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initial season projection

  • asteroid
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1 month 3 weeks ago #25842 by asteroid
Everything about this season just doesn't feel right, meaning it just
isn't normal.  But is there any reason to believe that the Sagarin
starting ratings are any less reliable than in previous, more normal
seasons?  Which isn't to suggest that Sagarin's starting ratings are
ever very accurate, given how heavily biased they are.  Practice and
conditioning have certainly been affected, especially over the summer,
so teams with veterans may be at an advantage over teams with a lot of
new, inexperienced players.

So, with all the usual caveats about the reliability of the Sagarin
starting ratings (or lack thereof), plus the additional pandemic-induced
uncertainties, here is the initial projection for the Kansas Jayhawks.

The sum of the probabilities of victory is 18.732, which after rounding
means 19 wins and 7 losses.  Recall that Sagarin does not rate Division II
teams, so the Washburn game has been excluded from the analysis.  If you
like, you can pencil that one in as an additional victory, suggesting
that Kansas will enter whatever postseason there might be with a 20-7
record.  There are, however, only three projected losses.  The toughest
game is in Waco, where Kansas is a 3 point underdog.  The Jayhawks are
a single point underdog in the season opener against Gonzaga, and the
game in Knoxville is a virtual toss-up, with the Vols having a fractional
point advantage.

Among the projected wins, the game in Morgantown is another toss-up, but
with Kansas having the plus sign, and the Jayhawks are just under a
point better than the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

To compute these probabilities, I'm using whatever inconsistency values
are in my file as of the end of last season rather than starting out
afresh with everybody set to 11, which is close to the national average.
Also, I'm using the home court advantage as of the end of last season,
whereas Sagarin has it set to zero in his starting ratings.

And before somebody responds with "If there are only 3 projected losses,
why is the season record projection 20-7?", keep in mind that if you
play 100 games against opponents that have only a 45 percent probability
of winning, you'll be favored in EVERY game, but the statistics will
say that you'll win only 55 of those 100 games.

With three of the first six games against Top 20 opponents, the strength
of schedule for Kansas should start out pretty high and remain that way
through the conference schedule, with all Big 12 teams in the Top 75.

Here is Kansas' current season, recognizing that changes could happen
pretty much at any time:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -1.03             0.463
NEUT   #195 Saint Joseph's-Pa.                   +20.80             0.971
NEUT   # 12 Kentucky                              +2.99             0.607
Div2        Washburn                          
HOME   #166 North Dakota State                   +21.85             0.977
HOME   # 17 Creighton                             +7.03             0.739
HOME   #199 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +24.17             0.986
HOME   #348 Tarleton State                       +39.63             1.000
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                            +0.97             0.535
HOME   # 16 West Virginia                         +6.45             0.721
HOME   # 23 Texas                                 +8.26             0.774
AWAY   # 61 TCU                                   +6.04             0.709
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              +9.18             0.798
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +4.41             0.656
HOME   # 51 Iowa State                           +11.26             0.847
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                -3.02             0.392
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +2.76             0.599
HOME   # 61 TCU                                  +12.46             0.871
AWAY   # 13 Tennessee                             -0.17             0.494
HOME   # 73 Kansas State                         +13.93             0.897
AWAY   # 16 West Virginia                         +0.03             0.501
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                       +10.83             0.838
AWAY   # 51 Iowa State                            +4.84             0.670
AWAY   # 73 Kansas State                          +7.51             0.753
HOME   # 20 Texas Tech                            +7.39             0.749
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 +1.84             0.566
HOME   #  5 Baylor                                +3.40             0.621
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, wchawk, JayhawkChef, wardhawk, porthawk

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1 month 3 weeks ago #25843 by CorpusJayhawk
Asteroid is back so there is at least some sense of normalcy lurking about.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak

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1 month 3 weeks ago #25844 by sasnak
I was thinking the exact same thing.

It'll feel better when it stops hurting

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