predictions for North Dakota State game

First, a correction.  For the previous game, I had taken the season-to-date
results for Washburn from Massey's web site.  Turns out that Massey had
omitted Washburn's second game against the University of Nebraska-Kearney,
which Washburn won 73 to 62, so the Ichabods were in fact 3-0 instead of
just 2-0.  Also, I was unaware that it was considered an exhibition game
for Washburn while it counted for Kansas.  I didn't realize that a game
could be "for real" in Division I while at the same time being an exhibition
in Division II.  Bizarre.

We've got a double-header today.  We'll segue from the Texas Tech football
game directly into the North Dakota State basketball game.  At least the
former is on the road while the latter is at home, so we won't have a wave
of cardboard cutouts moving en masse from Memorial Stadium to
Allen Field House!

So, Kansas is going from a 3-0 opponent to an 0-3 opponent, yet this game
is expected to be closer than the previous one.  That's the difference
between Division I and Division II.

Yesterday, ESPN's BPI had Kansas as a 22.4 point favorite with a 97.0
percent probability of victory.  Today, that margin has shrunk to just
22.3 points, but the probability of victory has gone UP to 97.1 percent.
Go figure.  That's an indication that the BPI does customize the
inconsistency rather than adopting some historical national average
(which is around 11 points).  Reverse engineering some of these prediction
algorithms can be interesting.

The pessimist of the bunch is Seven Overtimes, who has it as just a
12 point margin, with Kansas ranked way down at #222.  Meanwhile, they
have a 1-2 Kansas State team ranked at #88.  Go figure.  Neither Whitlock
nor Colley are on board for this season so far, yet their predictions,
based on last seasons ratings, when North Dakota State had a 25-8 record,
are way more consistent with the more reliable Sagarin/Pomeroy/Massey
crowd than Seven Overtimes.  Just not ready for prime time.  Neither is
Real Time, who once again shows different predictions on the web page
that shows the entire Kansas schedule and the scouting report link for
this specific game.

Almost as pessimistic is Sagarin's eigenvector analysis, which has been
consistently making less favorable predictions for Kansas in all the
games so far this season.  My speculation is that the eigenvector analysis
is not biased by previous seasons, which would make it less reliable in
the earliest games of a season.  The optimists are Dunkel and Real Time,
who have the margin as high as 29 points (or 30 after you click on
RealTime's "scouting" link).

The various prognostications average 21.4 points with a scatter of
5.2 points.  Score predictions average 81 to 60.  Kansas has been
playing games that average 162 total points, while North Dakota State
has been averaging 124 total points.  The last time there was a big
discrepancy between the teams (Kansas vs. Kentucky), I predicted the
total would be on the high side, and I was way off on that, with
Kansas scoring only 5 points in the first 10 minutes.  I don't expect
the Jayhawks to be so ineffective offensively this game, though the
Bison might struggle to score, keeping the total down.

At least Garrett seemed more energetic against Washburn, which is a
good sign that he's over the hump of that mystery illness.  And
McCormack had a good game against Washburn, which should give him a
needed confidence boost, while also having had a couple more days
for his tweaked knee to recover.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     NDS     KU       Defensive Stats     NDS     KU
Points/Game         54.3    83.0     Opp Points/Game     70.0    78.7
Avg Score Margin   -15.7    +4.3     Opp Effective FG %  49.2    50.0
Assists/Game         9.0    12.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     12.3    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   44.0    40.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     29.7    26.7
Effective FG %      36.9    49.7     Blocks/Game          2.7     3.7
Off Rebound %       31.1    29.7     Steals/Game          3.3     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.240   0.425     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.0    16.3
Turnover %          19.8    15.5

North Dakota State grabs more total rebounds and has a higher offensive
rebound percentage among the eight offensive stats, while Kansas has
more blocks per game and steals per game among the seven defensive stats.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Sam Griesel (guard)
most points        Tyree Eady (guard)
most rebounds      Sam Griesel (guard)
most assists       Sam Griesel (guard)
most steals        Sam Griesel (guard)
most blocks        Grant Nelson (forward)
most turnovers     Tyree Eady (guard)
most fouls         Rocky Kreuser (forward)

The Bison appear to be heavily dependent on Sam Griesel.  Control him, and
you should be able to control the game.

                                                           3-1           0-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      N. Dakota St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +19.78   81   61       92       #  6   # 30    #195   # 34
Sagarin Predictor      +19.82   81   61       99.3     #  6   # 30    #187   # 34 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +19.75   81   61       92       #  4   # 30    #169   # 34 
Sagarin Recent Games   +20.37   81   61       92       # 15   # 30    #229   # 34 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +12.08   77   65       84   
Massey                 +21.00   78   57       97       #  6   # 91    #202   # 19
Pomeroy                +19.94   77   57                #  5   # 20    #198   # 40
Greenfield             +24.00   80   56                # 10   # 16    #201   # 45
Dunkel                 +29.00   87   58                #  4           # 72                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +24.00   80   56                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +16.65   78   61       92.0     #  8   #  2    #166   # 27
Real Time GAMER        +29.00   86   57                #  2   # 12    #181   # 73 
Real Time Scouting     +30.00   89   59       96.0     #  2   # 12    #181   # 73 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   75   63       81       #222   # 11    #312   # 27
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #   
ESPN BPI               +22.30                 97.1     #  9   # 89    #288   # 28
Whitlock               +19.36                          #  1 * #       #121 * #   
Colley Matrix          +24.16                          #  1 * #       #113 * #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +21.37   80.8 59.5
scatter                  5.15    4.0  2.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 19-8,
assuming a win over Division II Washburn:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     90 102    -2.41    -9.59
NEUT   #191 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          94  72   +18.02    +3.98
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    65  62    +2.59    +0.41
Div2        Washburn                    89  54
HOME   #187 North Dakota State                   +19.82             0.993
HOME   # 22 Creighton                             +4.93             0.703
HOME   #239 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +22.92             0.993
HOME   #348 Tarleton State                       +33.14             1.000
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -0.90             0.466
HOME   # 15 West Virginia                         +3.78             0.657
HOME   # 12 Texas                                 +3.20             0.623
AWAY   # 71 TCU                                   +6.69             0.758
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                              +5.41             0.729
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State                        +2.99             0.605
HOME   # 73 Iowa State                           +10.77             0.861
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -4.13             0.283
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              +1.41             0.563
HOME   # 71 TCU                                  +10.69             0.868
AWAY   #  8 Tennessee                             -1.38             0.441
HOME   #120 Kansas State                         +15.16             0.970
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         -0.22             0.491
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State                        +6.99             0.733
AWAY   # 73 Iowa State                            +6.77             0.752
AWAY   #120 Kansas State                         +11.16             0.918
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +3.10             0.615
AWAY   # 12 Texas                                 -0.80             0.469
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -0.13             0.493

Here is North Dakota State's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #101 Nevada                      48  62    -6.27    -7.73
AWAY   #282 Milwaukee                  canceled
AWAY   # 68 Nebraska                    57  79   -11.31   -10.69
AWAY   # 22 Creighton                   58  69   -16.89    +5.89
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -19.82             0.007