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latest Big 12 projection

  • asteroid
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1 week 4 days ago #26118 by asteroid
Baylor has opened up a commanding three-game lead in the projected standings.

                      Jan2    Curr.
Pred                  Proj.   Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------  ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Baylor          14.6    15.4     3  0  @TCU (Sa)   BU  by 11.8
#  8  Kansas          13.2    12.2     3  1   OU  (Sa)   KU  by  6.4
# 14  Texas           10.4    11.7     3  0  @WVU (Sa)              
# 15  West Virginia   10.7    10.7     2  2   UT  (Sa)   WVU by  1.8
# 16  Texas Tech      11.1    10.1     2  2  @ISU (Sa)   TTU by  6.9
# 34  Oklahoma         8.9     9.6     2  2  @KU  (Sa)              
# 50  Oklahoma State   6.8     7.5     1  3  @KSU (Sa)   OSU by  6.3
# 80  TCU              6.4     6.3     2  2   BU  (Sa)              
# 94  Iowa State       3.7     3.4     0  4   TTU (Sa)              
#126  Kansas State     4.2     3.1     1  3   OSU (Sa)              

Road wins are still way ahead of normal.

Road wins (12 out of 19)                  Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------  ---------------------------------------  --------------------
2 Baylor         KSU ISU                  0 Baylor                                 +2 Baylor        
2 Kansas         TTU TCU                  0 Texas                                  +1 Kansas        
2 TCU            OSU KSU                  0 West Virginia                          +1 Texas         
1 Kansas State   ISU                      1 Kansas         UT                      +1 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       TCU                      1 Oklahoma       TTU                      0 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma State TTU                      2 Iowa State     KSU BU                   0 TCU           
1 Texas          KU                       2 Kansas State   BU  TCU                 -1 Oklahoma State
1 Texas Tech     OU                       2 Oklahoma State TCU WVU                 -1 Kansas State  
1 West Virginia  OSU                      2 TCU            OU  KU                  -1 Texas Tech    
0 Iowa State                              2 Texas Tech     KU  OSU                 -2 Iowa State    

Two games against conference opponents had Baylor scoring only in the 70s and
winning by a margin only in the teens.  That brought down their performance statistic
significantly.  Meanwhile, a lopsided loss and a lopsided win has Kansas with the
conference's worst consistency rating by a wide margin.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +6.46    West Virginia     5.35
Texas           +4.08    Oklahoma State    6.29
Texas Tech      +0.99    Iowa State        7.59
Oklahoma State  +0.47    Baylor            7.79
West Virginia   +0.09    Kansas State      8.73
Oklahoma        -0.25    Texas Tech        8.83
Kansas          -0.32    TCU               9.77
TCU             -2.09    Oklahoma         11.04
Kansas State    -3.50    Texas            12.43
Iowa State      -3.98    Kansas           15.27

At least Kansas has a good trend, though not statistically significant.
Mental toughness statistic isn't great, but also not statistically significant.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +2.13 +/- 0.92    Texas           +0.43 +/- 0.42
Kansas          +1.08 +/- 1.74    Oklahoma State  +0.42 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    +0.72 +/- 0.84    Iowa State      +0.20 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State  +0.27 +/- 0.73    TCU             +0.11 +/- 0.30
West Virginia   -0.30 +/- 0.46    Baylor          +0.08 +/- 0.22
Texas           -0.32 +/- 1.45    Kansas State    -0.13 +/- 0.28
TCU             -0.84 +/- 0.81    West Virginia   -0.22 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma        -0.96 +/- 1.48    Oklahoma        -0.33 +/- 0.30
Baylor          -1.27 +/- 0.79    Texas Tech      -0.36 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech      -1.45 +/- 0.62    Kansas          -0.48 +/- 0.55

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          90.60   Texas Tech      59.00   Baylor          153.60   Baylor          +27.60
Oklahoma        78.78   Baylor          63.00   Oklahoma        150.89   Texas Tech      +13.75
Oklahoma State  78.00   Texas           64.10   Oklahoma State  150.60   Texas           +10.90
Kansas          76.50   TCU             69.17   Kansas          146.00   Kansas           +7.00
West Virginia   75.50   West Virginia   69.33   West Virginia   144.83   Oklahoma         +6.67
Texas           75.00   Kansas          69.50   Iowa State      141.75   West Virginia    +6.17
Texas Tech      72.75   Kansas State    71.73   TCU             139.25   Oklahoma State   +5.40
TCU             70.08   Oklahoma        72.11   Texas           139.10   TCU              +0.92
Iowa State      68.50   Oklahoma State  72.60   Kansas State    136.64   Iowa State       -4.75
Kansas State    64.91   Iowa State      73.25   Texas Tech      131.75   Kansas State     -6.82

Schedule strengths are improving across the board, as usual once conference play
starts.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          81.56 ( 13)
West Virginia   80.61 ( 21)
Iowa State      79.78 ( 35)
Texas           78.84 ( 45)
Oklahoma State  78.68 ( 47)
Oklahoma        77.25 ( 75)
TCU             75.58 (102)
Kansas State    75.57 (103)
Baylor          71.64 (187)
Texas Tech      70.43 (226)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk

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