predictions for Omaha game

At the risk of sounding like Peyton Manning, OMAHA!

The Mavericks are 2-4 on the season, but their two wins have come by
a mere 3 points, and against lackluster competition at that.  We have
Creighton as a common opponent, and the Bluejays handled them easily
by 27 points.  Omaha has played above expectation in only one game,
and they needed both of those above-expectation points to eke out a
one-point win over Middle Tennessee.  They've been extremely consistent
so far, with their worst performance being a hair under 11 points below
expectation against Drake, so WAY more consistent than the national
average.  Kansas is also more consistent than the national average,
the worst performance being around 12 points below expectation against
North Dakota State.  Because of that consistency, on the part of both
teams, the projected margin of almost 22 points (Sagarin Predictor)
is up around 4 standard deviations, making the probability of winning
the game round up to 100 percent, at the tenth of a percent precision
level.

Dunkel is the most optimistic at 26.5 points, while Sagarin's eignevector
analysis is once again treating the Jayhawks poorly, giving them a mere
8 point margin.  Colley is now on board for this season, and is the
second-most pessimistic with just a 10 point margin, using this season's
ratings but last season's scaling factor to convert ratings units to
points.  But I'd take Colley's ratings with several grains of salt, as
he has Omaha with the more difficult schedule (#66 compared to Kansas'
#229, which is ridiculous; we've both played Creighton, so that's a
wash, though we did it at home while Omaha did it on the road, sort of,
while Gonzaga and Kentucky have to be considered stronger opponents
than Drake and Abilene Christian).  Seven Overtimes is the third-most
pessimistic at just 11 points.  That brought the average down to just
20.3 points.

One can wonder how many Maverick fans will make the trek from Omaha
like the Bluejay fans did a few days ago.  I wish our cardboard cutouts
came with loudspeakers and amplifiers so the "owners" could make some
noise, perhaps controlled by a smart phone.  Let's hope our real fans
outnumber the cardboard cutouts, which in turn will outnumber the
Maverick fans.  Self wasn't too happy with the number of Creighton
fans who bought tickets on the secondary market; he even offered to
buy tickets that would be otherwise unused.

OMAHA!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Omah    KU       Defensive Stats     Omah    KU
Points/Game         63.7    77.4     Opp Points/Game     74.2    73.8
Avg Score Margin   -10.5    +3.6     Opp Effective FG %  51.7    50.3
Assists/Game         9.0    12.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.2    11.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.8    41.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.5    26.4
Effective FG %      43.8    47.7     Blocks/Game          2.0     3.8
Off Rebound %       23.6    31.5     Steals/Game          7.2     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.331   0.368     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.0    15.6
Turnover %          20.5    14.7

Kansas has the advantage in every category, both offensive and defensive.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Creighton:

KU    +1 Crei at home ( -3 neutral court)
Omah -27 Crei on road (-23 neutral court)
KU   +24 Omah at home (+20 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Ayo Akinwole (guard)
most points        Marlon Ruffin (guard)
most rebounds      Matt Pile (forward)
most assists       Ayo Akinwole (guard)
most steals        Ayo Akinwole (guard)
most blocks        Matt Pile (forward)
most turnovers     Wanjang Tut (forward)
most fouls         Wanjang Tut (forward)

                                                           5-1           2-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Omaha
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +21.34   81   59       94       # 11   # 53    #231   #136
Sagarin Predictor      +21.81   81   59      100.0     # 11   # 53    #242   #136 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +22.43   81   59       94       #  6   # 53    #219   #136 
Sagarin Recent Games   +20.17   80   60       94       # 22   # 53    #225   #136 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +8.17   74   66       76   
Massey                 +22.00   81   59       97       # 13   # 72    #236   #100
Pomeroy                +21.27   82   61                #  9   # 40    #215   #136
Greenfield             +24.00   85   61                # 20   # 18    #246   #133
Dunkel                 +26.50   84   57                #  5           #148                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +24.50   85   61                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +21.52   84   62       96.4     # 28   # 17    #228   #138
Real Time GAMER        +22.00   86   64                #  7   # 71    #243   #142 
Real Time Scouting     +20.00   84   64       91.5     #  7   # 71    #243   #142 
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   77   66       88       #136   # 13    #282   #148
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI               +18.00                 93.2     # 15   # 82    #206   # 99
Whitlock               +26.22                          #  1 * #       #216 * #   
Colley Matrix          +10.24                          # 64   #229    #230   # 66
NCAA NET                                               #  2 *         #234 *
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       #223 * #   
common opponents       +24.00                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +20.29   81.8 61.2
scatter                  5.29    3.3  2.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Gonzaga                     90 102    -3.31    -8.69
NEUT   #206 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +17.79    +4.21
NEUT   # 34 Kentucky                    65  62    +2.81    +0.19
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #151 North Dakota State          65  61   +16.11   -12.11
HOME   # 24 Creighton                   73  72    +3.01    -2.01
HOME   #242 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +21.82             1.000
HOME   #346 Tarleton State                       +31.56             1.000
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                            -2.13             0.419
HOME   # 12 West Virginia                         +1.75             0.576
HOME   # 17 Texas                                 +2.39             0.593
AWAY   # 90 TCU                                   +7.67             0.792
HOME   # 51 Oklahoma                              +6.65             0.777
AWAY   # 61 Oklahoma State                        +4.02             0.641
HOME   # 75 Iowa State                            +9.44             0.832
AWAY   #  1 Baylor                                -5.38             0.221
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma                              +3.21             0.644
HOME   # 90 TCU                                  +11.11             0.881
AWAY   # 15 Tennessee                             -1.51             0.434
HOME   #131 Kansas State                         +14.81             0.970
AWAY   # 12 West Virginia                         -1.69             0.427
HOME   # 61 Oklahoma State                        +7.46             0.748
AWAY   # 75 Iowa State                            +6.00             0.730
AWAY   #131 Kansas State                         +11.37             0.926
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                            +1.31             0.550
AWAY   # 17 Texas                                 -1.05             0.459
HOME   #  1 Baylor                                -1.94             0.391

Here is Omaha's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #169 Austin Peay                 66  72    -4.38    -1.62
NEUT   #222 Middle Tennessee            60  59    -1.19    +2.19
NEUT   #121 Abilene Christian           58  70    -8.27    -3.73
AWAY   # 24 Creighton                   67  94   -20.53    -6.47
AWAY   #120 Drake                       66  87   -10.03   -10.97
AWAY   #312 SIU-Edwardsville            65  63    +2.89    -0.89
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                               -21.82             0.000