             0.903
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         +0.47             0.516
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +7.98             0.753
AWAY   # 94 Iowa State                            +9.33             0.780
AWAY   #126 Kansas State                         +12.31             0.839
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                            +4.39             0.638
AWAY   # 14 Texas                                 +0.37             0.511
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -2.25             0.426

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 87 Central Florida(UCF)                  +4.31             0.652
HOME   #275 UTSA                       105  66   +21.72   +17.28
AWAY   # 80 TCU                         82  78    +3.18    +0.82
AWAY   # 45 Xavier-Ohio                 77  99    -0.85   -21.15
HOME   #262 Florida A&M                 85  54   +20.87   +10.13
HOME   #127 Oral Roberts                79  65   +12.02    +1.98
HOME   #338 Houston Baptist             84  65   +28.09    -9.09
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  67  69    -0.06    -1.94
HOME   # 15 West Virginia               75  71    -0.10    +4.10
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                      61  76   -10.58    -4.42
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                                -6.39             0.316
HOME   # 80 TCU                                   +7.06             0.751
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        -0.35             0.484
HOME   #126 Kansas State                         +11.74             0.881
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                -2.51             0.425
AWAY   # 14 Texas                                 -4.08             0.364
HOME   # 20 Alabama                               +0.46             0.517
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                            -3.94             0.347
HOME   # 94 Iowa State                            +8.76             0.822
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -6.70             0.242
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         -3.98             0.323
HOME   # 14 Texas                                 -0.20             0.493
AWAY   # 94 Iowa State                            +4.88             0.697
AWAY   #126 Kansas State                          +7.86             0.785
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +3.53             0.653
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1

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