Big 12 projection

Normally, this is the time of year when I look at the Sagarin Predictor ratings for ten Big 12 teams that
have all played 12 non-conference games, and project what the conference standings would look like
at the end of the conference season.  With 12 games under their belts, the teams are well-connected,
and the ratings unbiased by the previous season.  This season, the average Division I team has only
played 6 games so far, and some of those have already been conference games, meaning it's even
less likely that the teams are connected.  That means the ratings are less reliable, and the
inconsistency factors can be a little wonky.  With those caveats in mind, here is the current projection,
assuming an inconsistency factor of 11 points for all teams.

                       Curr.
Pred                   Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team     Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  Baylor           14.6     1  0  @ISU (Sa)   BU  by 14.9
#  7  Kansas           13.2     2  0   UT  (Sa)   KU  by  5.7
# 14  Texas Tech       11.1     1  1   OSU (Sa)   TTU by  7.2
# 15  West Virginia    10.7     1  1  @OU  (Sa)   WVU by  1.3
# 23  Texas            10.4     1  0  @KU  (Sa)              
# 45  Oklahoma          8.9     1  1   WVU (Sa)              
# 57  Oklahoma State    6.8     0  2  @TTU (Sa)              
# 75  TCU               6.4     1  1  @KSU (Sa)   TCU by  2.6
#129  Kansas State      4.2     1  1   TCU (Sa)              
#108  Iowa State        3.7     0  2   BU  (Sa)              

Sagarin's home court advantage is currently under 2 points, way under what it normally is,
suggesting that the sparse attendance, if allowed at all, is having an equalizing effect.
Still, there is some familiarity with the rims, and sometimes there are passionate fans in
the stands, so the home court advantage hasn't been entirely neutralized.  The implication
here is that I'm expecting more road wins this season than usual.  Normally we see the
road team winning one-third of the time, or 30 road wins out of 90 conference games
played.  If there were zero home court advantage, that number would jump to 45 road wins.
I'm expecting we'll end the conference season with the number of road wins somewhere
between 35 and 40.  We've already had 6 road wins in just 9 games played.

Road wins ( 6 out of  9)                       Home losses                      Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------------  -------------------------------  --------------------
1 Baylor         KSU                           0 Baylor                         +1 Baylor        
1 Kansas         TTU                           0 Kansas                         +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas State   ISU                           0 Texas                           0 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma       TCU                           0 West Virginia                   0 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            OSU                           1 Iowa State     KSU              0 TCU           
1 Texas Tech     OU                            1 Kansas State   BU               0 Texas         
0 Iowa State                                   1 Oklahoma       TTU              0 Texas Tech    
0 Oklahoma State                               1 Oklahoma State TCU              0 West Virginia 
0 Texas                                        1 TCU            OU              -1 Iowa State    
0 West Virginia                                1 Texas Tech     KU              -1 Oklahoma State

Baylor has been winning by an average of 31 points.  Sagarin clearly downweights blowout
wins, because Baylor is performing above expectation by 8 points.  Too few games have
been played to put much stock in the inconsistency values.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +8.03    West Virginia     5.88
Texas           +2.83    Oklahoma State    5.98
Texas Tech      +1.96    Iowa State        7.28
Kansas          +0.36    Baylor            8.11
Oklahoma        +0.32    TCU               8.41
Oklahoma State  +0.04    Texas Tech        8.87
West Virginia   +0.02    Kansas State      9.23
TCU             -1.07    Texas             9.64
Kansas State    -4.78    Kansas           11.02
Iowa State      -5.56    Oklahoma         12.82

Saturday's game between Kansas and Texas features the two teams at opposite extremes
of the trend statistic.  Kansas has been heading in the right direction.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Kansas          +2.41 +/- 1.55    Oklahoma State  +0.37 +/- 0.24
Iowa State      +1.72 +/- 1.74    TCU             +0.40 +/- 0.26
Kansas State    +0.95 +/- 1.22    Baylor          +0.24 +/- 0.25
TCU             -0.38 +/- 0.97    Iowa State      +0.09 +/- 0.21
West Virginia   -0.45 +/- 0.67    Texas            0.00 +/- 0.40
Oklahoma State  -0.56 +/- 0.97    West Virginia   -0.13 +/- 0.27
Baylor          -1.52 +/- 1.20    Kansas State    -0.30 +/- 0.31
Texas Tech      -1.52 +/- 0.89    Texas Tech      -0.32 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -2.12 +/- 2.48    Kansas          -0.33 +/- 0.41
Texas           -2.23 +/- 1.32    Oklahoma        -0.43 +/- 0.44

Baylor has been AVERAGING 94 points per game.  Yikes.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          94.25   Texas Tech      55.10   Baylor          157.25   Baylor          +31.25
Oklahoma        81.86   Baylor          63.00   Oklahoma        153.57   Texas Tech      +16.70
Oklahoma State  76.75   Texas           63.75   Oklahoma State  147.00   Oklahoma        +10.14
Kansas          76.62   TCU             67.70   Kansas          145.00   Texas            +9.75
West Virginia   74.40   West Virginia   67.70   West Virginia   142.10   Kansas           +8.25
Texas           73.50   Kansas          68.38   Iowa State      140.50   West Virginia    +6.70
Texas Tech      71.80   Oklahoma State  70.25   TCU             138.70   Oklahoma State   +6.50
TCU             71.00   Kansas State    71.11   Texas           137.25   TCU              +3.30
Iowa State      68.50   Oklahoma        71.71   Kansas State    135.89   Iowa State       -3.50
Kansas State    64.78   Iowa State      72.00   Texas Tech      126.90   Kansas State     -6.33

Texas Tech, once again, played a cupcake non-conference schedule, while Kansas was out
there testing itself.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          80.85 ( 18)
West Virginia   79.58 ( 39)
Texas           77.19 ( 72)
Oklahoma State  75.95 ( 96)
Iowa State      74.00 (145)
TCU             73.68 (152)
Kansas State    72.91 (171)
Oklahoma        72.53 (181)
Baylor          69.22 (251)
Texas Tech      68.30 (280)