predictions for Texas game

All together now:  I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS!

I wish I could prepare these summaries the evening before.  Then it wouldn't be
so bad.  But a lot of the usual prognosticators don't have their predictions up
the evening before, so for the most complete summary, I need to wait, sometimes
until nearly tipoff for web sites like Dunkel's.  Fortunately, Sagarin has
already updated his ratings with Friday's games, and Dunkel has his predictions
up as well, so I can prepare the summary now and not get up quite so early.
Still, it'll be a short night of sleep, and even shorter if I make this too
long.

Would you believe that Colley has Missouri as his #1 team?

Meanwhile, Seven Overtimes finally moved Kansas up a bit, from #134 to #104,
while they still have Kansas State at #94.  Yes, the Kansas State that squeaked
past the same Omaha team that Kansas handled by 45.  (Peyton Manning:  OMAHA!!)
As of 12:06 UT, Seven Overtimes has predictions up for only 26 games on
Saturday, and the Kansas game isn't among them.  Perhaps just as well, as
Seven Overtimes hasn't demonstrated it's ready for Prime Time.

ESPN's BPI prediction increased from 3.6 to 3.8 points over the last several
hours.  I assume it's due to the update from Friday's games being included.
Meanwhile, Greenfield's prediction dropped from 4.5 points to 3.5 points.
Go figure why their respective margins would head in opposite directions.

Whitlock is still not on board for this season, so I've flagged his rankings
and prediction with asterisks, as they're really for last year's teams.

Real Time is the optimist of the bunch, giving Kansas a 13 point margin.
Then again, Real Time isn't ready for Prime Time either.  Massey is the
second-most optimistic at 7 points.  Sagarin's various methods run in the
5 to 6 point range, except for the eigenvector analysis, which hasn't been
kind to the Jayhawks all season.  At least it's predicting a win, but by a
single possession.  Pomeroy thinks we'll have a repeat of the Creighton
and Texas Tech games, where the margin was a single point.  Dunkel is the
pessimist, picking the Longhorns.  I'm still struggling to figure out
Dunkel, as he has Kansas ranked higher than Texas (#7 to #19), but Texas
rated higher than Kansas (73.234 to 69.122, with #1 Baylor at 77.276 by
way of comparison).  And in fairness, I'm also struggling to understand
Pomeroy's prediction; take away Sagarin's 2 point homecourt advantage,
and Texas would be favored to win, yet Pomeroy has Kansas ranked higher
than Texas, so the Jayhawks ought to be favored on a neutral court and
by at least 2 points at home.

The average is coming out at 3.9 points, excluding Whitlock, with a
scatter of 3.9 points.

As for total points, don't pay any attention to me!  We went from a
game featuring two defensive juggernauts in Kansas and Texas Tech,
which wound up in the 50s, to a game featuring two defensive juggernauts
in Kansas and West Virginia, but it was bombs away for the first half,
and it looked like they were going to go way over the expected total.
Recall how I noted that Kansas games were averaging 145 total points
while West Virginia games were averaging 144 point points, so if you
split the difference, one might have expected a total of 144.5 points.
I said to take the under.  Well, the total was 144 points, so the
under was correct, but just barely, and way more than I expected.
So the Kansas total points average is still 145, while Texas is at
137.25, so splitting the difference checks in at 141.1 points.  With
a 3.9 point margin, let's call it 73 to 69.

12:45 UT update:  Seven Overtimes finally put up a prediction.  Kansas
by 1, 66 to 65, with a 53 percent probability of winning the game.  Oh,
and Kansas is now #102.  This information has been updated in the
table below, but I did not recompute the averages to include it.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UT      KU      Defensive Stats      UT      KU
Points/Game         74.8    77.4     Opp Points/Game     62.5    67.6
Avg Score Margin   +12.2    +9.8     Opp Effective FG %  42.1    45.9
Assists/Game        13.2    14.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.2    12.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.1    42.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.9    27.1
Effective FG %      51.3    50.0     Blocks/Game          4.1     4.2
Off Rebound %       32.4    35.0     Steals/Game          6.2     6.9
FTA/FGA            0.372   0.321     Personal Fouls/Gm   22.8    16.8
Turnover %          16.8    15.2

Kansas has the advantage in five of the eight offensive stats and in five
of the seven defensive categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, yet.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Matt Coleman (guard)
most points        Matt Coleman (guard)
most rebounds      Greg Brown (forward)
most assists       Matt Coleman (guard)
most steals        Matt Coleman (guard)
most blocks        Greg Brown (forward)
most turnovers     Greg Brown (forward), Courtney Ramey (guard)
most fouls         Greg Brown (forward)

Kind of looks like a two-man show.  Put Garrett on Coleman, and that ought to
shut down half of that duo.

Guard Jase Febres is still recovering from off-season knee surgery.

                                                           8-1           7-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.89   72   66       70       #  5   # 20    # 23   # 74
Sagarin Predictor       +5.71   72   66       70.9     #  7   # 20    # 25   # 74 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +6.16   72   66       70       #  4   # 20    # 20   # 74 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.08   72   67       70       #  6   # 20    # 16   # 74 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +2.78   71   68       60   
Massey                  +7.00   71   64       75       #  5   # 41    # 17   # 55
Pomeroy                 +0.78   67   66                #  7   # 18    #  9   # 66
Greenfield              +3.50   70   66.5              #  8   #  5    # 10   # 16
Dunkel                  -4.00   65   69                #  7           # 19                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   70   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +4.20   72   68       64.1     # 10   #  6    # 15   # 13
Real Time              +13.00   83   70       78.1     # 15   #115    #  7   # 71 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   66   65       53       #102   # 12    #  8   # 41
DPPI                    +2.10   73   71       58.3     # 30   # 55    # 25   # 75
ESPN BPI                +3.80                 64.3     # 13   # 35    # 20   # 37
Whitlock               +13.34 *                        #  1 * #       # 56 * #   
Colley Matrix           -1.62                          #  8   # 70    #  5   # 35
NCAA NET                                               #  2 *         # 70 *
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 78 * #   
common opponents                                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.86   71.5 67.3
scatter                  3.91    4.1  1.9

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 20-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -4.00    -8.00
NEUT   #194 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +19.64    +2.36
NEUT   # 55 Kentucky                    65  62    +7.38    -4.38
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #163 North Dakota State          65  61   +19.48   -15.48
HOME   # 12 Creighton                   73  72    +3.66    -2.66
HOME   #244 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           95  50   +24.66   +20.34
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  58  57    +0.11    +0.89
HOME   # 16 West Virginia               79  65    +4.28    +9.72
HOME   # 25 Texas                                 +5.71             0.709
AWAY   # 77 TCU                                   +8.13             0.829
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                              +7.49             0.830
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma State                        +5.45             0.732
HOME   #107 Iowa State                           +14.77             0.877
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -5.87             0.225
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                              +3.59             0.677
HOME   # 77 TCU                                  +12.03             0.920
AWAY   #  4 Tennessee                             -3.68             0.369
HOME   #131 Kansas State                         +16.80             0.859
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia                         +0.38             0.519
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma State                        +9.35             0.856
AWAY   #107 Iowa State                           +10.87             0.803
AWAY   #131 Kansas State                         +12.90             0.796
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +4.01             0.697
AWAY   # 25 Texas                                 +1.81             0.569
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -1.97             0.400

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #250 UTRGV                       91  55   +21.07   +14.93
NEUT   # 87 Davidson                    78  76    +6.73    -4.73
NEUT   # 37 Indiana                     66  44    +1.19   +20.81
NEUT   # 30 North Carolina              69  67    +0.59    +1.41
HOME   #  8 Villanova                   64  68    -1.04    -2.96
HOME   #244 Texas State                 74  53   +20.79    +0.21
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                                -9.78             0.147
HOME   #239 Sam Houston State           79  63   +20.38    -4.38
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State              77  74    +5.62    -2.62
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -5.72             0.290
HOME   #108 Iowa State                           +11.12             0.903
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         -3.44             0.333
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +0.42             0.518
HOME   #129 Kansas State                         +12.79             0.912
AWAY   #108 Iowa State                            +7.14             0.798
AWAY   # 75 TCU                                   +4.26             0.681
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma                              +3.81             0.632
AWAY   # 56 Kentucky                              +1.58             0.538
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -5.80             0.258
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State                        +1.64             0.581
AWAY   #129 Kansas State                          +8.81             0.825
HOME   # 75 TCU                                   +8.24             0.819
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma                              -0.17             0.494
HOME   # 15 West Virginia                         +0.54             0.527
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -1.74             0.433
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                            -3.56             0.350