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Big 12 projection, Round 5

  • asteroid
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5 years 3 months ago #1868 by asteroid

The Jayhawks squandered a 19 point lead late in the game, and because Sagarin Predictor
is based on margin of victory, that 15 point below expectation performance really hurt
Kansas, dropping them to #3.  Meanwhile, West Virginia's as-expected showing in Norman
solidified their Predictor rating.  The Mountaineers have now taken over first place in
the projected standings marginally over Kansas.  No other changes.

Big Monday features Round 6's best game, with Oklahoma at Iowa State.  We could use a
little Hilton Magic if we don't want to share the conference championship three ways.
A road win by Kansas in Stillwater would probably be enough to reclaim first place in
the projected standings, as it is somewhat more difficult a game than West Virginia's
home game with Texas, which is otherwise the ugly game of the Round.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18    4  1   UT  (We)   WV  by 12.9
#  3  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17    4  1  @OSU (Tu)   KU  by 10.1   projected road win
#  5  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91    4  1  @ISU (Mo)   OU  by  1.8   projected road win
# 26  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84    4  1   KSU (We)   BU  by  7.1
# 24  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24    2  3   OU  (Mo)   
# 39  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68    3  2  @WV  (We)   
# 44  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27    1  4  @BU  (We)   
# 52  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79    1  4  @TCU (Mo)   TT  by  3.4   projected road win
# 81  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71    1  4   KU  (Tu)
#128  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21    1  4   TT  (Mo)

Pomeroy took honors for best prognostications in Round 5.  Greenfield retains the season
lead marginally over Sagarin.  Real Time is bringing up the rear.  Greenfield is the only
one who correctly picked Iowa State's road win in Manhattan.  A lot of prognosticators
incorrectly thought Texas Texas would prevail at home over Baylor.  Nobody did well
predicting the margin for Kansas over TCU.

Predictions                                                                                               Reality  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  
          Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           
BU  > TT   0.4  -2.0   0.8   1.5  -1.0   2.5  -4.0  -1.2  -2.3  -3.9  -6.0  -1.3  -0.1  -1.9  -3.4  -1.8     3     
KSU > ISU  0.8   2.0   0.3  -1.5   3.5   1.5   5.0   2.5   1.8   0.8   4.0   0.8   0.5   2.3   4.4   2.0   -13     
OU  > WV   2.3   5.0   5.1   6.0   9.5   5.5  13.0   1.6   4.3   4.5   5.0   2.3   1.2   3.0   3.6   2.2     2     
UT  > OSU  7.4   7.0   5.5   7.5   9.5   7.0  17.0   6.6   6.8   6.8   5.0   8.6   7.6   9.4   7.3   6.6     5     
KU  > TCU 22.6  24.0  21.2  21.5  23.5  21.0  27.0  22.5  21.5  18.1  15.0  21.3  24.8  26.6  29.6  25.8     7     

Error       1           1           1           +                                         +     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
           2.6   5.0   2.2   1.5   4.0   0.5   7.0   4.2   5.3   6.9   9.0   4.3   3.1   4.9   6.4   4.8
          13.8  15.0  13.3  11.5  16.5  14.5  18.0  15.5  14.8  13.8  17.0  13.8  13.5  15.3  17.4  15.0
           0.3   3.0   3.1   4.0   7.5   3.5  11.0   0.4   2.3   2.5   3.0   0.3   0.8   1.0   1.6   0.2
           2.4   2.0   0.5   2.5   4.5   2.0  12.0   1.6   1.8   1.8   0.0   3.6   2.6   4.4   2.3   1.6
          15.6  17.0  14.2  14.5  16.5  14.0  20.0  15.5  14.5  11.1   8.0  14.3  17.8  19.6  22.6  18.8

total     34.7  42.0  33.3  34.0  49.0  34.5  68.0  37.2  38.7  36.1  37.0  36.3  37.8  45.2  50.3  40.4
prev      33.2 134.0 135.1 133.0 146.5 134.0 151.0 134.7 140.4 143.7 164.0 145.8 147.0 138.8 151.5 132.8
cumul     67.9 176.0 168.4 167.0 195.5 168.5 219.0 171.9 179.1 179.8 201.0 182.1 184.8 184.0 201.8 173.2
per gm     6.7   7.0   6.7   6.7   7.8   6.7   8.8   6.9   7.2   7.2   8.0   7.3   7.4   7.4   8.1   6.9

Only one road win was projected for Round 5, and Baylor did manage to win a close game in
Lubbock, but Iowa State pulled off a road win in Manhattan, so we're up to 7 road wins so
far this season.  We have three road wins projected for Round 6, which would bring us up
to the long-term average of one in three (10 out of 30), if it transpires.

Road wins ( 7 out of 25)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
2 Baylor          ISU TT              0 Baylor                                 +2 Baylor        
2 West Virginia   KSU TCU             0 Kansas                                 +2 West Virginia 
1 Iowa State      KSU                 0 Oklahoma                               +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas          TT                  0 Texas                                  +1 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma        OSU                 0 West Virginia                           0 Texas         
0 Kansas State                        1 Iowa State      BU                      0 Iowa State    
0 Oklahoma State                      1 Oklahoma State  OU                     -1 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                 1 TCU             WV                     -1 TCU           
0 Texas                               2 Kansas State    WV  ISU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Texas Tech                          2 Texas Tech      KU  BU                 -2 Texas Tech    

The poor showing against TCU has saddled Kansas with a negative trend.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +2.26    Texas Tech        6.23    Texas Tech      +0.28 +/- 0.34    Iowa State      +0.24 +/- 0.17
Kansas          +1.31    Oklahoma          8.06    Oklahoma State  +0.25 +/- 0.49    Oklahoma State  +0.15 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        +1.29    Kansas State      8.32    Kansas State    -0.05 +/- 0.43    Kansas State    +0.10 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech      +0.60    Iowa State        8.79    Texas           -0.06 +/- 0.56    Oklahoma        +0.06 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      +0.36    Kansas            9.23    Kansas          -0.11 +/- 0.52    TCU             +0.01 +/- 0.18
Baylor          +0.29    West Virginia     9.33    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.53    Kansas          -0.08 +/- 0.21
Texas           +0.07    Oklahoma State    9.71    Baylor          -0.25 +/- 0.85    Baylor          -0.13 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    -0.16    TCU              10.38    West Virginia   -0.31 +/- 0.47    Texas Tech      -0.24 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma State  -0.16    Texas            10.97    Iowa State      -0.45 +/- 0.43    West Virginia   -0.33 +/- 0.18
TCU             -0.45    Baylor           11.67    Oklahoma        -0.52 +/- 0.43    Texas           -0.42 +/- 0.27

The Kansas strength of schedule was hurt by playing TCU in Allen Field House, while TCU's
strength of schedule is now in the upper half of Division I.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    ---------------------------
Oklahoma        85.50    West Virginia   64.24    Iowa State      159.47    West Virginia   +19.53    Oklahoma        78.39 (  3)
Iowa State      84.47    Oklahoma State  66.00    Oklahoma        157.19    Kansas          +14.56    Texas           78.34 (  8)
West Virginia   83.76    Kansas State    66.53    Kansas          150.69    Oklahoma        +13.81    Kansas          78.10 ( 11)
Kansas          82.63    Baylor          67.50    West Virginia   148.00    Baylor          +11.06    Iowa State      77.39 ( 16)
Baylor          78.56    Kansas          68.06    Baylor          146.06    Iowa State       +9.47    Texas Tech      76.18 ( 32)
Texas           73.94    Texas Tech      68.25    Texas           143.88    Kansas State     +5.47    Kansas State    75.25 ( 50)
Texas Tech      72.56    TCU             68.29    Texas Tech      140.81    Texas Tech       +4.31    West Virginia   74.71 ( 70)
Kansas State    72.00    Texas           69.94    Kansas State    138.53    Texas            +4.00    Oklahoma State  73.47 (117)
Oklahoma State  69.65    Oklahoma        71.69    TCU             137.24    Oklahoma State   +3.65    Baylor          73.32 (124)
TCU             68.94    Iowa State      75.00    Oklahoma State  135.65    TCU              +0.65    TCU             73.23 (128)
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The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, ElectricHawk

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