predictions for Creighton game

A lackluster win over North Dakota State, coupled with Kentucky losing to
Georgia Tech, have caused Kansas to drop to #12 in Sagarin Predictor and
#9 in KenPom.  The Jayhawks are still languishing at #239 in the Seven
Overtimes rankings, while Kansas State is way up at #113, despite having
lost yet again, this time to UNLV.  So, a 1-3 record against a mediocre
schedule is ranked over a hundred spots higher than a 4-1 team who has
played a couple of tough opponents.  Go figure.  Maybe North Dakota State
deserved to be ranked higher than they were; the Bison certainly seemed
more deserving of a ranking near where they were last season, around #120.

Anyway, the Big East Big 12 Battle continues today with Kansas facing
Creighton.  So far, things have not gone well for the home team, with
Georgetown losing to West Virginia, Texas losing to Villanova, Marquette
losing to Oklahoma State, Texas Tech's game with St. John's canceled,
and Iowa State's game with DePaul canceled.  We still have TCU hosting
Providence and Xavier hosting Oklahoma on Wednesday.  I assume the games
for Baylor and Kansas State were both victims of the massive rescheduling
caused by the pandemic.

Nevertheless, all the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas in this
game.  Dunkel is the optimist with an 11 point margin, while Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis is once again the pessimist with just a fractional
point margin.  Meanwhile, the single common opponent favors Creighton
by 3 points.

One might think the inconsistency has been high for Kansas so far this
season, but the numbers don't bear that out.  Yes, the Jayhawks played
13 points below expectation against North Dakota State, but the other
Division I games were all closer than the national average of 11 points,
so Kansas enters the game with an 8 point inconsistency.  All three of
Creighton's games have been within 7 points of expectation for an
inconsistency of under 6 points.

At least this game will boost the strength of schedule ranking for
Kansas.  Then it will sag again following the Omaha and Tarleton State
games before conference play will boost all league members' strengths
of schedule.

Creighton may be undefeated, but they haven't really been tested either.
North Dakota State is the best team they've played so far, making it
hard to gauge the Bluejays.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Crei    KU       Defensive Stats     Crei    KU
Points/Game         85.3    78.5     Opp Points/Game     61.0    74.2
Avg Score Margin   +24.3    +4.2     Opp Effective FG %  41.6    49.0
Assists/Game        20.3    11.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      5.0    11.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.7    41.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     29.7    26.8
Effective FG %      59.0    47.8     Blocks/Game          3.7     4.0
Off Rebound %       18.5    32.4     Steals/Game          5.3     7.5
FTA/FGA            0.262   0.396     Personal Fouls/Gm   12.3    16.2
Turnover %           9.9    14.9

Creighton has the advantage in five of the eight offensive stats, and in
four of the seven defensive stats.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely North Dakota State:

KU    +4 NDSU at home (  0 neutral court)
Crei +11 NDSU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU    -3 Crei at home ( -7 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Marcus Zegarowski (guard)
most points        Christian Bishop (forward)
most rebounds      Antwann Jones (guard)
most assists       Marcus Zegarowski (guard)
most steals        Denzel Mahoney (guard)
most blocks        Ryan Kalkbrenner (center)
most turnovers     Marcus Zegarowski (guard)
most fouls         Denzel Mahoney (guard)

Forward Modestas Kancleris and guard Rati Andronikashvili are both out for
the season with torn ACLs.  Guard Alex O'Connell is ineligible to compete
this season.

                                                           4-1           3-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Creighton
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.41   76   73       62       # 12   # 84    # 24   #274
Sagarin Predictor       +3.53   76   73       69.3     # 12   # 84    # 25   #274 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.70   77   72       62       #  5   # 84    # 19   #274 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.52   76   73       62       # 26   # 84    # 31   #274 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +0.77   75   74       53   
Massey                  +6.00   77   71       69       #  9   #103    # 31   #270
Pomeroy                 +1.00   73   72                #  9   # 49    # 15   #271
Greenfield              +4.00   77   73                # 20   # 29    # 13   #254
Dunkel                 +11.00   75.5 64.5              #  4           #162                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.00   77   73                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +2.32   78   76       57.4     # 21   # 39    # 30   #218
Real Time GAMER         +4.00   85   81                #  5   # 36    # 39   #137 
Real Time Scouting      +3.00   84   81       56.2     #  5   # 36    # 39   #137 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   72   70       52       #239   # 24    # 39   #265
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI                +1.30                 54.6     # 14   #122    #  8   #265
Whitlock                +6.58                          #  1 * #       #  8 * #   
Colley Matrix           +8.43                          #  1 * #       # 10 * #   
NCAA NET                                               #  2 *         # 11 *
LRMC                                                   #  2 * #       # 18 * #   
common opponents        -3.00                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.64   77.0 73.3
scatter                  3.10    3.6  4.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 18-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -3.58    -8.42
NEUT   #196 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +16.99    +5.01
NEUT   # 34 Kentucky                    65  62    +3.26    -0.26
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #165 North Dakota State          65  61   +17.07   -13.07
HOME   # 25 Creighton                             +3.53             0.693
HOME   #237 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +21.73             0.988
HOME   #346 Tarleton State                       +31.49             0.999
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                            -2.93             0.395
HOME   # 15 West Virginia                         +2.52             0.602
HOME   # 11 Texas                                 +1.91             0.571
AWAY   # 72 TCU                                   +5.45             0.707
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              +4.59             0.689
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma State                        +2.28             0.578
HOME   # 75 Iowa State                            +9.65             0.825
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -5.41             0.242
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +0.59             0.525
HOME   # 72 TCU                                   +9.45             0.828
AWAY   #  9 Tennessee                             -2.64             0.392
HOME   #141 Kansas State                         +15.23             0.963
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         -1.48             0.440
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma State                        +6.28             0.706
AWAY   # 75 Iowa State                            +5.65             0.708
AWAY   #141 Kansas State                         +11.23             0.906
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                            +1.07             0.539
AWAY   # 11 Texas                                 -2.09             0.422
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -1.41             0.428

Here is Creighton's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #165 North Dakota State          69  58   +15.54    -4.54
HOME   #237 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           94  67   +20.20    +6.80
HOME   #350 Kennesaw State              93  58   +32.38    +2.62
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                                -3.53             0.307