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KU's Most Efficient Scorer

  • CorpusJayhawk
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1 week 3 days ago #25686 by CorpusJayhawk
Who is the guy that you build an offense around from a scoring standpoint? There are players who are keys to an offense that are not scorers. Aaron Miles leads the pack of those players by a mile. Clearly the KU offense when Aaron was playing was built around his ability to set up his teammates and run an efficient offense. But the question I pose is, from a scoring standpoint who do you build an offense around. As, of course, I am wont to do, I develop an equation that attempts to answer this question. Basically it attempts to answer this question, When you focus on getting this guy the ball to score, the team ends up with the highest points per possession. I used to keep track of a stat of plus/minus per minute for every player. But that stat is not available generally. That would be a great way of gauging how a player contributes overall to team scoring but not necessarily individual scoring. In 2008, for instance, Darnell Jackson was third on the team in this stat even though he was not a focus of the offense from a scoring standpoint.

Now what prompted me to ask this question is watching Udoka Azubuike play and reflecting on the fact that he set an NCAA record for best career FG%. Obviously FG% is a key to effective scoring. But you also have to consider 3-pointers versus 2-pointers. Mathematically a 60% FG% for 2-pointers is equivalent to 40% FG% on 3-pointers. But is it really? What is the % of offensive rebounds on a 2 point shot versus a 3 point shot? Also, another huge consideration is, what is the likelihood of being fouled on a 2 pointer versus a 3-pointer. Then, of course, what is the FT% of the player. Udoka had a career FG% of 74.6% which is outrageously great. But he also got fouled a lot and since he only hit 41.7% of his FT's. his scoring efficiency actually went down due to his being fouled. When he mad a shot, his scoring efficiency was 1.49 points per possession when he made a shot attempt without being fouled and that dropped to 1.43 points per possession when he made a shot attempt and was fouled.

The final consideration is tendency to turn the ball over. Every time a player turns the ball over that ends the possession without a score and thus reduces his scoring efficiency. But injecting this stat is tricky since it will tend to punish the guys who handle the ball more frequently. But as I said, this analysis is intended to find those guys who you build an offense around their scoring acumen.

One final note. This evaluation limits to players who were freshmen from 1984 to present because I do not have sufficient stats prior to that time. There are a few guys earlier that would be in the mix. Most notably, Ken Koenigs and Carl Henry. It is also limited top players averaging at least 15 minutes per game. This gives a total set of players numbering 95.

To no one''s surprise, Udoka Azubuike is the guy who exhibited the best scoring efficiency. Every time he touched the ball the Jayhawks averaged 1.14 points per possession. If you use only total shooting efficiency (take out TO's), Udoka is still the man by a long shot with 1.39 points per possession. If you use only FG's and not FT's Udoka's PPP goes to 1.49. Most players improve their PPP when you include FT's. Udoka's goes down. If you include FT's, Joel Embiid gets very close to Udoka at 1.34 PPP. Surprisingly, Rex Walters is also at 1.34. Just for fun I also added in assists to see what impact that would have. As you would surmise, the PG's come to the top. Offenses are built around PG's because they not only can score but facilitate others to score very effectively. The two that stand above the rest are Ryan Robertson and Jacque Vaughn with a PPP of 1.39. But there are 14 players at 1.30 or above, Devon Dotson is only 1.26, BTW. all PG's. When you include assists, Danny Manning and Udoka Azubuike are tied at 1.21. The best big man when assists are included is Mark Randall.

Conclusion
Offenses are built around great point guards for a reason. They facilitate efficient scoring. Ryan Robertson and Jacque Vayghn are the best at KU but there are a host of others that were very close. Rex Walters is the best shooting guard we have had in terms of facilitating scoring. The fact that he shot 41.8% from the 3-point line and 84.9% from the FT line is a huge factor. Overall, Mark Randall is the best big man we have had for facilitating the team scoring but if you were only to count the players ability to efficiently score, Udoka is the man with Joel Embiid a close second. As for next season, Marcus Garrett, the projected PG for next season, has a total team scoring efficiency of 1.19 PPP. Devon Dotson, for his career was 1.26. That worries me a little. SOmething to watch out for.

Just to look at the bottom of the list, who do you cringe when they shoot or who would you not want in the game in crunch time? As for Big men, that would be Ben Davis, BJ Williams and Eric Chenowith. For guards, that would be Keith Harris, Josh Sleby, Quentin Grimes and Lincoln Minor.

Scoring Efficiency

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, wardhawk, porthawk

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1 week 1 day ago #25687 by hairyhawk
Pretty interesting that Landon Lucas is so high on the list. I wonder if there is a way to take into account the load of being responsible to score vs being really good at cleaning up the garbage points. Both are important to the team but the person who is the designated scorer is usually being guarded by the best defender and is asked to get his shot even if the play did not really get them open. I think of Wayne Simien here because quite often we just got the ball to Wayne and asked him to put it in the basket even when he was not really open. Maybe a work rate of shots per minute as a factor.

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1 week 1 day ago #25688 by porthawk
And it appears that the first guard on the list is Cedric Hunter at #30. Found that to be interesting.

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